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China’s Naval Threat to World Commerce

A lion’s share of world trade moves through Indo-Pacific waters increasingly threatened by China’s large navy. Indo-Pacific basin nations will represent two-thirds of the world’s economy in 10 years.

Clearly, if any nation establishes an armed stranglehold in the region, the consequences for the global economy will be dire. It is a source of deep concern that China appears to be doing exactly that.

In early July, China held threatening naval drills near the Paracel Islands. Both Vietnam and the Philippines protested.

China’s navy has a recent history of doing more than just practice drills. Several years ago, It invaded a portion of the Philippine’s offshore Exclusive Economic Zone, a move condemned by the World Court at the Hague.

U.S., Australia, and Japan have met to discuss the challenge. Australian Minister for Defense Linda Reynolds, Japanese Minister of Defense KONO Taro, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper convened a virtual trilateral defense ministerial meeting on July 7. They reaffirmed their joint commitment to enhance security, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region, and expressed serious concern about recent incidents, including the continued militarization of disputed features, dangerous or coercive use of coast guard vessels and “maritime militia,” and efforts to disrupt other countries’ resource exploitation activities.  

The danger is evident. Beijing’s fleet has more major combatants than the U.S. navy. It has 537 ships (compared to America’s 290.) Those ships are manned by 240,000 personnel, including 15,000 marines and 26,000 members of its air wing.

While the U.S. Navy currently has more large vessels, China is moving to close that gap. Of particular note is its two aircraft carriers.

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In a recent statement, Navy Adm. Philip S. Davidson emphasized that The Indo-Pacific is the most significant region for America’s future, and it has become the nation’s highest-priority theater. He stressed that the Chinese Communist Party represents a profound danger to the world comunity.

“I think the greatest strategic challenge to the United States comes from the People’s Republic of China,” he said. Davidson also noted that Russia is a factor in the Indo-Pacific region, and North Korea continues to be a challenge.

While the rest of the world’s nations have desperately sought to cope with the China-originated COVID-19 pandemic, which spread through the negligence of the Beijing regime, Admiral Davidson emphasized that the Chinese Communist Party is “emboldened” by the results of the disaster.

“[The party] seeks to exploit this current global pandemic crisis, and they’re doing so with more assertive military behavior, malign diplomatic and information behavior throughout the Indo-Pacific and, really, across the globe,” he said, adding “Make no mistake, the party is actively seeking to supplant the established rules-based international order, trying to dictate new norms and behaviors to the international community —  one that they articulate as a new order with Chinese characteristics.”

China’s increasing naval power, and its significant presence across the globe, prompted a warning from the U.S. Naval Institute.  “China’s navy, which China has been steadily modernizing for more than 25 years, since the early to mid-1990s, has become a formidable military force within China’s near-seas region, and it is conducting a growing number of operations in more-distant waters, including the broader waters of the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and waters around Europe. China’s navy is viewed as posing a major challenge to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain wartime control of blue-water ocean areas in the Western Pacific—the first such challenge the U.S. Navy has faced since the end of the Cold War—and forms a key element of a Chinese challenge to the long-standing status of the United States as the leading military power in the Western Pacific.”

Photo: China’s first home-built aircraft carrier leaves Dalian in Northeast China’s Liaoning province for sea trials on May 13, 2018. [Photo/Xinhua]

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The Eroding U.S. Navy, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its two-part look at how slashed funding from Washington  and rising threats from abroad have left the United States vulnerable at sea.

Admiral William F. Moran, the Navy’s Chief of Naval Operations, informed Congress earlier this year that “Time is running out. Years of sustained deployments and constrained and uncertain funding have resulted in a readiness debt that will take years to pay down. If the slow pace of readiness recovery continues, unnecessary equipment damage, poorly trained operators at sea, and a force improperly trained and equipped to sustain itself will result. Absent sufficient funding for readiness, modernization and force structure, the Navy cannot return to full health, where it can continue to meet its mission on a sustainable basis. And even if additional resources are made available, if they continue to be provided in a way that cannot be counted on and planned for, some will be wasted.”

Earlier this month, Admiral Moran  expanded on his worrisome theme:  “The Navy has deployed, on average, about 100 ships around the world each day, collectively steaming thousands of underway days each year, despite having the smallest battle fleet since before World War I, and significantly smaller than the Navy we had immediately after 9/11 over a decade ago. 2 Although warfighting capabilities of ships have dramatically increased in the last century, the size and scope of U.S. responsibilities around the world have also increased.”

While the U.S. Navy struggles, America’s maritime adversaries grow larger and bolder. According to a study by the Brookings Institute  “Russia is, impressively, both retrofitting older vessels and procuring newer ones. And the [Russian] navy has unveiled a significant capability: Its Caspian Sea corvettes and frigates can fire cruise missiles at targets over 900 miles away. This is a previously unknown capability. To put things in perspective, the two variants of the U.S. Littoral Combat Ship, Freedom and Independence, are substantially larger at roughly 2,900 tons and 3,100 tons respectively—but they do not possess any cruise missile or similar power projection capability.”

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“has warned the Kremlin is building up its maritime arsenal. It calls on Nato to prepare for how to deal with Russian hybrid warfare at sea ‘before it is too late.’ Its study notes that “Russia could send new submarines and ships to launch undersea attacks to ‘paralyse’ Europe…”

China’s threat may exceed Russia’s, and the two nations are closely allied, and increasing their coordination through joint training exercises. In its Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2016 the Department of Defense notes that “Over the past 15 years, China’s ambitious naval modernization program has produced a more technologically advanced and flexible force. The PLAN now possesses the largest number of vessels in Asia, with more than 300 surface ships, submarines, amphibious ships, and patrol craft. China is rapidly retiring legacy combatants in favor of larger, multi-mission ships equipped with advanced anti-ship, antiair, and anti-submarine weapons and sensors. China continues its gradual shift from “near sea” defense to “far seas” protection.”…China is expanding its access to foreign ports to pre-position the necessary logistics support to regularize and sustain deployments in the “far seas,” waters as distant as the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean. In late November, China publicly confirmed its intention to build military supporting facilities in Djibouti…This Chinese initiative both reflects and amplifies China’s growing geopolitical clout, extending the reach of its influence and armed forces…”

Essentially, China has developed a modern and powerful navy with a growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. Observers of Chinese and U.S. military forces view China’s improving naval capabilities as posing a potential challenge in the Western Pacific to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain control of blue-water ocean areas in wartime—the first such challenge the U.S. Navy has faced since the end of the Cold War. More broadly, these observers view China’s naval capabilities as a key element of an emerging broader Chinese military challenge to the long-standing status of the United States as the leading military power in the Western Pacific.

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The Eroding U.S. Navy

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government takes a two-part look at how slashed funding from Washington  and rising threats from abroad have left the United States vulnerable at sea.

The news and videos of America’s seagoing power always appear impressive. But behind the photography, the U.S. Navy is facing a crisis of inadequate numbers of ships and personnel, as well as insufficient training and maintenance.

A study by the U.S. General Accounting Office reports that “Since January 2017, the Navy has suffered four significant mishaps at sea that resulted in serious damage to its ships and the loss of 17 sailors. Three of these incidents involved ships homeported in Japan. In response to these incidents, the Chief of Naval Operations ordered an operational pause for all fleets worldwide, and the Vice Chief of Naval Operations directed a comprehensive review of surface fleet operations, stating that these tragic incidents are not limited occurrences but part of a disturbing trend in mishaps involving U.S. ships.

GAO’s prior work shows that the Navy has increased deployment lengths, shortened training periods, and reduced or deferred maintenance to meet high operational demands, which has resulted in declining ship conditions and a worsening trend in overall readiness. The Navy has stated that high demand for presence has put pressure on a fleet that is stretched thin across the globe. Some of the concerns that GAO has highlighted include:

  • Degraded readiness of ships homeported overseas : Since 2006, the Navy has doubled the number of ships based overseas. Overseas basing provides additional forward presence and rapid crisis response, but GAO found in May 2015 that there were no dedicated training periods built into the operational schedules of the cruisers and destroyers based in Japan. As a result, the crews of these ships did not have all of their needed training and certifications. Based on updated data, GAO found that, as of June 2017, 37 percent of the warfare certifications for cruiser and destroyer crews based in Japan—including certifications for seamanship—had expired. This represents more than a fivefold increase in the percentage of expired warfare certifications for these ships since GAO’s May 2015 report. The Navy has made plans to revise operational schedules to provide dedicated training time for overseas-based ships, but this schedule has not yet been implemented.

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  • Crew size reductions contribute to sailor overwork and safety risks: GAO found in May 2017 that reductions to crew sizes the Navy made in the early 2000s were not analytically supported and may now be creating safety risks. The Navy has reversed some of those changes but continues to use a workweek standard that does not reflect the actual time sailors spend working and does not account for in-port workload—both of which have contributed to some sailors working over 100 hours a week.
  • Inability to complete maintenance on time: Navy recovery from persistently low readiness levels is premised on adherence to maintenance schedules. However, in May 2016, GAO found that the Navy was having difficulty completing maintenance on time. Based on updated data, GAO found that, in fiscal years 2011 through 2016, maintenance overruns on 107 of 169 surface ships (63 percent) resulted in 6,603 lost operational days (i.e., the ships were not available for training and operations).

Looking to the future, the Navy wants to grow its fleet by as much as 30 percent but continues to face challenges with manning, training, and maintaining its existing fleet. These readiness problems need to be addressed and will require the Navy to implement GAO’s recommendations—particularly in the areas of assessing the risks associated with overseas basing, reassessing sailor workload and the factors used to size ship crews, and applying sound planning and sustained management attention to its readiness rebuilding efforts. In addition, continued congressional oversight will be needed to ensure that the Navy demonstrates progress in addressing its maintenance, training, and other challenges.

Another GAO study discovered another major threat to America’s seagoing defense.  The readiness of the surge sealift and combat logistics fleets has trended downward since 2012.

Military Sealift Command ships perform a wide variety of support services and missions, including transporting military equipment and supplies in the event of a major contingency (performed by the surge sealift fleet) and replenishing fuel and provisions for U.S. Navy ships at sea (performed by the combat logistics force). An aging surge sealift fleet in which some ships are more than 50 years old, and a combat logistics force tasked with supporting more widely distributed operations (i.e., the employment of ships in dispersed formations across a wider expanse of territory), present several force structure and readiness challenges.

For example, GAO found that mission-limiting equipment casualties—incidents of degraded or out-of-service equipment—have increased over the past 5 years, and maintenance periods are running longer than planned, indicating declining materiel readiness across both fleets. The Navy has started to develop a long-term plan to address recapitalization of the aging surge sealift fleet, but this plan has not been finalized. The average age of the ships in the surge sealift fleet is nearly 40 years, and the number of surge sealift ships reaching the end of their programmed service lives over the next 10 years will reduce sealift capacity by over 25 percent. The Navy has not finalized these plans, and officials acknowledged that these efforts do not fully incorporate leading practices for capital investment planning. For example, Navy officials told us that the plan does not include a needs assessment or project prioritization comparing the costs and benefits of proposed investments to each other. Without effective capital planning to ensure the availability of surge sealift capability, the equipment and supplies needed by the Army, Marine Corps, and other forces may not arrive when needed, potentially hindering U.S. operations.

The Navy has not assessed the effects of widely distributed operations, which could affect the required number and type of combat logistics ships. The Navy released its new operational concept of more widely distributed operations—ships traveling farther distances and operating more days to support a more distributed fleet—in 2017. The Navy has not assessed the effects that implementing this concept will have on the required number and type of combat logistics ships. These effects could be exacerbated in the event that the Navy is less able to rely on in-port refueling—which has comprised about 30 percent of all refuelings over the past 3 years—placing greater demand on the combat logistics fleet. Given the fleet’s dependence on the combat logistics force, waiting until 2019 or 2020 to conduct an assessment, as planned, could result in poor investment decisions as the Navy continues to build and modernize its fleet. Furthermore, without assessing the effects of widely distributed operations on logistics force requirements and modifying its force structure plans accordingly, the Navy risks being unprepared to provide required fuel and other supplies.

The Report concludes tomorrow.

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Naval Developments Threaten U.S.

The  U.S. Navy has been reduced at the same time that Russia and China have embarked in extensive strengthening of their fleets.  There is insufficient attention being paid to how this has impacted American national security.

It is a serious omission.  In key corners of the globe, including the nation’s own coasts, aggressive powers are reshaping the global power structure in ways detrimental to western interests.

China’s naval prowess will reach its zenith in 2020, when its planned fleet of 350 ships,  the National Interest notes, will vastly exceed America’s in size. Russia has already reached that goal, notes Russian Ships Info.The U.S. Navy has 273 active ships, and Moscow has 283.

The Congressional Research Service notes that  “China is building a modern and regionally powerful navy with a limited but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. Observers of Chinese and U.S. military forces view China’s improving naval capabilities as posing a potential challenge in the Western Pacific to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain control of blue-water ocean areas in wartime—the first such challenge the U.S. Navy has faced since the end of the Cold War. More broadly, these observers view China’s naval capabilities as a key element of an emerging broader Chinese military challenge to the long-standing status of the United States as the leading military power in the Western Pacific.”

It’s not just the size of the Russian and Chinese fleets, it’s how hostile naval vessels are deployed that Washington has failed to deal with for the past eight years. Russia and China are not alone in threat escalation—Iran must be considered, as well.

The Washington Institute reported in September that “Since January 2016, surface elements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC-N) have harassed U.S. naval vessels in the Gulf thirty times, 50 percent more than during the same period last year. In each case, the Iranian vessel or vessels approached within weapons range. On at least three occasions, they closed to a distance that could make a collision more likely or could render U.S. ships nearly defenseless to a boat packed with explosive charges…Last year, the IRGC-N tallied three hundred close encounters with U.S. Navy vessels…”

Understanding War discloses that “First, Iran has reprioritized some of its local maritime exercises towards solidifying or expanding territorial claims in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Caspian Sea. Second, Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) has significantly increased its long-range deployments in support of strategic relationships with key partners. Third, at the same time that Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines are being used to support Iranian objectives logistically, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy may also be conducting similar operations. Taken as a whole, these three trends indicate Iran is modifying and expanding its maritime activities in support of strategic objectives.

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Defense One warns that “China is attempting to create a situation wherein the United States, to uphold international law, will either have to accede to their territorial claims in the South China Sea or openly resort to the use of hostile force, allowing China to publicly portray the U.S. as an imperialist aggressor state. Beijing is betting that the United States will not take this action and that power over the South China Sea and all the resources that lie beneath will pass to China, breaking American influence in the region.”

Beijing’s hostility has not been restricted to the South China Sea. In September of 2015, five of its naval vessels came within 12 miles of the U.S. coastline in Alaska. The Wall Street Journal noted that “The foray, just as President Barack Obama was visiting Alaska, threw a fresh spotlight on China’s expanding naval power and ambitions…”

The Kremlin has been the most active in directly threatening the U.S. in the western hemisphere, as well as its threatening activities in Europe.

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R., Alaska), reports the Washington Free Beacon,  has  warned “that the United States is lagging behind in the Arctic amid Russia’s push to increase its military presence in the region through a rapid buildup of ice-capable ships and infrastructure…Russia has been changing the facts on the ground in a very major way that is somewhat analogous to what’s going on in the South China Sea, where we start to talk about it, but in the meantime others are acting and all the sudden we find ourselves behind strategically…”

It’s not just Russia’s Arctic actions that are cause for concern. The Center for Security Policy reports that “Russia’s activity within the Western Hemisphere has increased since the beginning of the Obama Administration. Russian activity in the Western Hemisphere first began with the sale of military equipment to Venezuela that soon transitioned into the two nations participating in joint naval exercises…Just a year after the Russian and Venezuelan naval exercise, the U.S. spotted Russian attack submarines patrolling off the coast of the U.S. The Russian subs made it 200 miles off the East coast of the U.S., operating in international waters. Russian subs were detected operating incredibly close to U.S. data cables in 2015. While data cables near the U.S. coast commonly experience breaking or malfunctions, these cables are fixable within days. The fear from U.S. officials arose if the Russians cut a cable at extreme depths. The damages to these cables are much more difficult to find and fix, which could result in communications and internet access being down for weeks or even months.”

The naval capabilities and size of the Russian, Chinese and Iranian fleets should not be considered in isolation.  As the three nations continue to deepen their alliance, the combined size of their armed forces pose a unitary threat to the United States.

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U.S. Naval Supremacy in Pacific Ending

For a time span of approximately sixty years, the Pacific Ocean had been under the firm control of the United States, predominately due to the supremacy of its Navy.

But in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington adopted a belief that there were no great powers to challenge it.  The size of the fleet was reduced from 600 ships to 274 or less. Little attention was paid to the vast buildup on the other side of the vast Pacific, as China, buoyed by its enormous wealth, began its drive to become the largest naval power on the planet.

Under the Obama Administration, the reduced size of the American military was matched by a reluctance to employ U.S. armed strength or diplomatic muscle, as well as a reduction in funds to build for the future.

A vacuum was created, one which Beijing was all too eager to fill. A key turning point occurred when China’s navy illegally sailed into the Philippine-owned Scarborough Shoal. Despite American obligations to Manila and a subsequent World Court decision declaring the aggression unlawful, Washington failed to even lodge a diplomatic protest.

Within Washington, a sharp disagreement occurred. A majority of members of the relevant Congressional committees, joined by defense officials, began openly to worry about the danger. However, according to the Navy Times “The White House has barred Pentagon leaders from a key talking point when it comes to publicly describing the military challenges posed by China. In February, Defense Secretary Ash Carter cited the ‘return to great power of competition’ in the Asia-Pacific, ‘where China is rising.’ Similarly, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson characterized China and Russia as rivals in this “great power competition” in his maritime strategy.”

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While the military could be ordered into silence, others could be more open.  The Scout.com site notes: “…the Chinese are reportedly working on a handful of high-tech next-generation ships, weapons and naval systems….China has plans to grow its navy to 351 ships by 2020 as the Chinese continue to develop their military’s ability to strike global targets, according to a recent Congressional report.

The English-language Chinamil.com notes “…by around 2020, China will have both the largest (at 351 ships) navy in the world (by combatant, underway replenishment, and submarine ship count) and the second most capable “far seas” navy in the world. The PLA Navy will have: A well balanced fleet in terms of the full range of naval capabilities…More modern multi-mission frigates (FFG) (30-32) than any other navy;… [and] A “new far seas” navy; all warships built in 21st century.

2020 will arrive in just  few short years, but the threat to the U.S. Navy already exists. A review in the Diplomat warns that China has a whole host of options to harass American carriers in the Asia-Pacific. Even if such efforts do not deliver a mission kill against a carrier, they could “be so consumed with defending themselves that they would not be able to use significant numbers of their aircraft for defending Taiwan.” He notes that “carriers operating within about a thousand miles of China’s coast, for example, would also be subject to attack by land-based Chinese Su-30 and J-11B fighters, JH-7 supersonic fighter bombers, and H-6 bombers, all of which can be armed with anti-ship cruise missiles.” It seems that while American carriers are certainly prepared to defend themselves, the sheer amount of challenges they would face could prove fatal.”

That description, dire as it is, fails to include two facts. China already has more submarines than the U.S. Navy.  Beijing also has another extraordinary weapon unique to the Chinese arsenal: the Dong Feng-21 missile. Based on land, it could attack an aircraft carrier a thousand miles at sea.

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Russian-Chinese Alliance Threatens World Commerce

Largely unreported by the American media, Russia and China, the world’s most powerful military alliance, have developed the coordinated naval power more than sufficient to challenge not just the previously dominant position of the U.S. Navy, but the entire framework of international  commerce and freedom of navigation.

Reaction to The Hague Tribunal decision, which ruled that China’s maritime aggression is illegal, has illuminated an extraordinary threat faced not just by regional nations but by the entire world.

In response to the decision, Russia and China have ramped up their naval threats. The Sun reports that Russia and China will hold joint naval drills in September in the South China Sea.

Moscow backs Beijing’s unlawful claims, not just with words, but with the growing power of its own navy. The two oceanic superpowers have coordinated their efforts in recent years.

Last year, the two held a joint naval exercise, entitled “Joint Sea 2015 II.” The Russian news source RT  quotes military personnel from both nations calling the exercise an  “unprecedented show of military cooperation.” RT reports that it involved 22 ships, 20 aircraft, 40 armored vehicles, and 500 marines from the two countries, “including the Varyag missile cruiser, flagship of the Russian Pacific fleet; and the Shenyang destroyer, the Chinese flagship… The drills were held in Peter the Great Bay not far from the port-city of Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East, as the vessels conducted their training operations in both Russian territorial waters and neutral waters in the Sea of Japan. The joint naval exercises included anti-aircraft drills, drills to counter submarine attacks and sabotage, as well as simulations of attacks on enemy ships, while close air support featured the Varyag’s key asset – the Ka-27 strike helicopter. Russia’s flagship is also equipped with Russia’s legendary S-300 air defense system, and carries 64 interceptor missiles on board.”

The maneuvers didn’t just take place in the Pacific region.  The U.S. Naval Institute   notes that Chinese warships, including the frigates Linyi and Weifang left the Black Sea along with a Russian Navy guided missile corvette to begin the first ever round of Chinese and Russian naval exercises in the Mediterranean.

China has purchased some of Russia’s most advanced military equipment, while also developing its own naval weapons systems, some of which are unmatched anywhere, including a missile which, launched from land, can disable ships almost 1,000 miles away.
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Beijing already has a larger number of submarines than the U.S. Navy, and its overall fleet will exceed America’s by 2020.

Beijing’s growing naval power has given it the confidence and ability not just to ignore international law. Reuters  reported in June that Chinese spy ships have shadowed the U.S> aircraft Carrier USS John C. Stennis.

It’s not the first time the U.S. Navy was openly challenged by China.  In 2007, the Daily Mail reported that “American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk – a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board. By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier. According to senior NATO officials the incident caused consternation in the U.S. Navy. The Americans had no idea China’s fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication, or that it posed such a threat.One Nato figure said the effect was “as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik” – a reference to the Soviet Union’s first orbiting satellite in 1957 which marked the start of the space age.The incident, which took place in the ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan, is a major embarrassment for the Pentagon.”

Other nations are being drawn into the Russian-Chinese axis.

As Turkey, a NATO member, moves further away from its western allies, it has moved closer to China. USNI reports that “The Chinese and Turkish air forces also exercised together in 2010 in central Turkey, which is the first time Chinese units had exercised together with a NATO country. More recently, Turkey decided to acquire a new air defense system from China, causing concerns in both Washington and in allied capitals in Europe about the interoperability with NATO and U.S. air and missile defense networks.”

Iran has purchased advanced Russian equipment, including anti-aircraft missiles, and continues its regular threatening actions against U.S. naval forces in its region.

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The Myth of China’s Peaceful Rise

The hope that China would peacefully rise to great power status continues to be shattered.

Rather than becoming a nation that uses its enormous military and economic might to benefit both its own citizenry and the international community, Beijing is following a pattern of aggression.  To those mindful of history, its actions are highly reminiscent of Imperial Japan’s belligerent actions that led to World War II in the Pacific.

A five member panel at The Tribunal of the Permanent Court at The Hague, in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas has ruled in favor of the Philippines in its dispute with China. China claims almost all of the South China Sea, and has deployed its military to enforce its will.

Beijing bases its claim on its internationally unrecognized “Nine Dash Line” demarcation.  The Tribunal concluded that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the ‘Nine-dash line’.

The specific arbitration before the Hague concerned the role of historic rights and the source of maritime entitlements in the South China Sea, the status of certain maritime features and the maritime entitlements they are capable of generating, and the lawfulness of certain actions by China that were alleged by the Philippines to violate the Convention.

Having found that certain areas are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, the Tribunal found that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone by (a) interfering with Philippine fishing and petroleum exploration, (b) constructing artificial islands and (c) failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing in the zone. …The Tribunal further held that Chinese law enforcement vessels had unlawfully created a serious risk of collision when they physically obstructed Philippine vessels.

The Tribunal also considered the effect on the marine environment of China’s recent large-scale land reclamation and construction of artificial islands at seven features in the Spratly Islands and found that China had caused severe harm to the coral reef environment and violated its obligation to preserve and protect fragile ecosystems and the habitat of depleted, threatened, or endangered species. The Tribunal also found that Chinese authorities were aware that Chinese fishermen have harvested endangered sea turtles, coral, and giant clams on a substantial scale in the South China Sea (using methods that inflict severe damage on the coral reef environment) and had not fulfilled their obligations to stop such activities.

As it had previously announced, China completely rejected the ruling. Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, made the following remarks in response to today’s ruling on the South China Sea arbitration case:

“Today’s ruling is clear, unambiguous, and reinforces the international order.  The United States should act to give this ruling weight by continuing our free navigation of the seas with our allies and partners in the region, maintaining a robust and ready naval presence in the area, and demonstrating that we are a reliable ally to countries in the region.” 

 In testimony  before the House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia last week, Abraham Denmark, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, noted:

“The South China Sea is an area of immense economic and strategic importance. For centuries, it has been a major crossroads of international trade and commerce that connected cultures and economies from East Africa and the Middle East, through South and Southeast Asia, to Japan and the Korean peninsula in Northeast Asia. For decades, it has been a critical operational area for the U.S. military and central to our strategy to strengthen a principled order that enables stability and prosperity across the region… Conflicting maritime claims have exacerbated long-simmering territorial disputes and threaten to disrupt the remarkable stability and economic gains the region has enjoyed for decades.

“China, in particular, has undertaken a series of initiatives that set it apart from all other claimants…“Examples of concerning Chinese behavior in the past few years include:

  •  Between December 2013 and October 2015, China reclaimed approximately 3,200 acres of land in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea—a development we detailed in our Annual Report to Congress on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2016. For context, over the same time period, other claimants reclaimed approximately 50 acres.
  • China has used low-intensity coercion to enhance its presence and control in disputed areas of the South China Sea. China continues to employ China Coast Guard and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy ships to implement its claims by maintaining a near-continuous presence in disputed areas in an attempt to demonstrate some form of continuous administration. These efforts have included issuing fishing regulations that 3 covered disputed areas, blocking access of non-Chinese registered fishing vessels to disputed areas, and issuing warnings to civilian and military aircraft to depart the area while they were operating in international airspace.
  • China has continued to build harbors, communications and surveillance systems, logistical facilities, and three military-grade airfields on many of the features it occupies. In the past year, China also has deployed radar systems, anti-ship cruise missiles, surface to-air missiles, and has rotated fighter jets through features it claims in the South China Sea.

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“Furthermore, the construction of hangars, anti-aircraft guns, and fuel and water underground storage facilities would support extended deployments of multiple aircraft and ships. And finally, in April, China’s most senior military officer led a delegation on a tour of China’s occupied features in the Spratly Islands to inspect the construction and visit the soldiers stationed on each feature. …Once completed and outfitted, these facilities will greatly improve China’s capabilities to enforce its maritime and territorial claims, and project power further from China’s shores.”

Beijing’s rapid and extraordinary naval development has given the nation a submarine fleet already larger than the U.S. Navy’s, and its fleet will be larger than America’s within four years.

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Tension Rising Between China and Japan

The Japan Times has reported that a Chinese spy ship has entered Japan’s territorial waters for only the second time since the end of the Second World War. The reconnaissance vessel crossed into Japan’s waters near Kuchinoerabu Island on June 15.

Japanese aircraft ordered the vessel to move outside of the nation’s territorial waters, 12 nautical miles off the coastline, and the ship complied.

The incident is considered even more serious because it occurs within a week after Beijing sent a frigate into the contiguous zone adjacent to Japan’s territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands, which both China and Japan have claimed..

In 2004, a Chinese submarine was discovered within Japan’s territorial waters near Ishigaki Island, prompting Tokyo to hike naval security.

It’s believed that the latest incursion is due to China’s practice of shadowing other naval vessels conducting maneuvers in international waters. Two Indian ships were the presumptive targets. Beijing’s navy has also shadowed the U.S. aircraft carrier John C. Stennis.

According to the Japan Times, Kenji Kanasugi, director-general of the Foreign Ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, has lodged a protest against China, stating “concerns about the overall activities of the Chinese military, which have been escalating tensions…”  China’s ambassador was summoned to receive Tokyo’s condemnation of the incursion.

China has also moved aggressively against American surveillance aircraft over international waters.

Beijing has ratchet up tensions in anticipation of a ruling being handed down by the Hague international arbitration court concerning China’s incursion into Philippine waters.

At the April G7 meeting in Hiroshima,  the attending foreign ministers, concerned over Beijing’s belligerence and its construction of islands for military use,  noted that “Free, open and stable seas are a cornerstone for peace, stability and prosperity of the international community. We reaffirm the importance of maintaining a maritime order based upon the universally recognized principles of international law… We reiterate our commitment to the freedoms of navigation and overflight and other internationally lawful uses of the high seas and the exclusive economic zones as well as to the related rights and freedoms in other maritime zones, including the rights of innocent passage, transit passage and archipelagic sea lanes passage consistent with international law. We call on all states to pursue the peaceful management and settlement of maritime disputes in good faith and in accordance with international law, including through applicable internationally recognized legal dispute settlement mechanisms, including arbitration, recognizing that the use of such mechanisms is consistent with the maintenance and enhancement of the international order based upon the rule of law… We are concerned about the situation in the East and South China Seas, and emphasize the fundamental importance of peaceful management and settlement of disputes. We express our strong opposition to any intimidating, coercive or provocative unilateral actions that could alter the status quo and increase tensions, and urge all states to refrain from such actions as land reclamations including large scale ones, building of outposts, as well as their use for military purposes and to act in accordance with international law including the principles of freedoms of navigation and overflight.”

Japan has been on edge lately, due both to China’s aggressive actions and the dramatic increase in military strength both from that nation and North Korea.  According to Tokyo’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

“Japan’s security environment is becoming even severer with the dramatic shift in the global power balance, the emergence of new threats such as terrorism and cyber attacks, and the severe security environment in the Asia-Pacific region. Such threats easily cross national borders.”

Several main concerns were stressed, including

  • “Despite the concentration of nations that possess large-scale military capability including nuclear-weapons states, regional cooperation frameworks on security are not sufficiently institutionalized.
  • North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs as well as its provocative behavior.
  • China’s advancement of its military capacity without transparency, and its further activities in the sea and air space.”

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China’s naval power has escalated to an extraordinary degree. It currently has more submarines than the U.S., and overall it will have a larger navy than the U.S. within four years. Beijing has also developed land-based missiles that can disable ships 900 miles away.

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India’s vital new role

India may play an increasingly vital role in countering China’s push to dominate key portions of the Indian Ocean, a move encouraged by the United States.

Four critical waterways, including the Suez Canal, the Bab el Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca tie into the Indian Ocean. According to the Asia Times, Zhang Wei, researcher of the PLA Navy Academic Institute, said “More Chinese ships are crossing the Indian Ocean as it has become a major pipeline for trade for China.”

Beijing has used its rapidly growing naval power to assert major claims to Pacific region waterways. It alleges that it owns four-fifths of the South China Sea, a vital area through which about 70% of the world’s maritime commerce passes. It powerful navy, which will become the world’s largest by 2020, gives it the firepower to back the claim.

Earlier this year, The White House announced “India is indispensable to promoting peace, prosperity and stability…We call on all parties to avoid the threat or use of force and pursue resolution of territorial and maritime disputes through all peaceful means, in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea…Over the next five years, we will strengthen our regional dialogues, invest in making trilateral consultations with third countries in the region more robust, deepen regional integration, strengthen regional forums, explore additional multilateral opportunities for engagement, and pursue areas where we can build capacity in the region that bolster long-term peace and prosperity for all.”

Admiral Harris, quoted in India Strategic while in New Delhi to discuss Indo-US naval cooperation with India’s Naval Chief Admiral Dhowan, observed that cooperation between India, US and other major powers like Japan and Australia was imperative for peace and stability in the Asia Pacific. He noted that India plays a pivotal role in the U.S. naval strategy.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has provided a more activist Indian outlook on regional defense issues. Author C. Raja Mohan notes that Modi believes “India was punching below its weight and we (India) should now “improve our weight and punch proportionately.”
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Other nations have encouraged India to step up its defense activities.  Bloomberg News  reports that Singapore “wants India to play a bigger role in the South China Sea as China hastens land reclamation in the disputed waters that carry some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes…       [Singapore Minister For Defense Ng Eng Hen] stated in March that “We hope that their presence and participation will increase — that really adds up to engagement and confidence building and mutual understanding,” Ng said, referring to Asia’s third-biggest economy. “India is a big country and it’s an influential country.”

“India’s involvement in the region could give Southeast Asian nations a further buffer against China as that country seeks to enforce its claims to the majority of the South China Sea and push back against decades of U.S. military dominance in the Pacific. China is also looking to build a maritime trade route linking a network of ports through the Indian Ocean with Europe via the Suez Canal, a prospect that has unnerved India.”

The Philippines, which has endured China’s incursion into its Exclusive Economic Zone, and Vietnam both encourage an enhanced role for India. Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay is also a potential site for foreign naval vessels, particularly those of the United States, to base ships to discourage China’s adventurism. Currently, Russian naval vessels dock there.

According to the National Interest  “India now appears to be picking up the pace. Under the Modi government, New Delhi has turned the ‘Look East Policy’ into the ‘Act East Policy’, made direct comments on the need to resolve the [South China Sea dispute] signed a joint strategic vision with the U.S. for the Asia–Pacific and the Indian Ocean region and is in talks with key regional countries to increase security collaboration, especially in the maritime domain.”

The military rating source Global Firepower indicates that India has a powerful navy, consisting of 202 ships, including two aircraft carriers, 15 frigates, 9 destroyers, 25 corvettes, 15 submarines, 46 coastal defense craft, and 7 mine warfare vessels.

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The curious case of Ceuta

As Russian forces expand their presence in Syria, where they currently possess a major naval base in Tartus, another site has become an asset to Moscow’s growing sea power.

Ceuta, a city of only seven square miles, occupies a strategic peninsula off the Moroccan coast at the east end of the Strait of Gibraltar. Control was transferred from Arab hands to Portugal in 1415, and then to Spain in 1580.

As part of Spain, the city is in NATO territory.  However, it is regularly hosting Russian naval vessels. According to the authoritative Jamestown Foundation “On August 5, 2015, four Russian warships—the missile cruiser Moskva, the escort ship Pytlivy, the large sea tanker Ivan Bubnovand Shakhtyor, a rescue tug—docked at the Mediterranean port of Ceuta, a Spanish exclave in North Africa, claimed by Morocco, and located just south of Gibraltar, across the Strait… This port visit was followed, on August 26, by the arrival of the diesel-electric submarine Novorossiysk and, one day later, an SB-36-class tugboat … This marks the 12th such port visit this year; 13 took place over all of 2014. Russian warships bunker and take water and other supplies at Ceuta, while their crews enjoy shore leave.”

This is not a brand-new development.  Common Sense  notes that Russian naval vessels “have been regularly visiting Ceuta since 2010 at a relatively constant rate of 10 to 15 port calls per year.”

Some have speculated  that Spain’s motives may include the financial boost provided by the visits, and a slap at the United Kingdom, which counts nearby Gibraltar as an overseas territory.

The Heritage Foundation has sharply criticized Spain’s dalliance with Russia’s navy. “Spain possesses two sovereign enclaves called Ceuta and Melilla that border Morocco. They are both sizable cities, with populations of 73,000 and 79,000, respectively. They are legally part of Spain, and they are the only two European Union (EU) cities located in mainland Africa. They are also part of the Schengen Agreement and the eurozone. The Russian navy has been using their port facilities for years.
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“On April 28, during the same week that the EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, Spain played host to the Russian destroyer Vice Admiral Kulakov at Ceuta. During its stay, the destroyer took on nearly 740 tons of fuel and 100 tons of water…Spain’s policy of allowing the Russian navy to use Ceuta in North Africa is also hypocritical in relation to its reluctance to allow visits by NATO ships to or from the British Overseas Territory of Gibraltar directly to or from Spanish ports. Therefore, under certain circumstances Spain would rather have a Russian ship visit a Spanish port than a NATO ship. In addition, Spanish authorities routinely deny any request by military aircraft from NATO members that arrives or departs the Gibraltar airfield and overflies or lands in Spain.”

The U.S. Naval Institute reports that “…the Russian Navy is pivoting back into the same European waters it became very familiar with during the Cold War. Russia apparently is deploying, and intends to continue to deploy, its navy into the vacuum created by the United States’ absence in the Mediterranean Sea.”

Russia is also involving its ally China in its assertion of naval power in the Mediterranean.  During May, it conducted joint maneuvers with Chinese naval vessels. It has also engaged in similar joint maneuvers with Beijing’s naval forces in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The Kremlin is flexing its new, muscular armed forces across the world, including Latin America, where it has returned to Cold War era facilities.  As noted in the Daily Signal  “Russian military spending has seen dramatic increases. As of 2013, its military budget had “more than doubled over the last decade. Through the first quarter of 2015, defense spending ‘was more than double what the government had originally budgeted, at over 9 percent of the quarterly GDP.’ Conversely, U.S. national defense spending as percent of GDP dropped to an estimated 3.3 percent in 2015 after reaching a high of 4.7 percent in 2010, according to the Office of Management and Budget… one thing remains certain: Russia is repositioning its naval assets with NATO in mind.”