The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, the former Secretary of the U.S. Air Force, and a top Marine Corps aviator have recently and substantially pointed out dire conditions that indicate the looming end of U.S. air supremacy. Americans are still under the illusion that their air power is in a league of its own. Sadly, that is no longer true.
The U.S. retains a diminishing lead in the total number of aircraft versus any individual adversary, but worldwide commitments resulting from America being the guarantor of freedom across the globe, the advanced age of the aircraft themselves, the technological advances of potential opponents, and the growing cooperation and arms transfers between Russia and China eliminates any advantage those dwindling total numbers represent. That cooperation has included the transfer of advanced Russian air defense systems such as the S-300 to Iran and the S-400 to China. The growing closeness of the Russian-Chinese-Iranian alliance poses a massive threat to American air, land and seapower.
House Armed Services Committee member Rep. J. Randy Forbes (R-Va) and former Air Force Secretary Michael W. Wynne outline the challenge. Today, the U.S. Air Force’s fleet is the smallest and the oldest it has ever been. Meanwhile, Russia and China have been fielding and exporting new fighters and sophisticated air defenses to countries like Iran. Russia rolled out its first fifth-generation stealth fighter, the PAK-FA, in 2010. China followed in 2011, flight-testing the J-20, an F-22 look-alike, while Secretary Gates was visiting Beijing. Gen. Mark Welsh, the Air Force’s chief of staff, warned last year that future Russian and Chinese jets “will be better than anything we have today.”
Defense Industry Daily reports: “The current US Air Force fleet, whose planes are more than 26 years old on average, is the oldest in USAF history…Many transport aircraft and aerial refueling tankers are more than 40 years old – and under current plans, some may be as much as 70-80 years old before they retire…average aircraft age will climb even if the US military gets every plane it asks for in its future plans.”
The National Interest notes that the crisis is about to deepen. “Today’s Air Force is already struggling, and tomorrow’s is entirely at risk…Congress must step back and look at the collective impact of recent capacity and capability cuts on purchases of aircraft in particular. They will find that not only is there virtually no slack left in America’s current Air Force to meet global peacetime and war plan demands, the historically most innovative service is now left to incrementally upgrade existing capabilities while abandoning transformational and leap-ahead investments. Additionally, Congress must understand several trends underway in recent years that have it buying fewer and fewer planes, both in absolute and relative terms, while at the same time proposing hundreds for retirement.”
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General Frank Gorenc, commander of U.S. air forces in Europe and Africa, quoted in the Diplomat reported that “NATO’s air superiority vis-à-vis Russia is waning.” The authoritative and objective publication Jane’s Defence Weekly states that “Russia’s military modernisation has diminished NATO’s air superiority in Europe.”
A Rand Corporation study warns “in the event of a conflict [involving China],…the United States could find itself engaged with adversary air forces both qualitatively and quantitatively superior to any it has fought since the end of the Cold War…Indeed, the United States has not fought a conflict against an adversary capable of challenging its supremacy in the air since at least the Korean War.”
Forbes and Wynne advocate building more F-22 air superiority fighters to help begin resolving the issue. The original number of F-22’s slated to be built has been slashed, they note. “the Air Force had scaled back the F-22 program from 750 to 381 aircraft. In 2009, however, [former defense secretary] Mr. Gates canceled a number of defense-procurement programs and limited F-22 production to 187 jets.
The Marines have their own airpower issues. Lt. Gen. Jon Davis Davis, deputy commandant for aviation, is quoted in the Marine Corps Times noting that there are not even enough aircraft within that service to allow for adequate training, and too few of those on active duty are actually operational and available to perform.