Future use of the Moon – USA Gov Policy

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its presentation of NASA’s plans to return to the Moon.

A VIBRANT EARTH-MOON FUTURE

Whenever the first human mission to Mars occurs, it will not mean that we are done with the Moon. The windows for launching the two-year mission to Mars open up every few years, and we will continue to conduct human missions to the lunar surface to test systems, conduct scientific investigations, and continue to develop our sustainable lunar presence as we prepare for the optimal launch window.

We will continue to explore the Moon indefinitely — leveraging robotic deliveries provided by CLPS providers, longer duration human missions, and commercial and international

partnerships that will add to the Artemis Base Camp elements NASA puts in place. The LTV, habitable mobility platform and foundation surface habitat will stay on the Moon enabling crews to live on the lunar surface for months at a time. The rovers and crew-tended capabilities on the Moon will be designed to operate autonomously and to work with independent robotic assistants.

In addition to testing our systems for the first mission to Mars, a core purpose of Artemis Base Camp will be to demonstrate new technologies that, over time, will expand our capabilities and reduce the costs of lunar operations. Astronauts at Artemis Base Camp will be testing a wide set of new technologies in six priority areas encompassed by the recently announced Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (i.e. ISRU; surface power; extreme access; excavation and construction; lunar dust mitigation; and extreme environments). Some of these technologies will help from the beginning, such as lunar dust mitigation and enabling operations in extreme environments like the cold of the lunar night. Other technologies are in early development for significant long-term benefits. For example, ISRU will enable the production of fuel, water, and/or oxygen from local materials, enabling sustainable surface operations with decreasing supply needs from Earth. For surface power, our goal is to develop advanced solar collection and a small, lightweight fission power system to support even longer-duration missions and operations on the Moon, and eventually for Mars and beyond. Autonomous manufacturing, excavation, and construction technologies will make infrastructure emplacement more affordable.

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Astronauts will also conduct tests of advanced robotics, including future biomimetic systems that enable more autonomous operations at the Moon and can serve as robotic assistants to the crew. In time, Artemis Base Camp might also include a hopper that could deliver science and technology payloads all over the Moon and which could be operated by crew at Artemis Base Camp and refueled using locally sourced propellant. A lunar far-side radio telescope could also be remotely emplaced and operated from Artemis Base Camp – a sort of backyard radio- telescope at our first encampment on the Moon.

Developing a sustained and vibrant lunar presence will not only require the best of NASA and its international partner space agencies, but also the best of the entire U.S. government and commercial sector. Establishing the infrastructure that will enable additional international and commercial partnerships will result in opportunities for the first international and commercial astronauts on the lunar surface, opening up Earth’s ’s off-shore continent for ongoing human discovery and development. NASA’s unique leadership and capabilities will be combined with innovation and contributions from the same sectors that fuel our nation and economy here on Earth.

_{THE INITIAL HUMAN MARS MISSION}

The success of the first human mission to Mars requires a voyage of stunning technological and operational complexity. The distance from Earth to the Moon is a relatively manageable 250,000 miles. In contrast, Mars is, on average, 140 million miles from Earth. The challenges of a mission to Mars are compounded not only by these distances but by the more dangerous levels and types of radiation that is found in deep space. Mars’ atmosphere – while intriguing from a scientific perspective – also presents distinct challenges for getting humans to and from its surface.

The initial lunar missions will greatly inform our concept of operations for Mars. Every day in deep space increases the probability of catastrophic events occurring. The concept of operations NASA is working toward for the first human mission to Mars is therefore one that reduces trip time significantly and minimizes time spent on the surface to around 30-45 days. Factors NASA will continue to consider include: risks to crew health during transit, both from galactic cosmic ray (GCR) radiation and from potential catastrophic mission events; the complexity of mission operations on the Martian surface; and the complexity and cost of mission systems, such as in-space propulsion, the ability to land heavy payloads, and required surface systems. NASA has targeted conducting a human mission to Mars that can be realized as soon as possible, while still ensuring that our Mars surface capabilities will allow for extensive exploration on our first mission, including a search for Martian life. The Moon will allow us to test and demonstrate significant parts of this mission before sending humans on this epic journey. NASA will have more to share on the strategy for how the Moon prepares us for the first human mission to Mars in the coming months.

Illustration: NASA

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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