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U.S. Economy May Revive in 2017, Part 2

Conclusion of two part forecast of the U.S. economy

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reports optimism among its members. “12 percent of small business owners have faith their business conditions will be ‘much better’ in the next six months (up from the 9 percent who said the same earlier this year), showing that despite sales numbers, owners still retain a positive outlook… ‘It is encouraging to see many businesses improving their outlook about the future, after a brief dip in confidence earlier this year,’ said Buck Stinson, SVP of Small Business Card at Capital One. While concerns related to costs and regulations still exist, we are glad to see that optimism is on the rise…”

The NFIB has blamed regulatory overload as a key reason why so many small businesses have been pessimistic during the Obama Administration.  “The uncertainty caused by future regulation negatively affects a small business’ ability to plan for future growth. While regulation is necessary, it must be pragmatic and sensible. Agencies need to carefully analyze how their regulations affect small businesses. At the same time, federal regulators should work with small businesses to help ensure compliance with the spirit of the law, rather than aggressively impose fines and penalties for violations that result from confusion…Since January 2009, ‘government requirements and red tape’ has been a top-three problem for small business owners, per NFIBs monthly Small Business Economic Trends survey. According to the 2012 NFIB Small Business Problems and Priorities report ‘unreasonable government regulations’ ranks fifth on the measures of small business problem importance. Within the small business problem clusters identified by the Small Business Problems and Priorities report ‘regulations’ rank second behind taxes. There are 3,297 federal regulations in the pipeline, waiting for implementation, according to the Administration’s fall 2015 regulatory agenda. About 10 new regulations are finalized every day, according to data on regulations.gov, adding to the volumes of rules small business owners must comply with.”

CNBC notes:  “One thing is for sure: for many on Main Street, the notion of deregulation is welcome. Nonpartisan advocacy groups say a Trump presidency may spark new, important discussions about how regulations impact the country’s smallest businesses.”

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“Many of our nation’s laws give broad discretion to federal regulators to force sweeping change over vast swaths of the American economy. Over the last 15 years, we have seen fundamental overhauls of major economic sectors: the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley financial services “reform” law, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, and restrictions on affordable energy sources. For those Americans who are struggling financially, the need for regulatory reform has never been greater. Instead of chipping away at the margins, CEI believes we need substantial reforms that rein in federal bureaucrats so that our economy, and ultimately American consumers, businesses, and entrepreneurs, can benefit and make real progress toward prosperity…While every year Congress passes just a few dozen laws, federal regulatory agencies issue more than 3,000 regulations—but lawmaking by the unelected does not end there.

“Agencies also issue thousands of guidance documents, interpretive bulletins, notices, memoranda, proclamations, and even blog posts that carry regulatory force, but do not go through the formal rulemaking process. Trump should insist upon congressional affirmation of rules, guidance, and other agency proclamations likely to have significant economic impact, or that are otherwise controversial. Unfortunately, the current watchdog gives the regulatory state little to fear. The White House Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) reviews only a fraction of rules and often misses deadlines. That could change if Trump makes the most of his promised regulatory moratorium and toughens review and analysis of regulations. Trump could boost audits and cost analysis dramatically via executive order and work with Congress to bring now-exempt independent agencies into the fold. The following are three actions President-elect Trump should take to rein in America’s regulatory state.”

CEI recommends strengthening regulatory oversight by executive order, expanding executive restrictions over agency guidance documents, memoranda and other “regulatory dark matter,” and working with congress to implement a pro-growth agenda.

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Quick Analysis

U.S. Economy May Revive in 2017

The First of a two-part series

Can the American economy revive with the change in the White House? It’s a question being asked across the nation, and across the world.

In 2007, the “Great Recession,” brought about in large part due to policies that compelled financial institutions to provide loans to those without proven means to afford them (a policy begun under President Carter and expanded under President Clinton) caused a major disruption in the U.S. economy.  Despite claims to the contrary, America never truly recovered. Growth has failed to average 3% in a decade. During President Obama’s second term, the average growth in the U.S. economy was a mere 2.2%. Middle-income employment remains moribund. Business startups are weak.

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis notes “The number of startup businesses continues to slide. In 1977, the share of US firms that were less than a year old was at 16%. In 2014, the latest data, the percentage was 8%.” The Wall Street Journal  reports: “The U.S. economy is inching along, productivity is flagging and millions of Americans appear locked out of the labor market. One key factor intertwined with this loss of dynamism: The U.S. is creating startup businesses at historically low rates… government data shows a decades-long slowdown in entrepreneurship. The share of private firms less than a year old has dropped from more than 12% during much of the 1980s to only about 8% since 2010. In 2014, the most recent year of data, the startup rate was the second-lowest on record, after 2010, according to Census Bureau figures released last month, so there’s little sign of a post-recession rebound…The share of employment at such firms, meanwhile, has slipped from nearly 4% to about 2% of private-sector jobs…If the U.S. were creating new firms at the same rate as in the 1980s, that would be the equivalent of more than 200,000 companies and 1.8 million jobs a year.”

The continued sluggishness is not the result of a downward business cycle nor a natural disaster.  It is the result of government policies that have overregulated and overtaxed, and provided disincentives to hiring full-time staff.

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While a number of policy changes could result in significant economic growth, the potential, (according to Trump, the promise) of deregulation may prove to be among the most significant factors.

The House Freedom Caucus has released a large list   of what they describe as burdensome regulations that should be repealed within the first 100 days of the Trump Administration.  In releasing the list, the office of Caucus Chairman Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) stated:

“The report contains over 200 rules and regulations, many of which have been implemented by the Obama administration, that have been devastating for working families, businesses, and taxpayers – including the overtime rule, fiduciary regulations, and heavy environmental restrictions. Rep. Meadows has been in touch with members of the Trump transition team and intends to encourage and work with the new administration to roll back these regulations within the first 100 days of President-elect Trump’s term. [According to Rep. Meadows] “These last 8 years, we have seen a disturbing trend of the federal government unnecessarily inserting themselves more and more into the lives of hardworking Americans – and the results have been economically disastrous…When the American people spoke on November 8, they provided conservatives with an opportunity to restore order in our government and to remove the out-of-control bureaucratic red tape that so often stunts the growth of otherwise successful Americans. My colleagues and I look forward to helping President-elect Trump in any way we can as we work toward the most productive ‘first 100 days’ in modern history. To the working people who have felt the burden of these last 8 years so heavily — help is on the way.”

The Report concludes tomorrow