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Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

IRAN

The President boldly announced from the White House that as long as he is president Iran “will not get nuclear weapons.” In response to Iran’s aggressive actions against the United States Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on Friday announced a new series of sanctions designed to curb the regime’s destructive behavior. He said there are three pieces to America’s anti-terrorism policy toward Iran. 

First, the US will deny Iran the wealth and resources it needs to conduct global terrorism and warfare. The President, Pompeo added, is issuing an executive order authorizing the imposition of “additional sanctions against any individual owning, operating, trading with, or assisting sectors of the Iranian economy, including construction, manufacturing, textiles, and mining,” according to the Secretary.

Second, Pompeo announced 17 specific sanctions against Iran’s largest iron and steel manufacturers, which is expected to cut off billions of dollars of support to the regime and to encourage it to behave more like a normal nation. The final policy change announced was that the United States is taking action against eight senior Iranian officials who advanced the regime’s destabilizing activity and who were involved in this past week’s ballistic missile strike. 

By combining diplomatic and economic efforts the Administration hopes to stop Iran’s terrorist activities and to get the regime in Tehran to agree to “never have nuclear weapons.” The Secretary ended his announcement by pointing out that Washington is concerned about American detained in Iran and it will do what it can to get each of them returned home to their families. After the missile attack Iranian sources said that Iran plans no further actions against the United States at this time. It appears that the regime leadership wants to avoid all-out war with the United States. Intelligence analysts in Washington believe that the recent attacks in Iraq were designed to do little damage. This view is reinforced by the fact that Iran warned Iraqi leaders about the attack three hours prior to it. It can be assumed that Iran knew the government would inform Washington.

VENEZUELA

In a statement released Friday, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo pointed out that Venezuela’s political crisis has led to the flight of more than 4.8 million people.  He called for a “… swift negotiated transition to democracy…” and said it “is the most effective and sustainable route to peace and prosperity in Venezuela. Negotiations could open the path out of the crisis through a transitional government that will organize free and fair elections.”

Later this year Venezuelans will go to the polls to elect a new President and National Assembly members. Pompeo pointed that that the country needs to rebuild its infrastructure and institutions that were “eviscerated by a brutal regime.”

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CHINA

In a statement released by the State Department Spokesperson, Morgan Ortagus, she said that the US is “alarmed that Pastor Wang Yi, leader of the Early Rain Covenant Church in Chengdu, was tried in secret and sentenced to nine years in prison in connection to his peaceful advocacy for religious freedom.”

The United States is calling for his immediate and unconditional release. Pastor Wang Yi, the announcement noted, was originally arrested with “dozens of other congregants on December 9, 2018, during a massive crackdown on Chengdu’s largest unregistered church. He was found guilty during a closed-door trial December 26 on trumped-up charges of “inciting subversion of state power” and “illegal business activities,” with “no defense lawyer present.”

Ortagus said this is yet another example of “Beijing’s intensification of repression of Chinese Christians and members of other religious groups.” The Trump Administration called on Beijing to uphold its international commitments and promises made in its own constitution to promote religious freedom for all individuals, including members of ethnic and religious minorities and those who worship outside of official state-sanctioned institutions. In recent months President Xi has allowed some religious activity in the older, more traditional religions in China. Analysts in Washington surmise this is to tamp down social unrest in a country facing immense domestic challenges going into 2020.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

IRAQ

According to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, the US is closely monitoring the situation at the American Embassy in Iraq. He said that Washington never contemplated abandoning the site and added that numerous times a day: “I made clear when I spoke with the Iraqi leadership that the Iraqis have the responsibility to keep our facilities safe.” The Iraqi government recently met their obligation and has deployed counterterrorism forces to property the property.

IRAN

When asked if the American people should contemplate being on a war footing in 2020 over Iran’s behavior, the Secretary responded that the activity Iran supported in Iraq was state-sponsored terrorism. Just a day after he made that comment a US rocket attack at Baghdad International Airport killed several Iranian military leaders including General Qassim Soleimani, one of the country’s most revered Islamic Revolutionary Guard leaders. Pompeo pointed out that the Trump Administration takes a fundamentally different approach to responding to terrorism. He noted that “We have starved them of resources, we have denied them access, we have put pressure on the Iranian leadership, and I think you see that.” The Secretary previously on several occasions labeled Soleimani as equally dangerous as the ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was in the past.

NORTH KOREA

In a state media announcement, North Korea said the world will “witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK” and that in the near future, it is ending its moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile testing.

In response to the announcement Secretary Pompeo said he was “more concerned about it when this administration took office.  We were in a place where it was very likely that we would have ended up in a war with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea.  President Trump has taken an approach where we’ve tried to develop a diplomatic pathway.” 

When asked if he believes North Korea has reneged on its commitment to President Trump, Pompeo responded that if it is true, it is “deeply disappointing.” He noted:I was there when Chairman Kim made the commitment that said he would not engage in intercontinental missiles or test-firing of their nuclear weapons, testing their nuclear weapons systems.  He made those commitments to President Trump in exchange for President Trump agreeing not to conduct large-scale military exercises.  We’ve lived up to our commitments.  We continue to hold out hope that he’ll live up to his as well.” 

RUSSIA

Inside the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2020 is Section 7503(d), also known as the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act (PEESA) of 2019. It calls for those companies involved to immediate cease construction of Russia’s underwater Nord Stream 2 pipeline or face sanctions. The law gives the Secretary of State up to 60 days to issue a report to Congress to identify violating entities. Pompeo reportedly will comply to the letter of the law and report promptly to Congress any violations.

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According to a recent statement released by the State Department, the pipeline is a “tool Russia is using to support its continued aggression against Ukraine,” as Russia seeks to prevent it from integrating more closely with Europe and the United States.  The underwater pipeline will enable Russia to bypass Ukraine for gas transit to Europe, which the State Department says “would deprive Ukraine of substantial transit revenues and increase its vulnerability to Russian aggression.” It also would create an economic dependency on Russia which European nations would have a difficult time bypassing both economically and politically in the future.

Washington’s intention is to stop construction of Nord Stream 2. According to the State Department the US position has been consistent across multiple administrations. The statement said it is “part of a longstanding practice to promote energy security through diversification of energy supplies by country of origin, path of delivery, and fuel types, including renewables.  Anyone engaged in the energy trading business ought to do it under fair terms, which are transparent, and operate according to market principles.”

SYRIA

Secretary Pompeo called the Russian Federation’s and China’s veto last week of a Security Council resolution that allows for humanitarian aid to reach millions of Syrians “shameful.” The resolution put forward by Germany, Belgium and Kuwait, and supported by the U.S. would have enabled life-saving assistance to reach at least four million Syrians throughout the country, according to Pompeo. 

“Unfortunately,” he said, “the Russian Federation for the 14th time, and China, for the 8th time, failed in this commitment. Both countries preferred instead to provide cover and support for its junior partner in Damascus; thus placing the lives of millions of innocent civilians in the balance at the height of winter, while further threatening civilians by supporting the continued Assad regime and Russian military offensive on Idlib.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay


Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

LEBANON

It appears Lebanon is forming a new government that may be led by a prime minister who is a member of Hezbollah, or at least one who has the strong backing of Hezbollah, according to a senior, unnamed State Department official. In the past the United States had had to work with Lebanonese leaders affiliated with Hezbollah. He added: “Our principles on Lebanon, notwithstanding who may or may not be the next prime minister – because although we have a prime minister-designate, it’s unclear whether they will be able to find a government, be able to form a government – is that this government must be capable of and committed to pursuing reform and fighting corruption.”

Washington is highly skeptical that a government led by Hizballah would be capable of or committed to fighting corruption as it is an organization that depends greatly on corruption for its survival and funding its criminal enterprise and terrorist activities, the official noted. He also added that no government, including Great Britain, China, Russia, France, Italy or the United States is going to bail out Lebanon financially if it is not committed wholeheartedly to financial reform and stopping corruption.

LIBYA

As 2019 ends and a new year begins Libya remains an enormous and escalating concern for Washington. Field Marshal Shalifa Belqasim Haftar is engaged in a second civil in Libya that threatens to further destabilize the country. According to a senior State Department official, there is increased Egyptian support for Hiftar, but he is “most concerned about increased Russian support for Hiftar, increasing numbers of Russian mercenaries on the ground, increasing number – amount of violence, shelling of civilian areas in Tripoli, and of course, the prospect of increased Turkish involvement….” Washington is pushing for a negotiated diplomatic solution and continues to back the Berlin Process which is attempting to develop a consensus on governance and security arrangements.

RUSSIA

The United States is concerned that Nord Stream 2, an undersea pipeline Russia is attempting to lay, will be used in support of Moscow’s campaign of aggression against the Ukraine. The 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) signed by President Trump, calls for immediate cessation of construction-related activity in a “good faith wind-down” by parties that have sold, leased, or provided vessels engaged in laying pipe at depths of over 100 feet for the construction of Nord Stream 2 or face American sanctions.

According to the State Department, the pipeline would allow Russia to bypass the Ukraine for gas transit to Europe and deprive that country of “substantial transit revenues on imports of Russian natural gas.” It also portends a heavy reliance on Russia by western Europe which created both economics and political vulnerabilities in the region. The United States and most of western Europe oppose Nord Stream 2. 

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According to the new NDAA legislation, the Secretary of State has up to 60 days to issue a report to Congress to identify violating entities. This is consistent with past US Administrations that also opposed the construction. Diversification of Europe’s energy supplies will continue to promote security for the region by reducing the influence of geopolitics, according to the State Department. Purchasing US LNG already has saved European consumers $8 billion by enabling countries to negotiate lower prices.

PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, in a press interview this week, called on the Palestinian Authority and Israel to meet to try to work out a political solution to the complex territorial issues plaguing the area. The result, he added, must be one that provides a beneficial outcome for both sides.

Pompeo pointed out that “the parties have to have leaders that are prepared to do things that are difficult. But more importantly, they need to be prepared to engage in a set of conversations….” He said that arguing over who is right or wrong as a matter of international law is not going to get peace. “It’s a complex political problem only resolvable between the Israelis and the Palestinians. We’re – we the United States is committed to help facilitating that. We’ll do what we can.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

ISRAEL

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced that the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Fatou Bensouda has concluded her preliminary examination into the so-called “situation in Palestine” and asked the ICC judges to confirm that the Court may exercise jurisdiction over the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza. By taking this action, he pointed out, “the Prosecutor expressly recognized that there are serious legal questions about the Court’s authority to proceed with an investigation.”

The United States firmly opposes actions seeking to target Israel unfairly. Previously, Washington noted that as was made clear when the Palestinians purported to join the Rome Statute, the US does not believe the Palestinians qualify as a sovereign state, and they therefore are not qualified to obtain full membership, or participate as a state in international organizations, entities, or conferences, including the ICC.

IRAN

Iran has been a state sponsor of terrorism for many years using a campaign of plausible deniability to hide behind their proxies. A senior State Department official in recognizing this point said: “Well, that’s not us; it’s Hizballah,” or, “That’s not us; it’s the militias in Bahrain that are blowing up oil pipelines.”

He stated that the united States has “stripped away the veneer of deniability with our designation and made clear that it’s not just Iran supporting terrorism, it’s Iran engaging in terrorism itself. I think that messaging is important.” There are practical consequences of the terrorist designation.  The most important of those, according to the official, is the material support statute. “So, when the Secretary of State designates a group as a foreign terrorist organization, that unleashes a federal criminal prohibition on providing material support or resources to that group. That prohibition was not in place when we had previously sanctioned the IRGC under different sanctions authorities,” he said. Now that that FTO criminal liability regime is in place, that substantially increases the legal risk that second parties and third parties face when they engage with the IRGC.  

VENEZUELA 

In a recent special briefing at the State Department,  Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams, and the charge d’affaires of the US’s Venezuelan Affairs Unit James Story presented the latest developments with regard to the situation on the ground in Venezuela. Abrams pointed out that the National Assembly is the last bastion of Democracy left in the country and it is under attack by the Maduro regime. Of the 167 deputies, 32 have been detained, forced into exile, or had their constitutional immunities from prosecution revoked, he said. 

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Reports indicate these attacks have increased in the last week. Abrams pointed out that the “regime’s captive supreme court removed the immunity of four additional parliamentarians so they can be tried for alleged crimes against the state, including treason, after the regime’s attorney general, Tarek William Saab, accused them of being involved in an alleged terrorist plot.” In addition, he added, “…on December 17, two of the four denounced SEBIN intelligence agents for threatening their homes and their families.  Why?  The two deputies said the regime’s motive was to stop the deputies from voting in favor of Juan Guaido on January 5th in favor of his reelection as National Assembly president.”

James Story noted that “The National Assembly will vote on January 5, and the regime is using a combination of threats, arrests, and bribes – up to $500,000 per vote, we have been told – to stop the reelection of Juan Guaido.  Threaten, exile, detain, bribe – that is step one.  Step two will be to try to grab control of the National Assembly by preventing free elections in 2020.  The Venezuelan constitution calls for National Assembly elections next year, and opinion polls make it obvious the opposition will win them – if they’re free.”

“The United States, the other nearly 60 nations that have recognized Juan Guaido as interim president because the May 2018 elections were fraudulent, and every country that seeks a peaceful way out for Venezuela through free elections can see exactly what’s going on in Caracas,” according to Abrams.  That is why, he said, the United States will continue the sanctions and strengthen them. 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

CHINA

Washington and Beijing have been locked in a trade war that has witnessed China’s GDP contract to levels that indicate the country will be unable to meet its 10-year growth plan projections. The pressure put on China by the Trump Administration appears to be succeeding. President Trump tweeted that “We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more.” 

Although details have not been confirmed it appears to be the beginning of the end of the trade dispute. China has agreed to purchase $50 billion in farm goods from the US over the next two years along with changes in the financial services sector, intellectual property rights and currency reform. Tariffs remain a bargaining chip as further Phase 2 negotiations must be conducted to resolve the remaining issues.

IRAN

Secretary Pompeo, in a press briefing Wednesday, pointed out that a number of Americans still are being held against their will by Iran. The US is following every opening it sees to get the people out. According to Pompeo, Washington is continuing its maximum pressure campaign. As part of that campaign, he said, the US is working to make sure every nation complies with the JCPOA. China is no exception, he added. Washington has asked China not to take Iranian crude oil. The Secretary also said that the United States will “continue to impose our sanctions regime on those countries that are violating, especially when the violations relate to their WMD programs. That’s important for the Middle East.  It’s important for our friend and ally, Israel.  It’s important for the United States and for the whole world.  And so these sanctions are aimed not at China, not at the Iranian people, but at the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran that is engaged in activity that poses threats around the world.” The US goal is to forced Iran to behave as a “normal nation.”

NATO

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The Secretary said the US has taken corrective actions to ensure NATO is an organization for our times. He pointed out that Washington is making “sure that the correct adversaries were identified, that we were fighting the right fight.”

And second, he added, the President “rightly recognized that there needed to be burden-sharing in a way that there was not, and he demanded that other countries step forward not just for America and for the American taxpayers – that’s certainly important – but it’s important for those countries too to step up and commit to defending themselves.”

Pompeo believes that Washington has made real progress. He said it amounts to $130 billion so far, with another roughly $400 billion to be paid into NATO between now and a couple years from now He called these significant changes as they amount to over half a trillion dollars in increased defense spending inside of NATO not coming from the American taxpayers. Canada and Germany are just two of the nations that have fallen short of the agreed upon 2% payment to NATO.  

RUSSIA

In a December 9 interview, Secretary Pompeo spokes about the US-Russia relationship. He noted that there’s “work that we can do alongside Russia, we have an obligation to do it for the American people.” He added that he hoped Foreign Minister Lavrov and he could make progress on that. One area the US is working on is business-to-business relationships. Another is arms control issues between our two countries. Pompeo noted that the US wants to bring China into that discussion as well.  

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

IRAN-IRAQ

Reports are out again that Iran is storing large caches in Iraq and that it is believed they may be nuclear capable. A State Department official traveling in Morocco said this is not news and that he “gave a backgrounder… two months ago or more… where I said very clearly… Iran is storing ballistic missiles in Iraq. I’ve said it a number of times in background briefings in the bullpen. So this is not news; this should not be any news to you.” Many in the media are treating this as a new development in the region.

Iran has been developing and deploying missiles throughout the region before and after the United States pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal. Many analysts believe Iran’s intent is to allow it to conduct a “shadow war” with a level of deniability. Tehran could try to claim it is not responsible for the actions of other states or rogue organizations if the weapons are used offensively.

According to the official Secretary of State Michael Pompeo believes it is incredibly problematic that right now, as Iraq is in the process of trying to sort out a new government and a way ahead, that “Qasem Soleimani is there in all these meetings, meddling, essentially; that Iran is – is trying to tilt the balance of – or the impact, the trajectory of these key sort of Iraqi matters.”

He added that Washington is holding accountable Iraqi – Iranian-backed militias that are killing protesters. “We’re supporting the protesters’ legitimate grievances, and we are talking to Iraqi officials about what we think – well, we are supporting the Iraqi Government, whatever government that will come out. We have a policy of not meddling in government formation.”

CHINA

In a press conference in Portugal Secretary Pompeo was asked about Hwawei regarding the 5G network security challenge to other nations. He said: “We’ve approached this very consistently everywhere.  It begins with American national security.  So we have the privacy interests of American citizens that we want to make sure and protect.  And so as we think about where Americans’ information will be, we want to make sure that that information only gets into networks that we trust and that we’re confident that won’t end up in the hands of a malign actor or the Chinese Communist Party.” The 5G rollout is expected to occur in 2020. It has the potential to be used by China to gain a strategic advantage over foreign governments and citizens by delivering vast amounts of data to Chinese intelligence organizations.

Pompeo said the United States recognizes the sovereignty of every nation and their right to make decisions for themselves. But, he added, “we have tried for these past couple years to make clear to our friends all around the world of the intended risks, and that they’ll do so via a science and technology-based set of risks.” The security question concerns the privacy of information on non-Chinese citizens. Pompeo noted: “The leadership in Europe has a responsibility to ensure that the networks on which European private citizens’ information flows are secure and safe and trusted and this information won’t flow to places that that information ought not to be. And so our mission, the United States mission, has been to share what we know, what we understand, and then how America is thinking about decisions we will have to make in light of where American information travels as well.”

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EUROPEAN UNION

According to Morgan Ortagus, State Department Spokesperson, on December 3, the European Union (EU) Council identified serious risks posed to 5G telecommunications networks if they are built using untrusted vendors. In the future these networks could form the backbone of the critical infrastructure of national economies and be subject to manipulation by China. Washington welcomed the acknowledgement and Ortagus said the US urged its European partners and allies to “ensure only trusted vendors participate in any part of their future 5G networks.”

Later in December the European Union is expected to release its 5G risk mitigation toolbox. Ortagus said the US hopes its recommendations will “include strong measures to address the risks identified in today’s statement and in the EU’s Risk Assessment published in October 2019.”

Washington’s position is that Chinese telecommunications firms such as Huawei and ZTE must comply with the directives of the government of the People’s Republic of China, without allowing it any meaningful checks and balances that would prevent misuse of data by officials.

 Allowing these vendors anywhere in a country’s 5G networks would present critical risks to the privacy, human rights, and security of its citizens. 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

ISRAEL

Are the settlements in Israel illegal? Previously, the President previously said the country not in compliance with recognized international law. But now, according to Secretary of State Pompeo, the US is revisiting the issue and has decided the “ground truth” is that Israel’s settlement’s are, in fact, not illegal per se.

The Israeli courts are quite capable of making determinations about particular settlements, he pointed out. Resolution of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians “is going to be a political resolution, Pompeo added. “We want to create the maximum space for that political resolution. And so our legal conclusion we think facilitates the – an increased likelihood that we can ultimately see a political resolution between Israel and the Palestinian people.”

IRAN

The Trump Administration continues to deny Iran the means to conduct terrorist activities, according to Pompeo. In response to recent events where over 100 protesters were shot by the Iranian government, the State Department said its efforts to contain Iran’s illegal behavior are continuing unabated. Pompeo said Washington intends to deny the kleptocrats  in charge of the Iranian regime, “the resources to foment terror and to, frankly, punish their own citizens as well, and to put their citizens at risk by underwriting Hizballah and Shia militias in Iraq. So that’s been our effort, our international effort.”

The Islamic Republic of Iran leadership’s recent decision about removing some of the gas subsidies fomented significant political protests against the regime leadership. The government in Tehran also shut off the internet “so that they could engage in activities essentially in the dark, without communications. And second, they instigated a political crackdown,” noted Pompeo. He said that while Washington could not yet verify the numbers several international human rights groups have reported that at least 100 were killed by the regime. 

Unlike the Obama Administration, President Trump’s has not refrained from sending out messages of support to the protesters. Pompeo pointed out that the President is “not fueling those regime thugs by providing them resources, while the previous administration put $150 million in an airplane and sent it across to the Iranians. We have done everything we can to deny the regime the resources they need to foment this bad behavior and their imperialist tendencies all around the region.”

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HONG KONG

When the Chinese government made a commitment to the people of Hong Kong in 1997 that upon becoming part of China, they would still adhere to a set of rules labelled “one country, two systems.” Beijing agreed at the time to guarantee the set of basic law freedoms for the people of Hong Kong. Pompeo said that Washington’s request to the Chinese Communist Party leadership, General Secretary Xi, is that he “honor the commitment that China made to those people.”

The protesters in Hong Kong, according to Pompeo, “simply want Chinese Government in Beijing to honor the promises that were made to them, and President Trump has said very clearly we want there to be no violence on either side. We want Beijing to handle the situation politically, to resolve this conflict in a way that reflects the basic understanding of one country and two systems, and honor the autonomy that the Hong Kong people are permitted under what China – the Chinese Government of Beijing promised to them.”

The world is watching political developments in Hong Kong as they continue festering with ongoing protests and crackdowns by Beijing. Pompeo added that “We’re all trying to find a political resolution to these protests and the demands of the people there in Hong Kong, and we hope that that happens. In the event that – I think President Trump said – in the event that there was a hand that was too heavy or there was violence that wasn’t reflective of an appropriate response, I think President Trump has said, boy, makes it much harder for him or for anyone to deal with Beijing in trade or other issues….” The Secretary added he is hopeful that this won’t be the case and that there is a positive outcome. 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

IRAN

Following Vice President Mike Pence’s declaration on November 20 that the American people will stand with the people of Iran, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has vowed to expose the Iranian regime’s brutality and the violent campaign against Iranian protesters. 

Pompeo said: “I have asked the Iranian protestors to send us their videos, photos, and information documenting the regime’s crackdown on protestors. The U.S. will expose and sanction the abuses.” Washington continues to monitor the ongoing protests in Iran and the resulting deaths. Pompeo called on the regime to cease its violence against its own people and to restore Iranian access to a free and open Internet. The choice, according to the Secretary, is with the regime.

In a recently issued statement, the US Government announced that in response to Iran’s uranium enrichment program at the Fordow facility, the United States will terminate the sanctions waiver related to the facility on December 15, 2019. US intelligence sources admit there is not good reason for Iran to resume enrichment at this site and that it simply is a new case of “nuclear brinksmanship.” Washington is seeking comprehensive negotiations that address the full range of Iran’s threats in their entirety. Pompeo pointed out that Washington’s goal remains for Iran to behave as a “normal nation.”

ARMS CONTROL

Earlier in the year, President Trump said that the United States will not negotiate on the issue of missile defense. Pompeo says that the Administration examined this issue and decided the facts on the ground had changed as only one party to the treaty was abiding by it. He added that it made no sense to stay in it.

According to Pompeo, the US worked with its European allies to ensure there was unanimity, that each nation understood the risks, costs and only then moved forward together in declaring that Russia was in violation of the treaty. Pompeo stated that “President Trump will never allow America to enter into any arms control agreement that doesn’t make sense for the United States of America or to renew any existing arms control agreement that expires if it no longer makes sense for America.”

European partners to make sure that there was unanimity, that we understood the risks, that we understood the costs, and then moved forward together, declaring that Russia was in violation and that the appropriate thing to do was for the United States to leave that treaty.  That goes for a broader set of arms control issues.  President Trump will never allow America to enter into any arms control agreement that doesn’t make sense for the United States of America or to renew any existing arms control agreement that expires if it no longer makes sense for America. He also pointed out that the world has changed dramatically since the signing of the treaty. 

ISRAEL

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In a recent press conference, Secretary Pompeo pointed out despite the settlement announcement in Israel “there hasn’t been much support for Israel in the years leading up to this.  It’s hard to imagine more isolation….” Some analysts overseas say that the Administration’s policy reversal is close to breaking the law, and at a minimum is inconsistent with international law.

UKRAINE

“I am proud of what this administration has done with respect to Ukraine,” stated Pompeo. “We reversed the massive failures of the Obama administration’s policy towards Ukraine, which truly did risk the lives of Ukrainian people and allowed Vladimir Putin to take Crimea and to fight in the Donbas against a group of Ukrainians who wanted nothing more than to defend their nation but were given just blankets and nonlethal equipment.”

 HONG KONG

Secretary Pompeo recently stated that the Administration wants to see China abide by the 1997 joint declaration concerning the governance of Hong Kong by Beijing.  He added that making public demands of China and threatening consequences would not help the situation there. The government in Beijing, he noted, is aware of the situation and the consequences of any action it takes.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

Situation in Hong Kong

The United States is watching the situation in Hong Kong with grave concern.  ‎We condemn violence on all sides, extend our sympathies to victims of violence regardless of their political inclinations, and call for all parties— police and protestors— to exercise restraint.‎  We repeat President Trump’s call for a humane resolution to the protests.

The increased polarization within Hong Kong society underscores the need for a broad-based and sincere dialogue between the government, protestors, and citizenry writ large.  The United States urges the Hong Kong government to build on its dialogue with the Hong Kong public and begin efforts to address the underlying concerns driving the protests.  We also urge the protestors to respond to efforts at dialogue.

The United States believes that Hong Kong’s autonomy, its adherence to the rule of law, and its commitment to protecting civil liberties are key to preserving its special status under U.S. law, as well as to the success of “One Country, Two Systems” and Hong Kong’s future stability and prosperity.  We urge Beijing to honor the commitments it made in the Sino-British Joint Declaration, including commitments that Hong Kong will “enjoy a high degree of autonomy” and that the people of Hong Kong will enjoy human rights the freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly— core values that we share with Hong Kong.

Secretary Pompeo’s Call with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi

The following is attributable to Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus:

Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo spoke today with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi. Secretary Pompeo emphasized that peaceful public demonstrations are a fundamental element of all democracies. The Secretary deplored the death toll among the protesters as a result of the Government of Iraq’s crackdown and use of lethal force, as well as the reports of kidnapped protesters. Secretary Pompeo urged Prime Minister Abd al-Mahdi to take immediate steps to address the protesters’ legitimate grievances by enacting reforms and tackling corruption. He reaffirmed the United States’ enduring commitment to a strong, sovereign, and prosperous Iraq, as outlined in our bilateral Strategic Framework Agreement. Secretary Pompeo pledged to continue to support the Iraqi Security Forces in fighting ISIS.

On South Sudan’s Failure to Form a Unity Government

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The United States is gravely disappointed with the failure of President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar to agree on the formation of a Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity by the established deadline of November 12.  Their inability to achieve this basic demonstration of political will for the people of South Sudan calls into question their suitability to continue to lead the nation’s peace process.  In light of this development, the United States will reevaluate its relationship with the Government of South Sudan.  We will work bilaterally and with the international community to take action against all those impeding South Sudan’s peace process.

The United States looks to work in partnership with the region to establish a new paradigm to achieve peace and a successful political transition in South Sudan and will continue to stand with the people of South Sudan during this difficult period.

International Day to End Impunity for Crimes Against Journalists

In far too many places around the world, journalists are killed, tortured, jailed, and harassed for reporting that exposes the abuses of corrupt regimes, undermines the work of terrorist and criminal organizations, gives voice to overlooked communities, and counters disinformation.

As of December 2018, more than 250 journalists remain jailed around the world, with Turkey, China, and Egypt among the worst offenders. Members of the media and bloggers also remain imprisoned in countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Vietnam, Azerbaijan, Mexico, and Nicaragua.

On this International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists, the United States remembers those reporters killed while doing their jobs, and calls for an immediate end to all threats, intimidation, and violence against journalists and other media professionals for their work. Our nation’s unwavering support for press freedom is enshrined in our constitution, and the United States will call out those who seek to undermine this essential component of any healthy society.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

UKRAINE

At a press conference in Germany, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo was questioned about the validity of a setback in US relations with the Ukraine. The United States has provided $390 million in security assistance and defense assistance to the country. The Secretary said the United States will continue to fight corruption there. He added that Europe understands deeply “the challenges of corruption in Ukraine.” Pompeo pointed out that this issue has been at the “center of the State Department’s mission set,” and is something the Department worked on last year and will work on again in 2020 by helping to ensure President Zelensky has the “opportunity to root out corruption inside of his own country.”

 IRAN

Iran remains the bad boy on the block when it comes to nuclear issues. Its latest nuclear escalations reflect the regime’s intentions all along: to extort the international community into accepting its violence and terror while it undermines the sovereignty of its neighbors, according to the State Department. In a statement by Secretary Pompeo released this week, he said that members of the international community who are rightly concerned with Iran’s latest attacks and provocations should “imagine how Iran would behave with a nuclear weapon. The United States will never allow this to happen.”

Iran’s expansion of proliferation-sensitive activities raises concerns that Iran is positioning itself to have the option of a rapid nuclear breakout. Pompeo charged that Iran’s leaders are using nuclear extortion and that the world must serious steps to increase pressure. 

SYRIA

A senior State Department official claimed Russia’s involvement in the Middle East, and Syria and Turkey in particular, was a desperate act. He added that while the Russians don’t think President of Syria won, they are “comfortable” he will survive. The Russians are trying to determine now to move forward in the region, according to the official. He pointed out that Moscow has “played a fairly large role in ensuring that this constitutional committee [in Geneva] would be set up indicates that they know that they cannot simply embrace Assad’s never say yes, never budge, simply they shall not pass policies.  It’s not going to get half the population that’s fled their homes back; it’s not going to get the international community to open up its coffers; it’s not going to get the fighting in the end to stop.  So therefore – and not going to get all of the armies that are now swirling around inside Syria to go home.  So therefore, they’re willing to do this.”

CHINA

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The Uighur minority in western China continue to be threatened, arrested, tortured and harmed in other ways by the government in Beijing. In response to the ongoing harassment and ill-treatment of this minority Secretary Pompeo issued a strong statement condemning Beijing’s actions in the region. It said the “United States remains deeply troubled by multiple reports that the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has harassed, imprisoned, or arbitrarily detained family members of Uighur Muslim activists and survivors of Xinjiang internment camps who have made their stories public.  In some cases, these abuses occurred shortly after meetings with senior State Department officials…The courage of Uighur advocates to speak out is vital to unearthing the truth about the PRC’s abuses of human rights, including repression of freedom of religion.  We once again call on Beijing to cease all harassment of Uighurs living outside of China, to release all those arbitrarily detained, and to allow families to communicate freely without repercussions.” In a recent interview the Secretary pointed out that the world must recognize what is happening in China and stand up against the atrocities.

EUROPE

The European allies of the United States faced criticism by Secretary Pompeo for their lack of resolve in implementing economic sanctions against Iran and terrorist groups including Hezbollah, Hamas, and others. He did acknowledge that recently Europe is beginning to recognize that the Iranians are moving in the wrong direction. Referring to reports of Iran’s enrichment of uranium,  fissile material, the Secretary noted that he believes “the Europeans will come to see this for what it is:  a regime that is intent on using nuclear – nuclear material to blackmail, to try and extort money from Europe or from the West.” Washington is continuing to urge its European allies to support sanctions.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay