This article was written by Daria Novak, a former State Department official in the Reagan Administration.
The United States faces an exceptional threat from the growing strength of the submarine fleets of both China and Russia, as their U.S. counterpart struggles to avoid deterioration from lack of adequate funding.
The Diplomat notes that China now has a larger submarine fleet than that United States, U.S. Vice Admiral Joseph Mulloy said in testimony to] the House Armed Service Committee’s Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee…”China is building some “fairly amazing submarines, both diesel- and nuclear-powered…”
America has 71 commissioned submarines. China counters that with a number estimated to be slightly larger. The number of U.S. attack submarines will shrink from 52 to only 41 within the next decade, even as China’s number expands.
Add that to Russia’s fleet, and the U.S. is significantly outnumbered. Global Firepower estimates that Moscow has 60 submarines at its disposal.
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Asia Times notes that even as the U.S. plans to build some additional subs, older vessels are going out of service faster than new models can replace them. The publication also notes that “the [U.S.] Navy has a standing requirement for 48 attack submarines, but combatant commanders say they are only receiving about 62 percent of the subs they need to meet growing threats in Asia and Europe. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson said … that the 48-sub requirement is based off of analysis from 2006.” However, since then, Russia has expanded its fleet. “…we really didn’t have to account for a resurgent Russia…The strategic landscape has changed sufficiently that we have to constantly reassess.”
A standard response to discussions concerning the rising numbers of America’s potential adversaries is that U.S. subs are superior in quality. Unfortunately, that factor is rapidly diminishing. Even if the Chinese don’t precisely match the U.S. in quality, their increased numbers will make up for the difference. The National Interest notes that “The technological edge the U.S. Navy—which is already woefully short on attack boats—is counting on might not be sufficient to counter Chinese numerical superiority.
But China is catching up on quality.The National Interest reports that some analysts believe that Beijing’s new Type 093B nuclear-powered attack submarine is on par with the U.S. Navy’s Improved Los Angeles-class boats. “If the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s newest boats are able to match the capabilities of the U.S. Navy’s shrinking undersea fleet, Washington could be in serious trouble.” The journal also reports that “Back in 2006, a Chinese Song-class attack submarine, created at least partially by Russian and Western technology … tailed the Japan-based U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk in the East China Sea near Okinawa without being identified. While such a shadowing operation is quite normal, the sub “surfaced within five miles of the carrier, in deep waters off Okinawa, and only then was it spotted, by one of the carrier’s planes on a routine surveillance flight.” Such submarines are armed with advanced anti-ship missile and wake-homing torpedoes.
President Obama said he couldn’t find “Shovel Ready Projects” to stimulate the economy and provide jobs for American workers. Defending America by building an adequate number of submarines would certainly solve his quest. Ways could be found to make the project more affordable. New technology allows for the construction of far less expensive conventional submarines that could fill the Navy’s gap for less cost than a nuclear version.