Tag: Future Defense

Partners and Security Alliances

To secure vital national security interests at home and abroad, the U.S. should strengthen its existing security alliances while working to build new ones. Engaging global partners through diplomacy, economics, humanitarian aid, security cooperation, and military-to-military relations is among the most notable actions the U.S. can take to ensure continued peace, financial stability, and strategic advantage when gaming out the future of defense.

To endure as a global democratic power with economic and political influence and a resilient forward military footprint, the U.S. must strengthen its geopolitical alliances with longstanding allies while fostering relationships with new partners. Maintaining robust ties with its Five Eyes intelligence partners—Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand—as well as with the North Atlantic Treaty Association is essential.

Equally important are relationships with Japan and South Korea. Key allies in the Middle East, notably Israel and Jordan, among others, will continue to be vital U.S. partners. The U.S. should also cultivate economic and diplomatic cooperation with nontraditional allies in Asia and Africa while re-engaging in the Western Hemisphere with both Latin American and Arctic partners.

Strong offensive measures in the form of soft power initiatives protect vital U.S. interests by ensuring dialogue and enhanced cooperation. Humanitarian and economic aid programs foster good will and build civic capacity while also serving as a powerful check on the rise of authoritarian and autocratic influence. Exporting democracy through American projects and enterprises showcases democratic values such as human rights, personal liberties, and self-determination.

The U.S. military, with its adherence to human rights and the rules of engagement, stands as the global model for how a free and open society should protect itself and its interests. Exporting U.S. values through military engagements, with both exercises and train and assist programs, builds trust and interoperability while increasing readiness and resiliency and further protecting vital U.S. interests abroad. Strengthening global partnerships through military-to-military relations allows the U.S. to maintain an agile forward footprint while bolstering the doctrine of credible deterrence.

 Longstanding bilateral security agreements with Japan and South Korea, which hold considerable historical agency, also serve as prescient alliances in the wake of a rising China.

Supercharging the Innovation Base

The U.S. has long been the global leader in technological innovation because of its investment in government-funded research and development (R&D) that has led to breakthroughs such as the Manhattan Project and the space program. Without increased investment and focus, however, its pre-eminence is at risk.

Historically, the U.S. has outpaced every other country in overall R&D spending, but its lead is quickly diminishing. Over the past two decades, China has rapidly increased its investment in overall R&D, whereas U.S. spending rates have lagged. Today, the U.S. still spends more than any other country, but China is on track to take the lead in global R&D spending by 2030 if current trends continue.

Defense funding for science and technology programs, which have cultivated game-changing dual-use capabilities such as GPS and the Internet, has barely kept pace with inflation, as the military focuses on shorter term and incremental developments. While it is now the private sector, rather than the government, who is the primary funder of scientific R&D globally, private funding cannot replace the type of long-term basic R&D funding that has long-afforded the U.S. economic and military advantage.

Also, because the private sector has a different incentive structure, no single company can match the federal government’s size and investment. The Pentagon must harness private sector technology and innovation at scale to maintain its technological advantage by supporting proven drivers of innovation such as the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the defense research laboratories while fostering new initiatives such as the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and Army Futures Command.

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Most importantly, it must commit to investing in new innovative capabilities at scale by making them programs of record. The U.S. should also re-establish its domestic manufacturing and supply chain capability, which is both an economic driver and a national security imperative. As the COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated, a lack of domestic manufacturing capability and access to reliable supply chains is among our greatest national security and economic vulnerabilities.

Operational Concepts

The military is developing game-changing operational concepts to leverage new innovative technology and thinking; however, it has yet to fully procure the systems and capacity necessary to fully implement these initiatives.

Therefore, the Pentagon must enhance its capability, expertise, and processes to rigorously define military challenges while also designing and correlating programs of record and incorporating them into new operational concepts.

To that end, the military must work with Congress to connect its investments to key priorities in support of operational concepts. It should engage a diverse group of stakeholders, including Congress, academia, think tanks, and the private sector, to develop imaginative solutions to emerging problems while assessing the Pentagon’s efforts.

It is further essential to test, experiment, and wargame new operational concepts and to prototype and test the technologies that underpin them. The most effective military operational concepts and associated military capacity, however, will still be insufficient to address the breadth of the challenges posed by strategic competitors.

 A whole-of-nation effort, including military tools, trade policy, STEM education, diplomatic initiatives, and non-military instruments, is necessary to meet these emerging threats. Without this approach, the U.S. will not be postured to maintain its security and global influence, even if the military is robustly equipped and funded.

 New strategies must effectively dissuade competitors from challenging the U.S. in the gray zone with weapons of economic coercion and information warfare. Conventionally, the U.S. military is no longer assured the complete dominance in air, sea, and space it has enjoyed for decades, as adversaries prioritize weapon systems such as long-range munitions, anti-space capabilities, and cyber forces.

According to the latest Department of Defense assessment, China has doubled its defense spending in the last decade and now has more ships than the U.S. Navy, among the best air defense systems globally, an arsenal of long-range ballistic missiles, and a variety of other means to challenge the U.S.

 A sobering report from the RAND Corporation recently determined that despite significantly outspending China and Russia, the U.S. military could lose a future conflict because it failed to adequately posture and train.

New operational concepts must be devised and employed to meet these challenges by leveraging emerging technologies across multi-domains to ensure the U.S. maintains both credible deterrence and strategic advantage.

Photo: A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon assigned to the 555th Fighter Squadron, Aviano Air Base, Italy, lands on Graf Ignatievo Air Base, Bulgaria, for an exercise in September 2020. Archive photo by Ericka A. Woolever.

Leveraging advanced technology is vital for national defense.  A report from the House Armed Services Committee “Future of Defense Task Force” recently outlined the challenge. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its outline of the important challenge.

Emerging Threats

A complex and evolving array of national security threats are facing the United States, as its political, economic, and military rivals are increasing in stature and capability. Rising powers, notably China and Russia, threaten to cause tectonic shifts in geopolitical plates where, much like the Cold War, the binary notions of war and peace are becoming antiquated. Future conflicts will be increasingly waged in the gray zone, the nebulous battlespace below open combat, where tactics such as economic coercion, cyber espionage, disinformation, and unattributed military forces are employed. Adding to the complexity is the recognition that the nature of warfare is evolving with the weaponization of emerging technologies that changes the way wars are fought and won. The rapidly expanding domains of space and cyberspace are the new frontiers for conflict and will be the battlefield of choice for the opening salvo of any aggressor…

A provocative Iran is lashing out in the Middle East, while North Korea continues its march toward full nuclearization. Terrorism, waged by violent extremist organizations, continues to threaten vital U.S. partners and interests in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, while transnational criminal organizations wreak havoc on vulnerable populations. Divisive politics and a disparate electorate in the homeland further threaten U.S. national security.

The Weaponization of Emerging Technology

A sophisticated array of emerging technologies and new weaponry, in various stages of development, will fundamentally change the nature of conflict along with the very battlespace where it will be fought.

The stakes are high. Whoever achieves superiority in this technological race will enjoy significant military and economic advantage for decades—and possibly into the next century.

Achieving this supremacy will require a whole-of-nation approach, where the distinct advantages of both the private and public sector are harnessed and synthesized. Whereas many of these technologies offer tremendous opportunity for commercial and social transformation, they are also rife with the potential for nefarious use and may exponentially exacerbate threat streams for the U.S. and its global partners.

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Advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum information science, space and cyber and electronic warfare, among others, are making traditional battlefields and boundaries increasingly irrelevant. To remain competitive, the U.S. must recognize this shift and prioritize the development of emerging technologies while also increasing its ability to defend against them.

 Technology is pulling warfare into a post-conventional era, wherein the first hours of conflict will no longer be saturated with aerial bombings and sea landings followed by a ground assault. Initial campaigns will be fought with remote and autonomous systems in the realms of space and cyberspace, where an early attack will take out satellite and communication systems and dismantle the global positioning system (GPS).

Opening salvos could inflict devastating harm on civilians through electronic attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids, along with financial and healthcare systems and networks. Also, while most of the technologies will require substantial funding and development by state actors, others such as cyber and electronic warfare may allow less formidable foes to gain the operational upper hand with limited investment. Therefore, as adversaries build and recapitalize conventional and strategic weapons, a parallel effort will be underway to develop systems that adhere to the David and Goliath paradigm: instead of taking on the giant pound for pound, build nimble and inexpensive sling shots. It is essential for the U.S. to increase its ability to defend against adversaries who will seek early domination in a conflict by disrupting and degrading both civilian and military systems and networks.

The disruption of command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) has become a bedrock operational concept of 21st century warfare. The ability of the U.S. to leverage offensive and defensive capabilities in this realm is paramount to maintaining the global balance of power as well as strategic and conventional military superiority.

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Illustration: House Armed Services Committee

Leveraging advanced technology is vital for national defense.  A report from the House Armed Services Committee “Future of Defense Task Force” recently outlined the challenge. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government provides an outline of the important challenge, with key excerpts.

The United States faces an array of threats to our national security that is nearly unprecedented in its breadth and pace of change. Great power competition from Russia and China, which are both rapidly advancing next-generation warfighting capabilities to leapfrog our legacy systems, presents a dual threat unseen since the military surge of Axis Powers in the 1930s.

The stakes could scarcely be higher. The national security challenges the United States faces today are existential, and they cannot be met by simply doubling down on old models of policy and investment. Our adversaries are surging around the globe in a long-game effort to supplant western-style democracy with a form of authoritarianism that cloaks itself in capitalism as it undermines personal liberties and freedoms. The United States must recognize that without a new commitment to achieving technological superiority, the successes of the 20th century–the American Century–will no longer be assured.

The gravity and complexity of threats emerging to challenge the United States is proliferating as technological advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum information science, and biotechnology transform society and weaponry at an exponential rate. This is occurring as adversarial capability is increasing to the point where the United States may soon lose the competitive military advantage it has enjoyed for decades.

 The free world order the U.S. has led for more than 70 years is now in danger of becoming a historical outlier as an alternate form of authoritarianism, one that seeks to emulate capitalism and supplant western-style democracy as the governing standard, is on the rise.

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 … Congress and the American people must recognize that we face a decisive moment as a nation and as the world’s leading democracy, both of which are in peril until we alter the future of our defense to ensure the future of our peace.

Separate from the House report, the use of high tech responses to national security threats has also been noted in an agreement between NASA and the new U.S. Space Force.

The agreement commits the two organizations to broad collaboration in areas including human spaceflight, U.S. space policy, space transportation, standards and best practices for safe operations in space, scientific research, and planetary defense.
 
“NASA’s partnerships are vital to ensuring America continues to lead the world in the peaceful uses of outer space,” the Space Agency chief Jim Bridenstine said. “This agreement with the U.S. Space Force reaffirms and continues our rich legacy of collaboration with the Defense Department and provides a critical foundation to investigate areas of mutual interest for our distinct civil and defense roles in space.”
 
The memorandum replaces an agreement signed 14 years ago between NASA and the U.S. Air Force Space Command, under which the two organizations exchanged research and development information, sought to reduce duplication of system development, and collaborated in the long-term planning of each organization’s space roadmaps.
 
“NASA and the military share a long history dating back to the late 1950s; there is power in our partnership,” Raymond said. “A secure, stable, and accessible space domain underpins our nation’s security, prosperity and scientific achievement. Space Force looks forward to future collaboration, as NASA pushes farther into the universe for the benefit of all.” 
 
Freedom of action in space provides NASA and allied-nation space agencies the ability to explore and discover, and will enable America’s return to the Moon and subsequent exploration of Mars. The USSF will secure the peaceful use of space, free for any who seek to expand their understanding of the universe, by organizing, training and equipping forces to protect U.S. and allied interests in space.

The Report Continues Tomorrow

Illustration from the House Armed Services Comittee