Cuba and Russia – USA Gov Policy

Mr. Obama’s March 21 visit to Cuba will the first by a U.S. president in 88 years. The question is why the President believes it is appropriate to travel there now.

U.S. Cuban relations, already rocky following Fidel Castro’s alliance with the U.S.S.R., took a dramatic turn for the worse when Havana decided to serve as a forward base for Moscow’s nuclear missiles in 1962. A little known postscript to that event, detailed by the World Press was Castro’s attempts to retain 100 tactical nuclear weapons even after the Soviets were forced to withdraw by a U.S. naval blockade. The Cuban regime wasn’t just a passive host. Havana urged Moscow to launch an atomic strike against America.

Despite The President’s claims that significant progress has been made, the facts speak otherwise. The Castro regime continues to oppress its people, and continues to support terrorism. In addition, it has again become an outpost for the Russian military in the western hemisphere.

Amnesty International reports that “Peaceful demonstrators and human rights activists are routinely detained for exercising their rights to freedom of expression, association, assembly and movement. Activists are often detained to stop them from attending public demonstrations or private meetings. Independent journalists reporting on these detentions are themselves harassed by the authorities or put behind bars. Often, the relatives of those detained are never informed of their loved ones’ whereabouts. According to the Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation (Comisión Cubana de Derechos Humanos y Reconciliación Nacional), there were 768 “politically” motivated detentions in August 2015 alone – up from 674 in July 2015. “

The situation, since Mr. Obama’s opening to the Castro regime, has become worse, not better.

It’s not just what the Castro regime does inside its own nation that’s a problem for the U.S.—it’s actions directly endangering America need to be taken into account.

The Congressional Research Service notes that “On April 14, 2015, the President announced his intention to rescind the terrorism designation (Cuba had remained on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism since 1982) from the government of Cuba, a decision that was fulfilled by the Secretary of State on May 29, 2015.” This is contrary to the evidence.

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Another issue noted in the 2013 terrorism report that has been mentioned for many years is Cuba’s harboring of fugitives wanted in the United States. The report maintained that Cuba provided such support as housing, food ration books, and medical care for these individuals. U.S. fugitives from justice in Cuba include convicted murderers and numerous hijackers, most of whom entered Cuba in the 1970s and early 1980s.16 For example, Joanne Chesimard, also known as Assata Shakur, was added to the FBI’s Most Wanted Terrorist list on May 2, 2013. Chesimard was part of militant group known as the Black Liberation Army. In 1977, she was convicted for the 1973 murder of a New Jersey State Police officer and sentenced to life in prison. Chesimard escaped from prison in 1979, and according to the FBI, lived underground before fleeing to Cuba in 1984.17 In addition to Chesimard and other fugitives from the past, a number of U.S. fugitives from justice wanted for Medicare and other types of insurance fraud reportedly have fled to Cuba in recent years.

The danger is even greater than terrorism.

The Diplomat reports that “A senior Russian defense official has announced that Moscow is looking to build military bases throughout different countries in Asia and the Western Hemisphere” including Cuba.”

Capital Hill Cubans notes that “Throughout the year, the Castro regime has continued to host and harbor Russian spy ships tasked with monitoring sensitive U.S. defense networks… The Russian research ship Yantar has been tracked from the northern Atlantic near Canada since late August as it makes its way south toward Cuba. Defense officials familiar with reports on the Russian ship say the Yantar is believed to be gathering intelligence on underwater sensors and other equipment used by U.S. nuclear submarines based at Kings Bay, Georgia. The submarines, their transit lanes and training areas stretch from the coastal base through the Atlantic to Europe.”

Fox News reports that Cuban troops are operating in Syria, manning Russian tanks as they attack rebel forces supported by the United States.

Cuba oppresses its own people, supports terrorism, and enthusiastically acts as a forward base for the dangerous and aggressive Putin regime. President Obama needs to explain why he believes it is appropriate to travel to Cuba, and why he continually and incorrectly states that conditions there have improved.

It has been a year since the White House’s opening of relations with Cuba. Mr. Obama’s policy may soon be broadened, as the President considers travelling to the island nation in the near future.

A review of the results indicate that the move was a significant error. Havana, Instead of responding to the White House’s embrace with a less belligerent foreign policy and enhanced human rights at home, has doubled down on the worst aspects of the Castro family regime.

It didn’t take long for Cuba to rebuke Obama’s bid for friendship. Foreign Policy noted:

“Indeed, no sooner had Castro met with Obama than he took to the floor of the U.N. General Assembly to unleash a typical jeremiad against the United States, chockfull of hoary Cold War rhetoric denouncing the embargo, demanding reparations (to the tune of $1 trillion) for the embargo, ordering the return of the U.S. naval facility at Guantanamo Bay, and calling for Puerto Rican independence (which Puerto Ricans do not even want.)”

The Washington Post has reported: President Raúl Castro’s regime… “seems to have done little beyond reopening its Washington embassy…Mr. Castro’s son-in-law, an army general, still controls the dollar-earning tourist industry, the Internet largely remains unavailable to ordinary Cubans, and, most important, dissidents remain subject to arbitrary arrest and detention — including several snatched off the streets for daring to approach Pope Francis during his recent visit.”

According to information from The Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami, originally shared with the Panama Post, “General Leopoldo Cintra Frías, head of the Cuban Armed Forces…is leading a group of Cuban military personnel … in support of Syria’s dictator Assad and, in Cold War fashion, the Russian contingent…two Russian-made planes arriving in Syria carrying approximately 300 Cuban soldiers. They further detail that the Cuban soldiers will man Russian tanks that have been provided to Syrian head-of-state Bashar al-Assad. Their duty will be to fight Islamic State forces and others who threaten Assad’s grip on power.”

The Castro family regime has not limited its aggressive and disturbing foreign policy moves to areas far from the Western Hemisphere. Capitol Hill Cubans outlined several examples that indicate Havana is continuing its threatening practices, which have included arms deals with North Korea and South American terrorists:

“- Russian intelligence ship, Yantar, targeted a U.S. nuclear missile submarine base and underwater transit routes off the eastern seaboard, as it headed for safe-harbor in Cuba. Throughout the year, the Castro regime has continued to host and harbor Russian spy ships tasked with monitoring sensitive U.S. defense networks

“- As Russia restores military-industrial cooperation with Cuba, it may soon reopen the Lourdes signal intelligence center near Havana, announced a senior member of the State Duma Security Committee.
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“- “We intend to continue cooperation in supplying the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces with modern weapons and military hardware,” Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said at a meeting in Moscow with Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Cuba Ricardo Cabrisas.

“- A Russian spy ship, The Viktor Leonov, returned to the Port of Havana during a visit by European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini. Her visit to Cuba also ‘coincided’ with a visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

“- A Russian spy ship docked in central Havana on the eve of a visit to Cuba by the first U.S. delegation for “normalization” talks. The Viktor Leonov, an armed intelligence-gathering vessel that monitors US communications, arrived at a passenger cruise terminal in full public view for what a Russian embassy official called a “friendly” three-day stay.”

Internally, Cuba a remains as repressive as ever. The Heritage Foundation reports:

“Cuba is further than ever from becoming a democracy where people enjoy normal civil liberties; it is in fact closer to becoming what China specialist have identified as a rival model, a ‘resilient authoritarian regime’… the Castro regime thumbed its nose at the world by arresting between 150-200 dissidents on Human Rights Day…regime-organized mobs have blocked a brave group of middle-aged women known as the Ladies in White from marching after church service. These women are always insulted, often beaten and occasionally arrested.”

“Meanwhile, Castro has put family members in charge of a corrupt regime that can now expect to have durability after the two Castro brothers pass from the scene. Castro’s son-in-law, Gen. Luis Alberto Rodriguez, controls an estimated 90 percent of the Cuban economy through the holding company he leads, GAESA. As Bloomberg put it recently about would-be foreign investors, “wait until they learn all roads lead to Raul Castro’s son-in-law.”

“The island’s defenseless dissidents have bitterly denounced what they term Obama’s betrayal of their movement.”

The Wall Street Journal ‘s Bret Stephens reports that, since Obama’s opening to Havana last year, 8,000 cubans have been arrested for political reasons.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.