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Foreign Policy Update

OCEANS 2018

During the “Our Ocean Conference 2018” in Bali, Indonesia, the United States announced 15 commitments to strengthen sustainable management of marine resources; prevent plastic and other debris from entering the ocean; support research and observation of ocean ecosystems; and foster partnerships promoting maritime security and a sustainable blue economy.

The State Department noted that American efforts include, among other projects: two new five-year programs in Madagascar to improve marine and coastal resources; a new five-year regional activity in Central American Regional Coastal Biodiversity Project; a three-year collaboration between the U.S. AID and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reduce threats to biodiversity in the Caribbean; and also $5 million from NOAA for ocean observing technology to support the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) 2020 Project, an international effort to improve our understanding of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the ocean’s role in weather and climate.

IRANIAN HIT SQUADS

In a media interview this week Secretary of State Pompeo discussed the threat from Iranian hit squads plotting to commit assassinations in Denmark, France and Albania. Iran, long recognized as the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, sent Iranian intelligence operatives into Europe for the third effort in recent times.

Pompeo said that sanctions which the previous administration had relieved against Iran are “snapping back, coming back into effect, and it’s having a real impact on the Iranian leadership. This is important…” in our efforts to get the Iranians to change their behavior. IT will take time and patience.

 

The Secretary added that: “We are hopeful that [Foreign Minister] Zarif’s boss, the ayatollah, the man who actually makes all the decisions – it’s not Mr. Zarif, it’s the ayatollah – that the ayatollah will see the error of his ways and will come to understand that it’s in Iran’s best interest to change the nature of the activities that Iran is conducting all around the world and become a normal nation.” President Trump has stated that once Iran is in line with other normal nation-states we will welcome the country back into the family of nations.

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IRAN SANCTIONS

President Trump withdrew the United States from the fatally flawed nuclear deal with Iran earlier this year. The new campaign goal, using economic sanctions going into effect on November 5, aims to fundamentally alter Iran’s behavior through deprivation of the revenue it uses to export terrorism. This is Round 19 of economic sanctions and adds over 700 names to the list of blocked entities.

US Secretary of State Pompeo announced that “These sanctions hit at the core areas of Iran’s economy.” He added that to maximize the impact on Iran, Washington is working with other countries by cutting Iranian exports of oil as much as possible. He pointed out that the Administration may issue temporary allotments to eight jurisdictions vs. the 20 allotted during the Obama Administration, multiple times between 2012 and 2015.

Secretary Pompeo said the eight jurisdictions receiving the temporary allotments have aided the US efforts on other significant fronts. At this time Iran’s crude oil exports already are reduced by one million barrels. With the imposition of new sanctions on November 5, Secretary Pompeo explained, “100% of the revenue that Iran receives from the sale of crude oil will be held in foreign accounts and can be used by Iran only for humanitarian trade or bilateral trade in non-sanctioned goods and services.”

“This massive reduction since May of last year is three to five times more than what many analysts were projecting when President Trump announced our withdrawal from the deal back in May. We exceeded our expectations for one simple reason: Maximum pressure means maximum pressure,” according to the Secretary of State. The United States is making exceptions for humanitarian assistance to the people of Iran, including food,agriculture commodities, medicine, and medical devices.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Foreign Policy Update

SECRETARY POMPEO IS TRAVELLING TO ASIA FOR TALKS WITH LEADERS October 6-8

Secretary of State Pompeo will travel to Tokyo, Japan to meet with Prime Minister Abe;  Pyongyang, DPRK to meet with President Moon; Seoul, Republic of Korea with President Moon and Foreign Minister Kang; and, finally in Beijing to meet with his Chinese counterparts to discuss bilateral, regional, and global issues. The purpose of the trip is continue to focus on the final, fully verifiable, denuclearization of the DPRK, and longstanding commitment to American alliances and partnerships in the region.

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR COUNTERTERRORISM

This week President Trump announced a new National Strategy for Counterterrorism that the State Department says: “…brings to bear all facets of American power to protect our people and interests. The President’s strategy emphasizes the importance of diplomacy and the role of international partnerships in combating the terrorist threats we face.”

The strategy, Secretary Pompeo says, recognizes the need for all nations to equitably share the burden of confronting terrorism, to expand the counterterrorism capabilities of Washington’s partners, and to work collaboratively to defeat the terrorists of today and tomorrow.

Terrorist groups are evolving into more complex, fluid, and fast-moving groups that adapt quickly to efforts to thwart their expansion and violence. Networks such as al-Qa`ida, ISIS, and Iranian-supported terrorists continue to target the United States, America’s allies, and partners.

SECRETARY POMPEO SAYS LANDMARK DEVELOPMENT FINANCE LEGISLATION IMPROVES U.S. COMPETITIVENESS OVERSEAS

The recent Congressional Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act of 2018 passed with strong bipartisan support. Known as The BUILD Act, it implements President Trump’s vision for our development finance institutions. It also strengthens the government’s development finance capacity, offering a better alternative to state-directed investments and advancing our foreign policy goals. Secretary Pompeo pointed out: “We are enabling them to mobilize private sector investment to accelerate development and move societies forward. The Act provides opportunities for American companies to compete overseas and create jobs here at home, a critical component of the President’s national economic strategy.”

SECRETARY OF STATE’S PRESS CONFERENCE ON IRAQ, THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE AND PUTTING AMERICA’S DIPLOMATIC CORPS BACK IN THE FIELD 
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On October 3, prior to his Asian trip Secretary Pompeo held a press conference in which he discussed three issues:  Iraq, the International Court of Justice and putting America’s diplomatic corps back in the field. 

Regarding the situation in Iraq, the Secretary said Iran is the origin of the current threat to Americans in that country. “It is to blame for the attacks against our mission in Basra and our embassy in Baghdad. Our intelligence in this regard is solid. We can see the hand of the ayatollah and his henchmen supporting these attacks on the United States.,” he said.

Last week the Secretary ordered the temporary relocation of U.S. Government personnel from the American consulate general in Basra. He also warned the leadership in Tehran that the United States will hold Iran “directly responsible for any harm to Americans or our diplomatic facilities, whether perpetrated by Iranian forces or by associated proxies or elements of those militias.”

These acts appear to be attempts by Iran to counter American successes in the region and are expected to increase after full sanctions are in place beginning on the 4th of November.

The Secretary also announced that Washington is terminating the 1955 Treaty of Amity with Iran. Last July, he said, “Iran brought a meritless case in the International Court of Justice alleging violations of the Treaty of Amity. Iran seeks to challenge the United States decision to cease participation in the Iran nuclear deal and to re-impose the sanctions that were lifted as a part of that deal. Iran is attempting to interfere with the sovereign rights of the United States to take lawful actions necessary to protect our national security. And Iran is abusing the ICJ for political and propaganda purposes and their case, as you can see from the decision, lacked merit.”

The Secretary also discussed “putting the diplomatic team from the United States Department of State back on the field.”  Currently, there are 65 nominees waiting for confirmation in the United States Senate. This number equates to over 25% of all senior-level confirmable positions.

Secretary Pompeo stated that he wants “…every single American to know that what Senator Menendez and members of the Senate are doing to hold back American diplomacy rests squarely on their shoulders.” While there is bipartisan agreement that a fully staffed State Department is critical to American national security, Senator Menendez and others, he pointed out, have held up highly-qualified appointees some for as long as 207 days.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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White House Foreign Policy Reversal Unlikely

The White House is making much of its decision to return one hundred tanks to Eastern Europe in response to Russian aggressiveness on land, sea and in the air on that continent.  It is an emphatic statement on its extraordinarily foolish decision, earlier in 2014, to withdraw all U.S. tanks from Europe. It also glosses over the Administration’s failure to take the nonlethal step that could have truly halted Putin’s return to the Cold War: opening up American federal lands to energy exploitation, and ending the EPA’s war on coal. These acts, which would have also helped western consumers, would have essentially stopped the flow of funds Putin needs to continue expanding his massive armed forces.

This timid and minor reversal is deeply similar to the return of at least some American forces, mostly trainers, special forces, and Air Force missions, to Iraq to combat ISIS. Just as the withdrawal of American tanks was a factor in Moscow’s decision that it could safely conquer Crimea without fear of a western response, so too the premature withdrawal of American forces from Iraq directly precipitated the rise of ISIS.

Will the President, chastened by his complete and overwhelming foreign policy and military strategy failures across the globe, finally begin to reverse course? Currently, it appears that while some minor adjustments may be made, the likelihood of a thorough White House rethinking of its international and military strategies appears unlikely.

American forces are still scheduled to depart from Afghanistan, although more will be left behind than previously planned. Nevertheless, expect the Taliban, the architects of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, to make a significant comeback there as a result.

There is little that can be done to undo the absurd decision to depose Gaddafi, the Libyan dictator who had genuinely renounced both terrorism and his own nuclear program. His nonthreatening rule has been replaced by a state in danger of becoming an al Qaeda subsidiary.

The rapidly growing military influence of Russia in Europe, China in Asia, and Iran in the Middle East has been greatly facilitated by the White House’s reduction of funds for U.S. defense, its increasing estrangement from allies, and its reluctance to employ substantive diplomatic responses to threats.

Consider these examples:

  • Come January, as a result of the shrinking Navy, there will be no U.S. aircraft carrier on patrol in East Asia for the first time since World War 2 ended.
  • There has been no U.S. response to the growing influence of Russia, China, and Iran in Latin America.
  • The U.S. defense budget is still strained. A key result of that is the loss of key personnel.
  • The President still opposes implantation of an adequate anti-missile system.
  • The Administration has given Iran yet another extension in the nuclear arms talks, allowing that nation time to develop its atomic arsenal.
  • No firm response has yet been made to Russian and Chinese cyber-attacks on U.S. computer systems.
  • No significant protective measures of American electrical and computer infrastructure have been taken.

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The White continues to take positions which harm our allies, as it did to the United Kingdom in the New START talks, Poland in the ABM decision, and Israel in issues related to Palestinian negotiations.

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What Needs to be Said about Iran

In the arcane world of diplomacy, the most vital and obvious statements are often left unsaid. All too frequently, the media reflects, without careful analysis, that same opaque semantic habit.

This has been particularly true in the ongoing nuclear weapons discussions with Iran.  What needs to be said, understood, and acted upon is this: Iran is a nation ruled by fanatical men who do evil things to their own population, especially females, and seek the ability to do equally evil acts upon the rest of the world. The route they have chosen to accomplish this goal is through the acquisition of nuclear weapons, which they can mount on their already potent rockets.

Tehran has not negotiated in good faith.  Therefore, the softening of sanctions and the extending of deadlines only serves to assist that nation in the pursuit of its unacceptable objectives.

As noted by Haleh Esfandiari and Robert S. Litwak, writing for the Wilson Center,

“Already, the extension of nuclear talks announced Monday is being portrayed in Iran as a victory for its negotiating team. In a televised interview Monday night, President Hasan Rouhani made clear that Iran would not stop its centrifuges or give up its technology. What’s been agreed to is, indeed, a bonus for Tehran as its government continues to access about $700 million a month from its frozen assets.”

Testifying before the Senate foreign Relations Committee on December 3, David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security  stated that  “Iran is more likely today to choose a safe route [rather than a purely clandestine one] to preserving and further developing a capability to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon. In the case of gas centrifuges, it is likely to seek to maintain and increase its capabilities at declared centrifuge sites, the associated centrifuge manufacturing complex, and centrifuge R&D facilities. It would view this path as the preferred one, because it can simply and legitimately claim that all its activities are civil in nature, even if it is actually hiding the goal of eventually seeking nuclear weapons.”

The Obama Administration had knowledge of the fact that Russia was aiding Iran’s nuclear aims, yet neither disclosed that fact to Congress nor responded to it by amending its discredited “reset” policy with Russia. Bret Stephens recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal that “Because the Administration lacks the political courage of its real convictions or the martial courage of its ones—we are wedded to this sham process of negotiation.”

In its quixotic (or worse) attempt to appease Iran, the White House has also not been honest with the American public about Tehran’s growing military/terrorist presence in Latin America, particularly in Venezuela and Bolivia.

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“Iran has actively been developing Latin America as a base from which to launch military and terrorist assaults on the United States. There is bipartisan concern in Congress that the White House has not responded to the threat, although the problem is recognized. Before departing to a visit to Columbia, Defense Secretary Panetta noted that “We always have a concern about, in particular, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and [their] efforts to expand their influence not only throughout the Middle East but also into this region…that relates to expanding terrorism.”

Reports from around the world have noted Tehran’s growing military presence in the Western Hemisphere. Germany’s Die Welt newspaper described the Islamic Republic’s construction of intermediate range missile launch pads on Venezuela’s Paraguana Peninsula.

The threat is not confined to low-level tactics. There is mounting concern that both nuclear and ballistic missile threats are emerging from Venezuelan-Iranian cooperation. The Tehran/Caracas axis, encouraged by Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, is particularly troubling. According to The Heritage Foundation’s Peter Brooks, the two nations have a Memorandum of Understanding “pledging full military support and cooperation…”

Robert F. Noriega, the former ambassador to the Organization of American States and former Assistant secretary of State, notes that “Iranian officials have made no secret of the regime’s intention to carry its asymmetrical struggle to the streets of the United States and Europe.” Noriega is concerned that the White House is not adequately concerned about these developments, and in fact has “misinformed” Congress as to their seriousness.

Congress has been attempting to get the White House to focus on the problem for some time. Many members, both democrat and Republican, were distressed by the Administration’s cutting $13 million annually from its Southern Command military budget (which has responsibility for the region) and its refusal to beef up intelligence assets in the vicinity. Last July, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) along with several colleagues submitted a letter to the State Department expressing concern on Iran’s hostile acts in South America.

According to Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC) Iran has used its terrorist Hezbollah proxy force in the tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, to gain influence and power; built numerous “cultural centers” and overstaffed embassies to assist its covert goals; and supported the activities of the terrorist group Hamas in South America.”

As the Obama Administration grants yet another move softening its position on Iran’s growing nuclear capabilities, it considers initiating sanctions on Israel due to that nation’s construction of new housing in Jerusalem. The move highlights the White House’s bizarre foreign policy choices.

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Obama’s Undisclosed Foreign Policy

It is the guiding policy in the strange, new world of international relations in the Obama years: treating enemies with respect and empathy, and giving allies the brush-off, or worse.

At her recent Georgetown speech,   former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton advocated: “This is what we call smart power…Using every possible tool and partner to advance peace and security. Leaving no one on the sidelines. Showing respect even for one’s enemies. Trying to understand, in so far as psychologically possible, empathize with their perspective and point of view. Helping to define the problems, determine the solutions. That is what we believe in the 21st century will change — change the prospects for peace.”

This came at the same time that Congress furiously demanded an explanation of why the White House was floating the idea of imposing sanctions on America’s only firm ally in the region, Israel. Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) in a document obtained by the Washington Free Beacon  noted that fifty members of the House of Representatives demanded that the Administration explain why it is seriously considering imposing sanctions against Israel. “Israel is one of our strongest allies, and the mere notion that the administration would unilaterally impose sanctions against Israel is not only unwise, but is extremely worrisome…such reports send a clear message to our friends and enemies alike that such alliances with the United States government can no longer be unquestionably trusted.”

President Obama has not commented on the matter.

During the tenure of the current White House, the Obama/Clinton concept of “respect and empathy” for enemy nations, including those that blatantly and substantially violate human rights, has predominated in every sphere of foreign affairs. Consider these salient examples:

The Obama/Clinton “reset” with Russia came as Mr. Putin squashes democracy in his own realm, invades a neighboring nation, ramps up his armed forces, returns to cold war bases around the world, and deploys his military in a manner that clearly threatens Europe.

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Even as Iran moves expeditiously to develop its nuclear weaponry, the White House has moved to soften sanctions and extend deadlines, despite the absence of any real progress.

During this same time period, the Administration has by word and deed weakened American commitments and diplomatic relations with key allies.

An initial attempt to improve relations with opposing nations by a new Administration can be written off as an example of naiveté or a reliance upon an excessive degree of hope.  But when those attempts clearly and dramatically fail, as they have in the case of Russia, China, Iran, and Islamic extremists, then there can be no excuse not to return to a more sensible policy.

But the White House has failed to do so, and has given no viable answer why it has not.  It has not been pressed to do by a largely supportive media. But the failure has become so obvious, serious, and dangerous, that the ongoing safety of the nation requires an immediate explanation and description of what Mr. Obama’s foreign policy goals are, what he believes America’s role in the world is, and how he intends to keep the U.S. safe from the burgeoning military might of Russia, China, and Iran, three nations that have become increasing allied and increasingly powerful.  The same requirement must be responded to by Ms. Clinton, not only for her previous failures as Secretary of State, but her views for the nation she seeks to lead in the future.

There is a domestic content to this problem, as well. The Executive Branch is part of a government of a free nation.  The White House is answerable to the voters.  There has never been a truly open, thorough or cogent explanation of what Mr. Obama’s world vision is.  If, indeed, the President seeks to “fundamentally transform” America’s role into one in which enemies are now considered friends and former allies have been discarded, which appears to be the case, then he is compelled to reveal his radical new perspective to the American people, a duty he has for far too long ignored.

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Pearl Harbor, Again

Today is December 6, 2014, and the United States is in more danger than it has ever been in since December 6, 1941, the day before the attack on Pearl Harbor.

North Korea is on the verge of expanding again its nuclear program. Terrorist control more territory than ever throughout the Moslem world. Several Latin American nations are openly hostile to the U.S. and have invited foreign military advisors and suppliers in.  Russia has returned to the Cold War, with a military more advanced and agile than ever. China seems openly intent on using its new superpower-level military prowess to push the United States out of the Pacific.  Now, it’s been disclosed that the nuclear talks with Iran have been extended past the November deadline all the way to June, giving that nation’s leadership every opportunity to complete its atomic weapons program.

Unlike the aftermath of the attack on Pearl Harbor, the U.S. defense industrial base does not have the capacity to quickly build up the armed forces in the event of a major armed conflict.
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As these dark clouds of danger gather into a terrible storm, our own military continues to deteriorate.

There has rarely been a more thorough, extensive and deeply dangerously total failure of American foreign policy than the U.S. has endured under the Obama Administration.  What is equally as troubling is that the President, in spite of these disastrous conditions, is utterly unwilling to change course.

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Will American voters act to reject foreign policy failures?

Americans go to the polls tomorrow in the midst of a more urgent period of crisis than any since the start of the Second World War, and perhaps surpassing even that momentous epoch.

Extraordinary challenges facing our national security will be decided.

The evidence of both the depth of the threats facing the nation is abundant, as is the reality that the dogmas of the past several years have failed to provide any remedies. An objective, clear-eyed view reveals a devastating picture of an America that has seen its fortunes decline precipitously, in large part due to tragically faulty strategies.

At no time since the attack on Pearl Harbor has the United States been in such a weakened position militarily. This time, however, our vulnerability is not due to a sneak attack; it is the result of policies that were never based on any realistic assessments. The Obama-Clinton “reset” with Russia, highlighted by an extraordinary reduction in American arms at the same time that Moscow dramatically upgraded its conventional and nuclear forces, was clearly doomed to fail. But the White House and its supporters were so eager to redistribute military funding to social welfare programs, including an unprecedented leap in food stamps, that they ignored—and continue to ignore– this imminent threat. The same willful blindness applies to our stance towards China’s massive armed forces buildup and to the increasing threat of Islamic terrorism, a threat Mr. Obama and his allies seem reluctant to even call by its proper name.

Since 2009, the United States has endangered staunch friends such as the United Kingdom, Poland, the Philippines, and especially Israel through an inexplicable attitude from the White House that sought to please our opponents more than America’s own interests and that of its allies. Today, a powerful and increasingly dangerous axis with a vast and contiguous portion of the Earth’s geography and population, including Russia, China, Iran and North Korea threatens planetary peace to an unacceptable degree.
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The American electorate tomorrow must make a decision similar to that of the United Kingdom’s in 1940, when Neville Chamberlain, who sought to appease Nazi Germany, was replaced by the clear-eyed Winston Churchill.

But foreign-born threats are not all from enemy weapons. The aimlessness and secretiveness with which the looming threat of Ebola has been met by the White House matches its disarray in other national security concerns.

Similarly, the refusal to not only appropriately secure America’s southern border, but to engage in statements which actually encourage illegal entry provides an effective vector for the introduction of contagious diseases and Islamic terrorists, masquerading as economic immigrants, to the U.S.

Tomorrow, Americans have a choice.  Their decision may determine whether they also have a secure future.

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Obama’s Strange War

The day after the President Obama announced enhanced airstrikes against ISIS, 13 years into America’s long march against Islamic extremism, Secretary of State John Kerry declared we were not at war with ISIS but “What we are doing is engaging in a very significant counter-terrorism operation, and it’s going to go on for some period of time.”

This was followed by the British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond telling reporters at a news conference in Berlin: Let me be clear; Britain will not be taking part in any air strikes in Syria.”  He said London won’t be “revisiting” the issue after Parliament decided last year against participating in air strikes.  Number 10 Downing Street then had to walk that back by saying that P.M. David Cameron had not yet decided on air strikes.

Further complications occurred after that with Germany stating that they were not yet in the coalition, followed by Turkey and then Saudi Arabia announcing that their contribution would be restricted to the training of the Syrian Free Army on Saudi territory.

Friday it got worse with the CIA in a surprise release stating that ISIS had grown by as much as 300% since June and now numbered between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters in the terror army.  This would make ISIS the 76th largest army out of 106 forces in the world.  It should be remembered that when they took Fallujah in the beginning of 2014 they were estimated to be around 4000 strong.

In matters both foreign and domestic, Obama’s presidency has been one of unnecessarily diminished expectations.  Thus when he gives us a little, many tend to bequeath it a potency that is not there.  He began his fifteen minutes into war making with a pronouncement that ISIL or ISIS is not Islamic nor is it a state.  Who then are the volunteers who have swelled its ranks at 500 a week…Presbyterians?  The insistence of Obama to protect anything and everything Islamic is the source of this obsession.  The reflexive impulse to see Islam in western terms is the source of those non Muslims who always want to begin the conversation with the assertion that “Islam is a religion of Peace”.  They are the 21st century avatars of those with a “little knowledge” and thus are as dangerous as ISIS.

Then came his predictable pledge of no ground troops from the US, causing Speaker Boehner to decry “An F-16 is not a strategy” and that an air war alone will not get the job done.  There is no need for foreign spies in the U.S. when the President gives away military strategy in televised national speeches.

Obama’s claim that ISIS or the Islamic State is highly questionable.  ISIS now occupies 18 cities in Iraq and 22 cities in Syria.  31 of that total are under their full control.  The opposition to ISIS, which includes both the disparate elements of the Syrian Free Army and the Syrian Army of Bashir al-assad  is all in the eastern corridor.  Part of the east, the north central and the west are basically controlled by ISIS.
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In Iraq, Anbar and parts of Diyala, Salahuddin and Nineveh Provinces extending south to Bagdad and west to Kurdistan are controlled by ISIS.  This territory is roughly the size of Belgium or Jordan and estimated by some to be as large as 35,000 square miles.  The 8 Sunni “militias’ in the Sunni triangle at the present time are all either supporting ISIS or in a truce with them although there have been incidents of fighting between ISIS and the Jaysh Rijal al- Tariqa al- Naqshbandia (JRTN) the largest Sunni nationalist groups that also has Caliphate  type dreams.  ISIS also controls one border crossing in Syria and perhaps as many as three in Iraq.

Over two million people in both Syria and Iraq have been displaced and are living in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey or Iraqi Kurdistan.

Obama has now based the foreign policy portion of what remains of his Presidency on a proposal that seems both unstable and unserious.  It is beginning to feel in its infancy like more spin than substance and some openly wonder if this is serious or just more political necessity.

He has tried to convince us that he waited for a new regime in Bagdad and now that he has it no one can really say if it is the real deal or not.  In Iraq, it is a new Sunni Awakening that is needed along with an Iraqi army that can and will fight. In Syria it is a collection of insurgents, some with al-Qaeda ties, who Mr. Obama just weeks ago demeaned as “Doctors, Farmers and Pharmacists” whom he would be stupid to arm.  Then his core principle was “don’t do stupid stuff””.  Now it is “no safe haven” for those who try to kill us.  The truth is that nobody knows what this is or where this is going and that in the long run is the biggest danger of it all.

No American should be sent into harms way if the ultimate objective is not complete and total victory.  Anything less is immoral and illogical.  A three year campaign with the finale left to a new President is yet another example of his propensity to fit square pegs into round holes.  It is a graduate studies exercise devoid of the essence of or the unpredictability of the reality of war.  Why three years?  Three years will allow this cancer to metastasize and grow until ISIS is not just part of Islam but is Islam itself.

Article researched and written by Larry Allison

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Quick Analysis

The World Spins Out of Control

There is a direct, precise link between the foreign policy choices made by the Obama/Clinton/Kerry team, and the two crises which the world finds itself facing this morning.

In 2009, President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton agreed to the New START treaty with Russia, which allowed Moscow a ten to one advantage in tactical nuclear weapons. The President further weakened U.S. influence in Europe by attempting to renege on anti-missile commitments to Eastern Europe. Both were specifically part of the Administration’s “Reset” policy, which, combined with the reduction of funds for the Pentagon, was supposed to significantly improve Washington’s relations with the Kremlin. Earlier this year, that diminishment of American military presence in Europe was finalized by the withdrawal of all U.S. tanks from the continent.

Clearly, the policy was an utter failure. Moscow was emboldened to dramatically ramp up its military spending, and continued to develop a far more aggressive stance towards its neighbors. It was not unreasonable to assume that Mr. Obama would have learned from his mistake and taken a different course.  But in response to Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, the White House reacted only minimally.  Indeed, the one action that would have definitely grabbed Mr. Putin’s attention—the opening up of federally held land for oil and gas exploitation, a move which would have directly impacted Moscow’s ability to finance its huge military (the Russian economy is heavily dependent on the high prices it obtains from its energy sales) –was never even seriously considered.

Russia’s involvement, either directly or indirectly, in the shooting down of the civilian Malaysian airliner is a consequence of that failure.

Then there is the Middle East, and the Israeli need to defend itself by launching an incursion into Gaza.

For a brief period of time towards the end of the G.W. Bush Administration, it appeared that there was a chance for improvement in that troubled part of the planet. Whatever one’s views of the Iraq War, the people of that nation (who had suffered for so long under Saddam Hussein) actually had a chance for a better life.  They voted in free elections for the first time.  The presence of American troops provided a measure of stability. But Mr. Obama’s premature withdrawal of those forces placed Iraq into a tailspin, opening the door for extremists. The President’s support for the so-called Arab Spring, which assisted Islamic extremists in Egypt, Libya and elsewhere created an environment where the most dangerous elements of the region gained vastly more influence. Support for violence against Israel was greatly enhanced. Any chance for a more stable Israeli-Palestinian relationship was lost. The danger to Israel was pointedly and substantially expanded due to the White House’s very obvious estrangement from the Jewish state.

As a consequence, 1,200 rockets were launched by terrorists into Israel, leaving it no choice but to respond with armed force.
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It would be charitable to state that policy mistakes can be forgiven if, once the consequences become apparent, different, corrective measures are taken.  But despite clear evidence from one end of the planet to the other, the Obama Administration continues on its disastrous path. Since there is little indication that the President will change course, the question of why he fails to do so must be examined.  The possibilities are deeply unsavory.

The first is that he simply rejects the entire international, American-led framework which has prevented another world war since 1945, and he is willing to endure any international chaos rather than admit that the U.S. must play an indispensable role in the globe’s stability.

The second option is that he is so blinded by egotism that he cannot bring himself to admit a mistake. There is some evidence of this in the astounding comments from the White House press office that the world is “more tranquil” than ever.

The third possibility is the most worrisome. Surrounded by a coterie of shadowy advisors with deeply questionable pasts, including individuals such as Bill Ayers, an individual linked to an aggressively unorthodox belief that America is the source of the planet’s problems rather than its cure, the President may be pursuing foreign policy goals directly the opposite of everything the U.S. has adhered to until his election. If this is the case, he has been dishonest with the nation, refusing to openly admit that he is doing so. Or, perhaps, this is the “fundamental transformation” he has spoken of, without providing any real details.

The world is spinning out of control, plunging ever closer to the depths of conflict not seen since the end of the Second World War, and Mr. Obama’s policies bear substantial responsibility for that.

 

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Quick Analysis

An imaginary foreign Policy

We appear to have entered a bizarre era when the reality of foreign threats is ignored by our elected leadership, when making sure the military uses environmentally-friendly material is more important than insuring that it performs its primary function of discouraging likely opponents from initiating an assault on us or our allies.

We live in an age were reality is an inconvenience to those making decisions, because reality doesn’t conform to their worldview.

It’s so much easier to simply make a speech, perhaps voice a threat, or even draw a red line, rather than actually make the difficult decision to do what is necessary.

A terrorist shoots up an army base?  That’s not real.  It’s just workplace violence. Ignore it. The Chinese attack their neighbors at sea? Don’t worry.  They are just proclaiming their new status.  Moscow builds their military to unprecedented levels of strength? No problem! The Cold War is over, isn’t it?  Iran is building a bomb and loudly announces that Israel should be turned to ash.  It’s just bluster. Move on, nothing to see here.

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It’s not just in the realm of foreign affairs that reality has become an inconvenience. The proposal to enact measures encouraging the closure of many power plants before substitutes can be built ignores that fact that “green” energy won’t be able to replace the lost electricity within several generations, if ever.  But never mind.

And who needs all that investment in high technology, particularly in the manned space program, when you can go to the latest 3-D science fiction thriller that’s so well filmed it seems like you’re actually in space!  Think of all that money the government can save and turn over to the food stamp program.

And why bother paying attention to the dwindling strength of the U.S. economy as Washington enacts more and more regulations that chase jobs overseas. After all, government programs can provide for all those unemployed.  And if the only jobs that are left are in fast food joints, the minimum wage can be increased so the workers can have a better income.  That may cause many eateries to close, but so what? At least the right thing was done, and the politicians and the unions can all feel better about that.