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NORTH KOREA

Officials from the United States and the United Kingdom met in London with industry leaders from maritime insurance companies, commodity traders, and other relevant parties, to discuss steps the private sector can take to prevent illicit shipping, trade, and other sanctions evasion activities that North Korea uses to generate revenue for its UN-prohibited nuclear and missile programs, according to the Office of the US State Department Spokesperson. 

North Korea, despite UN sanctions, continues to rely heavily on illicit shipping activities. Discussions centered around proactive measures the maritime could employ to protect against the provision of insurance for vessels engaged in illicit, prohibited activities with North Korea, disrupting North Korean-linked shipping, and enhanced public-private cooperation.

Washington’s goal is to create a final, fully verifiable denuclearization of North Korea. The State Department announcement added that the “full implementation of North Korean-related UN Security Council resolutions by all countries is crucial to a successful diplomatic outcome. The international community must continue to implement and enforce these resolutions until North Korea denuclearizes.”

MAGNITSKY SANCTIONS

The State Department announced the United States imposed sanctions on seventeen Saudi Arabian individuals for serious human rights abuse resulting from their roles in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi at the Consulate of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul, Turkey, on October 2. A press statement issued by Secretary Pompeo stated that “This action was taken under the authority of Executive Order 13818, which implements and builds upon the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. As a result of this action, all of these individuals’ assets within U.S. jurisdiction are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them. At the time of Khashoggi’s killing, these individuals occupied positions in the Royal Court and several ministries and offices of the Government of Saudi Arabia.”

Since the killing of Khashoggi, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has attempted to put distance between the Crown Prince and others connected to the assassination. Western leaders have almost uniformly condemned the action and demanded that the Saudi government take immediate punitive action to determine the details, and identity, of those involved in the killing.

NEW HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE STEERING COUNCIL 

To further optimize the State Department and USAID’s humanitarian assistance, the Secretary of State announced he has established a new senior-level mechanism for coordinating and overseeing U.S. humanitarian assistance – the Humanitarian Assistance Steering Council. The
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purpose of the Council, he stated, “is to coordinate U.S. government efforts in order to achieve seamless, efficient, and effective delivery of humanitarian assistance overseas in support of U.S. foreign policy objectives, including promoting burden-sharing and UN humanitarian reform.”

UKRAINE

The State Department spokesperson announced: “The United States joins our European Allies and partners in condemning the November 11 sham “elections” in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine. Yesterday’s illegitimate processes were an attempt by Moscow to institutionalize its Donbas proxies, the so-called “Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.” These entities have no place within the Minsk agreements or within Ukraine’s constitutional government, and they should be dismantled along with the illegal armed formations.”

If Russia calculated the November 11 illegal “elections” would lead to international respect for its proxies, the international reaction proves it was mistaken, according to the Department. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has refused to monitor the election, calling it a “farce,” and the UN Security Council recently denounced Russia’s actions.

The European Union and the United States are in close alignment on this issue and plan to continue to impose Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia “until Moscow fully implements the Minsk agreements and returns control of Crimea to Ukraine,” according to the Department Spokesperson.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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CHINA

Secretary Pompeo hosted the U.S.-China Diplomatic & Security Dialogue where leaders from both nations participated in a “friendly” and “constructive” dialogue on issues affecting the U.S.-China relationship and also made preparations for meetings between the US and Chinese leaders during the upcoming G20 meeting.

Secretary Pompeo addressed continuing concerns “about China’s activities and militarization in the South China Sea.” He said he has pressed China to live up to its past commitments in this area. “Regarding our strong ties with a democratic Taiwan,” he added, “I reiterated the U.S. policy has not changed and that we are concerned about China’s increasing efforts to coerce others, constraining Taiwan’s international space. And finally, I stated the United States and the international communities will continue to express our concerns with respect to China’s repression of religious groups – Christian, Buddhists, and 800,000 to possibly millions of Muslims that have been denied their freedoms.”

EUROPE AND EURASIA

The State Department announced that the U.S. is imposing financial sanctions on three individuals and nine entities that are supporting Russia’s attempt to integrate Crimea region of Ukraine through private investment and privatization projects or those that are engaging in serious human rights abuses in furtherance of Russia’s occupation or control over parts of Ukraine.

The action reinforces the Crimea Declaration of July 25, 2018, which states that the United States does not and will not recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Crimea. The State Department Spokesperson’s office added that “The designations underscore the United States’ steadfast partnership with Ukraine and the European Union in unified opposition to Russia’s illegal purported annexation and occupation of Crimea and use of force to control parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Eastern Ukraine.”

IRAN

The day after US elections Secretary Pompeo spoke about Iranian sanctions with BBC Persian. When asked if there was  any sign that the Iranian leaders are coming to the table to have negotiations, he said that the United States has not seen any indication yet but is “very hopeful that they will do that.”  He added that “We think it’s what the Iranian people would want them to do. Remember the purpose. The purpose is to stop Iran’s destabilizing influence in the region, assassination campaigns in Europe, work to support Lebanese Hizballah that’s threatened Americans and Israelis, and using Iranian people’s wealth to foment this terror around the world is not what the Iranian people want.” The American effort is aimed at getting the Iranian leadership to understand this isn’t in the best interests of their country or their people and to try to push for a change in their behavior.
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None of the sanctions Washington imposed prevent humanitarian assistance. They include extensive exemptions for medicine, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural imports. The goal of the Administration is to cause a change in state behavior, according to the Secretary, not to harm the Iranian people.

RUSSIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

At a State Department briefing on November 7, Deputy Spokesperson Robert Palladino discussed upcoming meetings in Moscow. He urged all countries to support a direct dialogue between the Government of Afghanistan and the Taliban to reach an end to the war. He said: “we’ve been clear that no government, including Russia, can be a substitute for the Afghan Government in direct negotiations with the Taliban.”

The United States, in coordination with the Afghan Government, plans to send a representative to the working level to observe the discussions

Palladino pointed out that Washington made a determination against the Russian Government over its use of Novichok nerve agent against Sergei and Yulia Skripal back on August 6th. Under the act, he said, “the chemical biological weapons act, the Russian Government had until yesterday, November 6th, to take steps to meet the conditions required under the act… by yesterday, it had not done so, so we followed what was required under the act and we informed the Congress that we were unable to certify that the Russian Federation was in compliance. And so what – as we move forward we will be proceeding with our statutory requirements.” The U.S. wants to ensure that sanctions and handled carefully and will be effective. Washington has not set a start date yet.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Foreign Policy Update

NORTH KOREA

The North Koreans continue to  violate international norms of behavior and United Nations prohibited maritime shipping and other illicit transactions. The US State Department, together with Canada, France, Japan and the UK welcomed the announcement of the 1718 Committee on UN designations of vessels Shang Yuan Bao, New Regent, and Kum Un San 3 for engaging in UN-prohibited ship-to-ship transfers of refined petroleum to North Korean ships.

The State Department Spokesperson said that the United States will continue “monitoring and surveillance activities to detect UN-prohibited illicit North Korean maritime activities, with a particular focus on detecting and disrupting ship-to-ship transfers of refined petroleum to North Korean tankers in the East China Sea.”

CHINA TRADE

Discussing Beijing’s behavior during a Friday teleconference Secretary of State Pompeo stated that “a risk through [China’s] stealing of intellectual property or trade rules that are unfair or activity in the South China Sea or their continued expansion in space and their efforts to develop their military, each of those actions has been met with a strong and vigorous response from the United States of America and we’ll continue to do so. There wasn’t a moment, but rather an administration that has recognized the difference in China’s behavior and the requirement for an American response to that changed behavior.”

Secretary Pompeo added that the United States reminds “countries we welcome commercial competition with China on a fair and reciprocal basis, but when China shows up with bribes to senior leaders in countries in exchange for infrastructure projects that will harm the people of that nation, then this idea of a treasury-run empire build is something that I think would be bad for each of those countries and certainly presents risk to American interests, and we intend to oppose them at every turn.”

IRANIAN PROXY WAR
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Yemen has fired a large number of sophisticated missiles into Saudi Arabia and the UAE in recent weeks. In response to a reporter’s inquiry the Secretary said that the “ number of ballistic missiles that have left Yemen headed for Saudi Arabia and the Emirates is dozens of times higher than the 36 that you identified.” He went on to explain that “those missiles are coming from and the hardware and software that supports them are coming from the Islamic Republic of Iran. We see it in the hardware, we can tell by the telemetry, and we know by the fact that we have had interdictions at sea which make very clear the source of this. So what you have is a proxy war being engaged in by Iran against Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. It’s something that we’ve made clear what we are going to do our level best to prevent, and we are supporting the Emirates and Saudi Arabia in their efforts to take down these missiles.”

Virtually every agency and United Nation organizations recognize that Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. The United States’ position is that once Iran stops exporting terrorism and conducting proxy wars Washington will welcome the country back into the league of nations. Until that time the US will impose further sanctions on Iran beginning November 4 if Washington’s 12 requirements are not met. These include the unmet requirement that the Iranian regime must declare a full account of the prior military dimensions of its nuclear program, and permanently and verifiably abandon such work in perpetuity.

NEW COLUMBIAN AND BRAZILIAN LEADERSHIP

 Secretary Pompeo, in referring to the Columbian government and new political leadership in Brazil said that he thinks that “the alignment of the new leaders in South America and Central America are determined to see these nations [Venezuela and Nicaragua] that are amongst their neighbors behaving in ways that are antithetical to the well-being of their own people give us the opportunity to change the course and direction of those two countries.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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US DISASTER RESPONSE IN INDONESIA

The United States, through USAID, is now providing a total of $3.7 million in assistance through its partners to deliver essential relief items, including shelter kits, blankets, hygiene kits, solar-powered lamps, and other lifesaving aid, according to the State Department Spokesperson.

USAID is also airlifting heavy-duty plastic sheeting to Indonesia to provide for emergency shelter needs of up to 110,500 people and has deployed a team of disaster experts to coordinate our humanitarian response efforts and is supporting a U.S. Forest Service emergency operations expert who’s on the ground providing technical support to the Government of Indonesia’s disaster response, she added. The Department of Defense has provided three C-130s and has already transported nearly 30 – 63 metric tons of disaster relief supplies into the affected areas.

This is not the first time the US has supported humanitarian disaster relief in Indonesia. During the 2004 tsunami in Sumatra, Indonesia which followed the 9.1 earthquake, the United States providing operating rooms aboard an aircraft carrier. It was the first and only nation to offer such assistance.

 

STATE DEPARTMENT NOMINEES HELD UP IN THE SENATE

There are still 65 State Department nominees sitting in the United States Senate, according to the State Department spokeswoman. She said: ”That’s over a quarter of all the senior-level confirmable positions that the United States Department of State is tasked with using to achieve its diplomatic outcomes. There is bipartisan agreement that a fully staffed State Department is critical to American national security. The State Department has been criticized for having gaps in leadership positions, but now we’ve done our part to fix that; now the Senate needs to do its part.”

Secretary Pompeo has repeatedly stated that these candidates are quality candidates and that they’re not sitting on the Senate floor because of objections with respect to their quality, their professionalism, or their excellence and ability to deliver American foreign policy.

Democratic members of the Senate not the Administration are at fault, the Secretary noted. He added that those for whom partisanship has now driven delay and obstruction of getting America’s diplomatic corps into every corner of the world, are to blame.

NORTH KOREA

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According to officials, there is some positive movement as Chairman Kim has invited inspectors to visit the Punggye-ri nuclear test site to confirm that it’s been irreversibly dismantled.  However, it should be noted that this particular site is an older one which already has been destroyed. While there is some progress, there is a long path ahead.

 

CHINA

China is providing the United States and other nations critical components for military weapons and equipment, according to a White House study released Friday.

The report recommends that the US invest in domestic manufacturing to eliminate supply chain vulnerabilities that could potentially cripple the American defense sector, and which pose a significant risk to national security. It also points out that the US already is experiencing delays in receiving Chinese solar cells for military use, flat-panel aircraft displays and rare earths for which China is a sole supplier at this time.

According to the report: “China is the single or sole supplier for a number of specialty chemicals used in munitions and missiles.” It also points out that: “China’s actions seriously threaten other capabilities, including machine tools; the production and processing of advanced materials like biomaterials, ceramics, and composites; and the production of printed circuit boards and semiconductors.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Earth from space, as seen by the Apollo 17 astronauts (NASA)

 

 

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SECRETARY OF STATE ANNOUNCED ANOTHER KOREA SUMMIT TO BE HELD

In an interview with CBS News Secretary of State Pompeo announced There will be another summit soon to discuss North Korean issues, including denuclearization. He confirmed that North Korea has agreed to allow in inspectors and that the world needs to hold North Korean President Kim to his statement. Secretary Pompeo said the US is working out the details and that a summit probably would not occur in October.

IRAN

When asked if there would be a meeting between President Trump and Iranian President Rouhani, Secretary Pompeo said  “…there’s not going to be a meeting. President Trump has said when the Iranians are prepared to talk about fundamentally changing their behavior, then he is of course prepared to talk to them.”

He added that statements by Rouhani saying President Trump has tendencies resembling a Nazi disposition and that the United States’ America first strategy is a symptom of weakness of intellect “indicate that they’re not in that place, and it is outrageous for him to say such a thing. For a Holocaust-denying country that is threatening Israel to compare the United States or its leader to Nazis is among the most outrageous things I have heard – and I will tell you, in diplomacy you hear a lot of them – the most outrageous things I have ever heard.”

Europe, China, and Russia have agreed recently to create a back channel to Tehran to circumvent US sanctions on the country. Secretary Pompeo pointed out that: “To continue to create mechanisms to fund the world’s largest state sponsor of terror is disastrous policy and I hope they will reconsider it. But most importantly, European businesses are voting with their checkbooks. They are leaving Iran in droves. These sanctions will be effective, they are effective, and come November 4th, they’ll be even more effective.”

Social unrest in Iran has moved beyond Tehran into small towns in the countryside. The chaos created by the Islamic, Republic, the government of Iran, is collapsing its economy. The rial, Iran’s currency is falling with 150,000 rial to 1 US dollar. US sanctions are pressuring Iran. The leadership’s poor treatment of the Iranian people, combined with the billions it spends on funding terrorist activity across the globe, is creating a tenuous situation which may foster change in the country. Secretary Pompeo recently said the “American people are going to stand with the Iranian people.” The ayatollah has in the past stated that Iran requires hostility with the United States. It makes diplomatic negotiations with this perspective difficult, according to Brian Hook, Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State and Special Representative for Iran. He added that Iran historically comes to the table only after heavy pressure from other countries. While it is too early to expect or predict regime change, US sanctions do appear to be impacting the country and its leadership.

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TERRORISM AND IRAN

The State Department released the first report produced by the Iran Action Group. It’s titled Outlaw Regime: A Chronicle of Iran’s Destructive Activities. The report examines Iran’s involvement in terrorism, Iran’s missile program, their illicit financial activities, Iran’s threats to maritime security, Iran’s threats to cyber security, human rights abuses in Iran, and the systematic destruction of Iran’s environment by this regime.  The report notes that the Iranian people lack clean water due to the environmental degradation incurred through official corruption, failed government management and bad environmental policies. Protesters typically are jailed or killed for their environmental views.

 

CHINA

Dr. Christopher Ashley Ford, Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, spoke recently to the FBI-Department of Commerce Conference on Counter-Intelligence and Export Control about China’s long-term political and military goals. He said: “China has for a great many years been diligently engaged in a long-term strategy to regain the global power and influence Chinese leaders believe were lost in the 19th century to Western imperialist powers. The stated objective of the Chinese Communist Party’s strategy is not merely to acquire power and influence for itself on the world stage, but in fact to displace U.S. power and influence as China reclaims the central geopolitical status and role of which the Party has convinced itself that China was robbed in the 19th Century by Western imperialism.”

Ford confirmed that China has a goal of achieving great power status and total dominance in East Asia by 2049. China’s President Xi Jinping publicly calls the coming two decades a “period of strategic opportunity.” Xi views world conditions as ripe for achieving high level technical advances across its economy and, in particular, in its development of an offensive military posture capable of conquering territory in East Asia. China acquires much of its state-of-the-art military technology through its theft of intellectual property from the west, along with tech transfer, joint research and development projects with foreign firms and collaboration with foreign universities.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

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2018 International Cyber Security Strategy

The White House released its 2018 National Cyber Strategy this week in support of a more open, secure, interoperable and reliable cyberspace. The US adheres to a multi-stakeholder model of governance, including its foreign partners, allies and members of civil society, and the private sector. This position stands in opposition to a state-centric model used in nations such as China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran and one which fails to enhance a vibrant digital economy.

“This includes engagement through the Freedom Online Coalition, a group of 30 governments committed to advancing Internet freedom via multilateral diplomacy and multi-stakeholder collaboration with civil society, the private sector, and other stakeholders. The Department’s efforts also focus on raising concerns bilaterally about actions that governments may take to restrict access to the Internet or suppress free speech online, and urging U.S.-based Internet companies to respect human rights and implement the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights as they design and carry out their commercial activities, according to the State Department announcement. For the past decade, the Department has provided over $165 million in foreign assistance to support Internet freedom programs.

 

Section 231 Sanctions

On September 2o an unnamed senior US State Department official addressed new developments in implementing the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanction Act (CAATA). Last year it was passed by Congress in response to attempts by the Russian defense and intelligence sectors to harm the United States. The senior official said: “The array of sanctions the United States has imposed against Russia and those who material support – materially support its malign activities are undertaken in direct response to Russia’s aggressive actions against our country, our allies, and our partners.”

This week the Secretary of State added 33 additional Russian entities, including Rosoboronexport, which is Russia’s main arms export entity, to the list of those prohibited from making major transactions in the US. In consultation with the Treasury Secretary, the US also imposed sanctions on the Equipment Development Department (EDD), a Chinese entity along with its Director Li Shangfu. The State Department official said: “We took these actions because China took delivery of 10 Sukhoi fighter aircraft, specifically Su-25s, in December of 2017 – of course, after the CAATSA statute came into force. And it also took delivery of a batch of S-400 – sometimes known as SA-21 – surface-to-air missile systems or related equipment in January of this year.”
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Iran Nuclear Deal

Secretary of State Pompeo this week declined to officially define former Secretary of State Kerry’s behind-the-scenes attempt to conduct diplomacy with Iran’s foreign minister without consent from the US Government as “illegal meetings,” saying that he will the “legal determination” to others. In what is viewed by Pompeo as an attempt to undermine the Trump Administration’s policy on Iran, Pompeo reported he saw with his own eyes that Kerry was meeting with Iranian and his “troika counterparts.”

In a strongly worded statement, Pompeo said: “…what Secretary Kerry has done is unseemly and unprecedented. This is a former secretary of state engaged with the world’s largest state sponsor of terror, and according to him – right? You don’t have to take my word for it. He – these are his answers. He was talking to them. He was telling them to wait out this administration.

You can’t find precedent for this in U.S. history, and the secretary ought not – Secretary Kerry ought not to engage in that kind of behavior. It’s inconsistent with what foreign policy of the United States is, as directed by this President, and it is beyond inappropriate for him to be engaged in this.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

 

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NEW DEFENSE DEPARTMENT AIRCRAFT AVAILABILITY REPORT

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) on September 10 released a new audit report confirming that the Air Force and Navy failed to meet aircraft availability goals between 2011 and 2015, with worsening numbers over time for almost 50% of the assessed models.

According to the GAO report: “The Air Force and Navy share a variety of sustainment challenges, including the age of their aircraft as well as maintenance and supply support issues. These challenges have led to half of the aircraft in our review experiencing decreasing availability [between 2011 and 2016] and to the aircraft in general not being able to meet aircraft availability goals.”

The report covered the F-16 Fighting Falcons, F/A-18A Hornets, F/A 18E/F Super Hornets, F-22 Raptors and the AV-8B Harrier II’s. It also examined numbers for the B-52 Stratoforce bomber, and a number of early warning, electronic surveillance, cargo, and transport planes.

 

Only one of the aircraft models audited achieved its availability goal. And, five failed to achieve their goal in all five years covered in the report. The Defense Department concurred with report which stated: “The Air Force and Navy are operating many of their fixed-wing aircraft well beyond their original designed service lives and therefore are confronted with sustainment challenges.” This follows eight years in which the Obama Administration pushed for decreases in the Defense budget.

 

RUSSIAN-CHINESE SPACE RELATIONS

It appears the Russian space corporation Roscosmos is prepared to supply rocket engines to China in yet another sign of the strengthening, strategic relationship between the two countries.

The move goes beyond a single engine sale. Space Daily reports that Hu Bin, a counselor in China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, while attending a UN Conference on Space and Law Policy said he believes it is a good idea that “can be put into the framework of cooperation on space exploration.”

Russia and China will continue to work together for the foreseeable future to thwart efforts by the west to limit their influence throughout the world as they have no other alternative partners or other viable policy options. However, while China and Russia consistently make public relations statements affirming their close and friendly relationship, under the surface there remains a strong distrust and resentment of each other that historically dates back the Unequal Treaties period in the mid-1800’s. That distrust was further cemented when Moscow reneged on a promise to give China the bomb in the late 1950’s, in a move seen in Beijing as a great betrayal among communist brothers.

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To the West this is a bygone era; to China this is current news. The underlying message United States policy makers need to recognize, is that out of necessity these two communist giants are collaborating to stop American influence, but as history shows it is not a bond of deep trust. The opportunity remains for Washington to bring China into the fold of responsible world powers if The US plays its China card correctly in the coming years.

CHINA

 

State Department spokesperson  Heather Nauert announced that the United States is deeply troubled by China’s worsening treatment and crackdown of the Muslim Uighur minority in western China, Kazakhs, and other Muslim groups. Earlier this year the State Department invited a group of Uighur journalists, among others, to Washington to press for human rights at the Religious Freedom Ministerial conference.

 

“There are credible reports out there that many, many thousands have been detained in detention centers since April 2017, and the numbers are fairly significant from what we can tell so far. Some of those disproportionate controls on ethnic minorities – expressions of their cultural and also their religious entities – have the potential also to incite radicalization and the recruitment of violence,” she said.

 

China has long feared “luan,” or chaos in its domestic politics. The leadership in Beijing has a history of intolerance of any political dissent or protests over human rights that could be organized and turned against the government or Communist Party. China’s leaders remain wary of minority groups, such as the Uighurs, who they say could increase pressure on Beijing to relax regulations on religious expression and practices and undermine stability within the country.

 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

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India

The United States has inked two new agreements with Indi this week. Secretary of State Pompeo met with Indian Minister of External Affairs Swaraj and Minister of Defense Sitharaman for the first-ever U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. Secretary of Defense Mattis and Secretary Pompeo also met with Prime Minister Modi to discuss how to advance the US-Indian relationship. Of particular significance, was the discussion surrounding how the US and India can ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region. The trip to India included meetings to examine ways the two countries can elevate security cooperation.

The US and India agreed to “enhance our military cooperation with India” as a major defense partner and the two countries signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) which will boost our defense collaboration and coordination and the leaders agreed, according to Secretary Pompeo, “on the scope and scale of military cooperation with India as our major defense partner – a unique status that the United States has granted to India.”

In addition to the Agreements talks included pressing global issues such as Afghanistan and North Korea, free trade and investment, and counterterrorism operations. This follows the US Secretary of Commerce recent announcement of  Strategic Trade Authorization Tier-1 status for India in August that further facilitate high-technology exports from the United States to India.

Saudi Arabia

The State Department announced: “The United States regards the Saudi-led Coalition’s ‎announcement that it will review their rules of engagement, hold those at fault accountable, and compensate victims following the Joint Incident Assessment Team’s finding that last month’s Sa’ada air strikes lacked justification as an important first step toward full transparency and accountability.” The United States has called on all sides to abide by the Law of Armed Conflict, to mitigate harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure, and thoroughly investigate and ensure accountability for any violations surrounding attacks on the Yemeni people.

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Secretary of State Pompeo and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, Jr. were in Islamabad, Pakistan on September 5 to conduct talks with new Prime Minister Imran Khan, Foreign Minister Qureshi, and Chief of Army Staff Bajwa regarding the U.S.-Pakistan bilateral relations and potential areas for cooperation.  They discussed strengthening civilian institutions and the expansion of two-way trade and commercial ties, in addition to deeper counterterrorism efforts. According to the State Department: “In all of his meetings, Secretary Pompeo emphasized the important role Pakistan could play in bringing about a negotiated peace in Afghanistan and conveyed the need for Pakistan to take sustained and decisive measures against terrorists and militants threatening regional peace and stability.”

Asian Energy

An estimated $82 billion annually will be needed in power infrastructure until 2030 to ensure current growth levels, tackle poverty, and address climate change in developing areas in Asia, according to Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The largest developing nation in Asia is China. It already is experiencing rising labor costs, an aging population without adequate social programs, environmental problems and corruption. President Xi Jinping will be challenged to find ways to maintain growth and keep social unrest quiet.

The Asian Development Bank estimates that between 2016 and 2030, Asia will need $26 trillion of infrastructure investment to reduce poverty and expand growth. According to Matthew Goodman, the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS, Japanese banks lead the world in infrastructure financing, but recent Chinese efforts—the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank—are expanding trade connections and raising China’s profile in developing countries. Already cracks are becoming visible in the Initiative as some African countries are beginning to resent foreign workers from China receiving jobs and repatriating funds.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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North KOrea

Diplomacy simply put is a war of words fought across the negotiating table, on Twitter, and in the halls of governments around the world rather than on a physical battlefield. These verbal skirmishes explain the US-North Korean relationship, where a single translated phrase could mean the difference between bloody conflict and potential peace on the peninsula. Washington’s discussions this summer with Pyongyang resemble an extended shuttlecock volley, or the long game in tennis, played from the baseline with each side taking shots repeatedly at their opponent to test commitment and the other side’s ability to enforce its policy.

President Trump warned Americans earlier this year we were playing a long game. He announced he was going to attempt progress toward resolving the conflict on the Korean peninsula. And we did witness some advances by this summer. Fifty-five sets of Vietnam war remains were returned to the US and the North began disassembling its Sohae Satellite Launching Station.

President Kim, however, did not stop his country’s production of fissile material nor did he cease upgrading the plutonium producing reactor at Yongbyon. The North also continued constructing facilities at Sanumdong for the production of ballistic missiles.

The North’s latest verbal volley this week, in which the regime sent a belligerent letter to Washington, explains why President Trump needed to cancel abruptly upcoming talks scheduled between Secretary of State Pompeo and General Kim Yong Chol. In the last few months of this “war by other means” Washington witnessed Pyongyang call talks with the United States “regrettable” and label the US as having a “gangster-like mindset.”

In response to the lack of forward progress, the President lobbed it back into the North’s court. In a statement issued this week the White House updated the status of President Trump’s efforts to denuclearize North Korea.

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“Nonetheless, the President believes that his relationship with Kim Jong Un is a very good and warm one, and there is no reason at this time to be spending large amounts of money on joint U.S.-South Korea war games. Besides, the President can instantly start the joint exercises again with South Korea, and Japan, if he so chooses. If he does, they will be far bigger than ever before. As for the U.S.–China trade disputes, and other differences, they will be resolved in time by President Trump and China’s great President Xi Jinping. Their relationship and bond remain very strong.”

In diplomatic parlance the US President is providing the North Korean President room to save face domestically and, perhaps, to create a new opening to move forward toward achieving Washington’s ultimate goal of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. At the same time President Trump is standing firm by putting the North on notice that Washington is capable of changing the game and restarting military exercises at any point should the North behave badly.

President Kim is known for violating commitments he makes in face-to-face meetings. The reality today is that he is not giving up the North’s nuclear weapons. It appears he believes his weapons of mass destruction are what brought the US to the game and Pyongyang a front seat on the world stage. As long as the shuttlecock is in play the battlefield will likely remain a war of words. Pyongyang received this week’s message. Washington is patient but the United States is no paper tiger.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

North Korea Update:

Steve Biegun has been named as the special representative for North Korea. Steve will direct U.S. policy towards North Korea and lead U.S. efforts achieve the final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea, as agreed to by Chairman Kim Jong-un. Biegun and Secretary of State Pompeo was scheduled to traveling to North Korea next week, but President Trump has postponed that until Pyongyang demonstrates greater adherence to eliminating its nuclear program.

Secretary of State Pompeo’s Recent testimony the Senate Foreign Relations Committee:

“For the last few weeks I’ve been engaged in three areas of particular interest to this committee: North Korea, NATO, and Russia.

On the subject of Russia, I want to bring something to your attention right off the bat today. Today, the Trump administration is releasing what we’re calling the Crimea Declaration. I won’t read the whole thing. I will submit it for the record. It’s been publicly released as well. But one part reads as follows: “The United States calls on Russia to respect the principles to which it has long claimed to adhere and to end its occupation of Crimea.” End of quote.

I want to assure this committee that the United States does not and will not recognize the Kremlin’s purported annexation of Crimea. We stand together with allies, partners, and the international community in our commitment to Ukraine and its territorial integrity. There will be no relief of Crimea-related sanctions until Russia returns control of the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine. This Crimea Declaration formalizes United States policy of nonrecognition.

There’s another indicator of diplomatic progress I want to mention. This morning, Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was imprisoned in Turkey for nearly two years, has been let out of jail at Buca. He’s still under house arrest, so our work is not done, but it’s welcome progress – one that many of you have been engaged in and something the State Department has been working on diligently as well. We will continue to work for the speedy return of all Americans unjustly held captive abroad. President Trump will never forget about our own.

Our diplomacy on these issues is advancing the goals of President Trump’s National Security Strategy, which laid down guiding principles for American foreign policy in December. In late April, I started executing on the strategy as Secretary of State. And today, on July 1st – excuse me, today here we are, and I want to present you some progress.

The National Security Strategy established “Protecting the American People, the Homeland, and the American Way of Life” as the pillars of our national security. On July 17th, President Trump stated his firm conviction that “diplomacy and engagement are preferable to conflict and hostility.” These principles have guided our actions on North Korea. President Trump’s diplomacy de-escalated a situation in which the prospect for conflict was rising daily. Americans are safer because of his actions.

As far as the Trump administration’s goals on North Korea are concerned, nothing has changed. Our objective remains the final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea, as agreed to by Chairman Kim Jong-un.

As a follow-up to the President’s successful summit with Chairman Kim, on July 5th I traveled to North Korea to make progress on the commitments that were made in Singapore. We are engaged in patient diplomacy, but we will not let this drag out to no end. I emphasized this position in the productive discussions I had with Vice Chairman Kim Yong-chol.

President Trump remains upbeat about the prospects for North Korean denuclearization. Progress is happening. We need Chairman Kim Jong-un to follow through on his commitments that he made in Singapore. Until North Korea eliminates its weapons of mass destruction, our sanctions, and those at the United Stations will remain – United Nations – will remain in effect. Multiple UN Security Council resolutions require North Korea to eliminate all of its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs. Those resolutions were passed unanimously, and they remain binding. We absolutely need every single nation to maintain the enforcement of those sanctions to which every nation is committed. The path ahead is not easy, but our hopes for a safer world and a brighter future for North Korea endure.
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The National Security Strategy also calls for “Peace through Strength.” President Trump’s engagement on NATO has resulted in greater burden sharing that will strengthen the entire alliance against myriad conventional and unconventional threats. Allies have spent more than $40 billion in increased defense spending since 2016, and there will be hundreds of millions of – billions of dollars more in the years ahead.

Last year’s $14.4 billion in new spending was a 5.1 percent increase. It was the largest in a generation. Eight allies will meet the 2 percent this year; 18 are on track to do so by ‘24. The Trump administration is demanding that every country make its own commitment.

NATO will remain an indispensable pillar of American national security. We know weakness provokes our enemies, but strength and cohesion protect us. The more every NATO member contributes, the better the alliance can fulfill its mission of deterring threats to each of our nations. This is the increased commitment that the President wants.

From the outset of this administration, the National Defense Strategy and the Russia Integrated Strategy, our approach has been the same: to steadily raise the costs of aggression until Vladimir Putin chooses a less confrontational foreign policy, while keeping the door open for dialogue in our national interest. Between our two nations, the United States and Russia possess over 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. President Trump believes that two great nuclear powers should not have a contentious relationship. This is not just in our interest but in the interest of the whole world. He strongly believes that now is the time for direct communication in our relationship in order to make clear to President Putin that there is the possibility, however remote it might be, to reverse the negative course of our relationship. Otherwise, the administration will continue imposing tough actions against Russia in response to its malign activities.

We can’t make progress on issues of mutual concern unless we are talking about them. I’ve heard many of you on this panel say that for years and years. I’m referring to key issues like stopping terrorism, obtaining peace in Ukraine, stopping the civil war in Syria and delivering humanitarian assistance, ensuring security for Israel, and shutting down all of Iran’s malign activity.

And on the subject of Iran, President Trump has said that “Iran is not the same country it was five months ago.” That’s because our campaign of financial pressure, our withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and our full-throated support for the Iranian people, which I articulated in a speech this past Sunday, are having an impact.

In Helsinki, we sought to explore whether Russia was interested in improving our relationship but made clear that the ball is in Russia’s court. We defended America’s fundamental strategic interests in Syria and Ukraine, and I personally made clear to the Russians there will be severe consequences for interference in our democratic processes.

I would also add that President Trump is well aware of the challenges that Russia poses to the United States and our partners and allies. He’s taken a staggering number of actions to protect our interests. As just a few pieces of proof, I’d like to cite the following: 213 sanctions on Russian entities and individuals in the Trump administration; 60 Russian spies expelled from the United States of America and the closure of Russia’s consulate in Seattle in response to Russia’s chemical weapons use in the United Kingdom; the closure of Russia’s consulate in San Francisco, cutting U.S. diplomatic staffing by Russia by almost 70 percent; 150 military exercises have been led or participated in Europe this year alone; more than 11 billion have been put forward for the European Defense[1] Initiative; we made defensive weapons available to Ukraine and to Georgia; and just last week the Department of Defense – this is after Helsinki – added an additional $200 million in security cooperation funds to Ukraine. None of this happened for the eight years that preceded President Trump…

Finally, I want you to know President Trump has stated that he accepts our intelligence community’s conclusion that Russia meddled in the 2016 election. He has a complete and proper understanding of what happened. I know; I briefed him on it for over a year. This is perfectly clear to me personally. I am also certain he deeply respects the difficult and dangerous work that our patriots in the intelligence community do every single day, and I know that he feels the same way about the amazing people that work at the United States Department of State.