The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its coverage of the Defense Intelligence Agency’s just-released report on China’s powerful military.
Nuclear Forces and Weapons
China invests considerable resources to maintain a limited,
survivable nuclear force that can guarantee a damaging retaliatory strike. As
part of this, China has long maintained a “no first use” (NFU) policy, stating
it would use nuclear forces only in response to a nuclear strike against
China.There is some ambiguity, however, over the conditions under which China’s
NFU policy would apply. Some PLA officers have written publicly of the need to
spell out conditions under which China might need to use nuclear weapons first;
for example, if an enemy’s conventional attack threatened the survival of
China’s nuclear force or of the regime itself. Nevertheless, there has been no
indication that national leaders are willing to attach such nuances and caveats
to China’s NFU doctrine.
China is developing a new generation of mobile missiles,
with warheads consisting of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles
(MIRVs) and penetration aids, intended to ensure the viability of its strategic
deterrent in the face of continued advances in U.S. and, to a lesser extent,
Russian strategic ISR, preci sion strike, and missile defense capabilities.
China is enhancing peacetime readiness levels for these nuclear forces to
ensure responsiveness. China maintains nuclear-capable deliv ery systems in its
Rocket Force and Navy. As of 2017, the Air Force had been reassigned a nuclear
mission, probably with a developmental strategic bomber. The bomber’s
deployment would provide China with its first credible nuclear triad of delivery
systems dis persed across land, sea, and air—a posture considered since the
Cold War to improve sur vivability and strategic deterrence.
PLA writings express the value of a “launch on warning”
nuclear posture, an approach to deterrence that uses heightened readiness,
improved surveillance, and streamlined decisionmaking processes to enable a
more rapid response to enemy attack. These writings highlight the posture’s
consistency with Chi – na’s NFU policy. China is working to develop a
space-based early warning capability that could support this posture in the
future.84 The PLA is developing a range of technologies to counter U.S. and
other countries’ ballistic missile defense systems, including maneuverable
reentry vehicles (MARVs), MIRVs, decoys, chaff, jamming, thermal shielding, and
hypersonic glide vehicles. In addition, the PLA is likely to continue deploying
more sophisticated C2 systems and refining C2 pro cesses as growing numbers of
mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and future nuclear-powered
ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) deterrence patrols require the PLA to
safeguard the integrity of nuclear release authority for a larger, more
dispersed force.
China maintains a stockpile of nuclear warheads and
continues research on and develop ment and production of new nuclear weapons. The PLA probably has multiple nuclear war –
head designs that are decades old and require routine observation, maintenance,
or refurbishment to maintain effectiveness. China’s nuclear weapon design and
production orga nization—the China Academy of Engineering Physics—is the key
organization in developing and maintaining China’s nuclear force. It employs
tens of thousands of personnel, and its scientists are capable of conducting
all aspects of nuclear weapon design research, including nuclear physics,
materials science, electronics, explosives, and computer modeling China has the
required industrial capacity to enrich uranium and produce plutonium for mil-
itary needs. The China National Nuclear Cor poration operates several uranium
enrichment facilities organized under three plants. China probably intends the
bulk of its enrichment capacity to support its burgeoning nuclear power
industry but could devote some enrichment capacity to support military needs. China’s
plutonium production reactors probably ceased operation in the 1980s.95
However, China’s reprocessing facilities can extract plutonium from spent
reactor fuel.
Biological and Chemical Warfare
China has consistently claimed that it has never researched,
produced, or possessed bio logical weapons and would never do so. Beijing says
China has researched only defensive biological technology necessary for China’s
defense. China acceded to the Biological
Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1984. It declared the Academy of Military Science’s
Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology in Beijing as a biodefense research
facility. China regularly and voluntarily submits to confidence-building
measures under the BWC. Although China is not a member of the Australia Group,
Chi na’s export control regulations have been in line with Australia Group
guidelines and control lists since 2002. China’s biotechnology infrastructure
is sufficient to produce some biological agents or toxins on a large scale.
China has declared that it once operated a small chemical
weapons program for offensive purposes; however, Beijing has consistently
maintained that the program was dismantled and all agents and munitions were
used before China ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1997
Beijing also has declared two historical chemical warfare production facilities
that may have produced mustard gas, phosgene, and lewisite. In 1998, Beijing
published chemical export control regulations consistent with Organization for
the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) standards. It also has consistently
updated its chemical control list to reflect changes made to the Aus tralia
Group chemical control list. China contin – ues to reaffirm its compliance with
the CWC as well as its support for the activities conducted by the OPCW. Since
acceding to the CWC, China has declared hundreds of dualuse facilities and has
hosted hundreds of facility inspections and OPCW-led seminars.
China’s chemical infrastructure is sufficient to research,
develop, and produce some chemical agents on a large scale.
China probably has the technical expertise to weaponize
chemical and biological warfare (CBW) agents, and China’s robust armaments
industry and numerous conventional weapon systems, including missiles, rockets,
and artillery, probably could be adapted to deliver CBW agents.116 China has
the technical expertise, military units, and equipment necessary to detect CBW
agents and to defend against a CBW attack.
Entities and individuals in China continue to supply countries
of concern with technologies, components, and raw materials applicable to
weapons of mass destruction and missile programs. Such material and technology
transfers could assist countries in developing their own production
capabilities.
Space/Counterspace
The PLA historically has managed China’s space program and
continues to invest in improving China’s capabilities in space-based ISR,
satellite communication, satellite navigation, and meteorology, as well as
human spaceflight and robotic space exploration. China uses its on-orbit and
ground-based assets to support national civil, economic, political, and
military goals and objectives. Strategists in the PLA regard the ability to use
space-based systems and deny them to adversaries as central to enabling modern
informatized warfare. As a result, the PLA continues to strengthen its military
space capabilities despite its public stance against the militarization of
space. Space operations probably will form an integral component of other PLA
campaigns and serve a key role in enabling actions to counter third-party
intervention during military conflicts.
China continues to develop a variety of counterspace
capabilities designed to limit or prevent an adversary’s use of space-based
assets during crisis or conflict. In addition to the research and possible
development of satellite jammers and directed-energy weapons, China has
probably made progress on kinetic energy weap ons, including the anti-satellite
missile system tested in July 2014.China is employing more sophisticated
satellite operations and probably is testing on-orbit dual-use technologies
that could be applied to counterspace missions.
The PLA’s Strategic Support Force (SSF), established in
December 2015, has an important role in the management of China’s aero – space
warfare capabilities. Consolidating the PLA’s space, cyber, and electronic
warfare capabilities into the SSF enables cross-domain synergy in “strategic
frontiers.” The SSF may also be responsible for research, development, testing,
and fielding of certain “new concept” weapons, such as directed energy and
kinetic energy weapons. The SSF’s space function is primarily focused on
satellite launch and operation to support PLA reconnaissance, navigation, and
communication requirements.
Space and counterspace capabilities—like missile forces,
advanced air and seapower, and cyber capabilities—are critical for China to
fight and win modern military engagements. To support various requirements,
China has built a vast ground and maritime infrastructure enabling spacecraft
and space launch vehicle (SLV) manufacture, launch, C2, and data downlink.
Satellites
China employs a robust space-based ISR capability designed
to enhance its worldwide situational awareness. Used for civil and military remote
sensing and mapping, terrestrial and maritime surveillance, and military
intelligence collection, China’s ISR satellites are capable of providing
electro-optical (EO) and synthetic aperture radar imagery, as well as
electronic intelligence and signals intelligence data.
China pursues parallel programs for military and commercial
communications satellites (COMSATs), and owns and operates about 30 COMSATs
used for civil, commercial, and military satellite communications. The PLA
operates a small number of dedicated military COMSATs.123 China’s civil COMSATs
incorpo – rate turnkey off-the-shelf commercially manu – factured components,
and China produces its military-dedicated satellites domestically.China
continues to launch new COMSATs to replace its aging satellites and increase
its overall satellite communications bandwidth, capacity, availability, and
reliability.
China uses its domestically produced Dong – fanghong-4
(DFH-4) satellite bus—the structure that contains the components of the
satellite—for its military COMSATs. Even though early satellites suffered
mission-ending or mission-degrading failures, the DFH-4 has become a reliable
satellite bus. The PLA and government continue to vigorously support the
program and have signed numerous contracts with domestic and international
customers for future DFH-4 COMSATs. The DFH-4 bus has also allowed China to
position itself as a competitor in the international COMSAT market,
orchestrating many contracts with foreign countries to supply on-orbit satellites,
ground-control systems, and training.
In 2008, China launched the first Tianlian data-relay
satellite of its China Tracking and Data Relay Satellite constellation. As of
December 2017, China had four Tianlian data-relay satellites on orbit, allowing
China to relay commands and data to and from its satellites even when those
satellites were not over Chinese territory.
In 2000, China launched its first Beidou satellites to test
the development of a regional satellite navigation system. By 2012, China had established
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satellites and had initiated testing of a global constellation similar to the
U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS). As Beidou satellites continue to be
placed in orbit, by 2020 China will complete its global constellation of 27
Beidou satellites while maintaining a separate regional constellation providing
redundant coverage over Asia.
China owns and operates 10 domestically produced Fengyun and
Yunhai meteorological satellites.128 The China Meteorological Administration
supports civilian and military customers with the delivery of meteorological
data and detailed weather forecasts. The newer satellites house almost a dozen
all-weather sensors concerning atmospheric conditions as well as maritime
terrain data for military and civilian customers. China’s membership in the
World Meteorological Organization grants it free access to global
meteorological data from the international organization’s 191 members.
Counterspace
The PLA is acquiring a range of technologies to improve
China’s counterspace capabilities. China is developing antisatellite
capabilities, including research and possible development of directed-energy
weapons and satellite jammers, and probably has made progress on the
antisatellite missile system that it tested in July 2014. China is employing
more sophisticated satellite operations and probably is test – ing dual-use
technologies that could be applied to counterspace missions.
China has not publicly acknowledged the existence of any new
programs since it confirmed it used an antisatellite missile to destroy a
weather satellite in 2007. PLA writings emphasize the necessity of “destroying,
damaging, and interfering with the enemy’s reconaissance…and communications
satellites,” suggesting that such systems, as well as nav – igation and early
warning satellites, could be among the targets of attacks designed to “blind
and deafen the enemy.”
Human Spaceflight and Space-Exploration Probes
China became the third country to achieve independent human
spaceflight in 2003, when it successfully orbited the crewed Shenzhou-5
spacecraft, followed by space laboratory Tian – gong-1 and -2 launches in 2011
and 2016, respectively. China intends to assemble and operate a permanently
inhabited, modular space station capable of hosting foreign pay – loads and
astronauts by 2022.
China is the third country to have soft-landed a rover on
the Moon, deploying the rover Yutu as part of the Chang’e-3 mission in 2013.
China’s Lunar Exploration Program plans to launch the first mission to land a
rover on the lunar far side in 2018 (Chang’e-4), followed by its first lunar
sample-return mission in 2019 (Chang’e-5).
Space Launch
China has a robust fleet of launch vehicles to support its
requirements. The Chang Zheng, or Long March, and Kuaizhou SLVs can launch
Chinese spacecraft to any orbit.
Cyberspace
Authoritative PLA writings identify con – trolling the
“information domain”—sometimes referred to as “information dominance”—as a
prerequisite for achieving victory in a modern war and as essential for
countering outside intervention in a conflict. The PLA’s broader concept of the
information domain and of infor – mation operations encompasses the network,
electromagnetic, psychological, and intelli – gence domains, with the “network
domain” and corresponding “network warfare” roughly analogous to the current
U.S. concept of the cyber domain and cyberwarfare.
The PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) may be the first step
in the development of a cyber – force by combining cyber reconnaissance,
cyberattack, and cyberdefense capabilities into one organization to reduce
bureaucratic hurdles and centralize command and control of PLA cyber units.
Official pronouncements offer limited details on the organization’s makeup or
mission. President Xi simply said during the SSF founding ceremony on 31
December 2015 that the SSF is a “new-type combat force to maintain national
security and [is] an import – ant growth point for the PLA’s combat
capabilities.” The SSF probably was formed to consolidate cyber elements of the
former PLA General Staff Third (Technical Reconnaissance) and Fourth
(Electronic Countermea sures and Radar) Departments and Informati – zation
Department.
The PLA could use its cyberwarfare capabilities to support
military operations in three key areas. First, cyber reconnaissance allows the
PLA to collect technical and operational data for intelligence and potential
operational planning for cyberattacks because the accesses and tactics,
techniques, and procedures for cyber reconnaissance translate into those also
necessary to conduct cyberattacks. Second, the PLA could employ its cyberattack
capabilities to establish information dominance in the early stages of a conflict
to constrain an adversary’s actions or slow mobilization and deployment by
targeting network-based C2, C4ISR, logistics, and commercial activities. Third,
cyberwarfare capabilities can serve as a force multiplier when coupled with
conventional capabilities during a conflict.
PLA military writings detail the effectiveness of
information operations and cyberwarfare in modern conflicts, and advocate
targeting an adversary’s C2 and logistics networks to affect the adversary’s
ability to operate during the early stages of conflict. One authoritative
source identifies an adversary’s C2 system as “the heart of information
collection, control, and application on the battlefield. It is also the nerve
center of the entire battlefield.”145 China’s cyberwarfare could also focus on
targeting links and nodes in an adversary’s mobility system and identifying
operational vulnerabilities in the mobilization and deployment phase.
The PLA also plays a role in cyber theft. In May 2014, the
U.S. Department of Justice indicted five PLA officers on charges of hacking
into the networks of U.S. companies for commercial gain. Beijing maintains that
the Chinese government and military do not engage in cyberespionage and that
the United States fabricated the charges.
Denial and Deception
The PLA uses military deception to reduce the effectiveness
of adversaries’ reconnaissance and to deceive adversaries about the PLA’s
warfighting intentions, actions, or major targets. PLA tradition emphasizes
deception and psychological manipulation to create asymmetric advantages and
enable surprise. The PLA has a longstanding doctrine for deception, and claims
that it regularly practices deception during training. PLA sources describe
military deception as a form of com – bat support, on par with ISR,
meteorological support, missile calculation, engineering, and logistic support.
Denial and deception activities include:
• Concealing and
camouflaging.
• Blending false or
misleading military movements with actual deployments and war preparations.
• Employing counterreconnaissance: understanding and
evading, jamming, or destroying the whole spectrum of enemy reconnaissance
activities against PLA units and facilities.
• Using deceptive maneuvers, psychological ploys, and
unorthodox schemes to deceive, confuse, or otherwise manipulate an adversary
into a militarily disadvantageous position
Skillfully employed, deception can paralyze an enemy force
and achieve decisive results. Options range from no-warning strikes, violent
multiaxis strikes, and envelopment to a less ambitious attempt to confuse the
adversary regarding the exact timing, nature, direction, or scope of a PLA
operation.
Logistics and Defense Industrial Modernization
The PLA’s increased focus on developing the capabilities
required to conduct joint operations under “informatized” conditions that began
in the 1990s has spurred efforts during the past two decades to develop the
PLA’s capacity to supply and sustain its operations. Along these lines, the PLA
has taken steps to modernize its defense-industrial base to ensure that the PLA
is developing capabilities to meet future mission requirements. Key areas of
focus have included civil-military integration, support to joint combat
operations, and high-tech weapons development.
Logistics
According to various military officials, the PLA’s logistics
system historically has been plagued with inefficiencies that degrade com – bat
readiness and restrict its ability to support and sustain modern joint combat
operations. Since the late 1990s, the PLA has invested in the modernization of
its logistics system, force structure, and supporting infrastructure to enable
a transition from a rigid command-directed and manpower-dependent system, rife
with corruption. The overarching objective of these reforms is to build a
precision logistic support system that is capable of comprehensive, timely, and
accurate logistic support to PLA joint operations.
This transformation is dependent on building high-efficiency transportation and warehouse infrastructure, fielding new combat support equipment, integrating comprehensive information systems, and developing a new breed of officer capable of leveraging these capabilities to support rapid mobilization and high-tempo combat operations. For China, logistics modernization also is heavily dependent on the PLA’s ability to leverage the full potential of China’s comprehensive national power to maximize combat capabilities, ensure peacetime efficiencies, and guarantee a constant state of combat readiness The PLA has made great progress in logistics reform by improving logistics resources and procedures during the past two decades, and enhancing the PLA’s ability to mobilize rapidly and project support along internal lines of communication for large operations (mostly disaster responses and exercises). Since 2016, the PLA has implemented structural reforms to improve command and control, procedural reforms to improve civil-military integration, and oversight mechanisms to eliminate waste and inefficiencies that stem from longstanding corrupt practices within the logistics sector. The successful implementation of these measures remains to be seen, given the substantial cultural challenges of executing joint operations and reducing corruption. The extent to which the PLA will be able to sustain external military force projection operations effectively also remains in question because the PLA’s experience is still nascent. Efforts to support the PLA’s first overseas military base, in Djibouti, may provide insight into these capabilities.
The Report Concludes Tomorrow
Photo: A pilot cadet assigned to an aviation brigade under the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force Harbin Flight Academy gives a thumbs-up gesture in the cockpit of his JL-9 fighter trainer airplane prior to a flight training exercise in mid-January, 2019. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Liu Wei)
