Tag: Chinese-American economic relations

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its three-part examination of China’s trade relations with both the United States and North Korea.

China’s economic practices are not merely inappropriate from a trade perspective; they are also national security risks, and are quietly assisting the North Koreans.  The FBI reported in June that “The United States has filed a complaint to civilly forfeit $1,902,976 from Mingzheng International Trading Limited (Mingzheng), a company based in Shenyang, China. The complaint alleges that Mingzheng is a front company that was created to launder United States dollars on behalf of sanctioned North Korean entities. According to the complaint, Mingzheng conspired to evade U.S. economic sanctions by facilitating prohibited U.S. dollar transactions through the United States on behalf of the Foreign Trade Bank, a sanctioned entity in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and to launder the proceeds of that conduct through U.S. financial institutions.

Indeed, China has found numerous avenues to assist North Korea.  Foreign Policy reveals that an “unpublished U.N. report obtained by Foreign Policy that documents sophisticated North Korean efforts to evade sanctions shows that China has proved a fickle partner at best in Washington’s effort to stymie Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions…China, despite its apparent cooperation of late with international efforts to sanction North Korea, has instead served as Pyongyang’s economic lifeline, purchasing the vast majority of its coal, gold, and iron ore and serving as the primary hub for illicit trade that undermines a raft of U.N. sanctions that China nominally supports, the report’s findings suggest.”

Ralph Jennings, writing in Forbes in 2016, reported “The State Department may look harder at Chinese companies in case they are equipping North Korea’s nuclear development, sanctions coordinator Daniel Fried told the foreign affairs subcommittee … His comment followed an announcement… that four Chinese nationals and Chinese industrial equipment wholesaler Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Co. faced their own sanctions and money laundering charges over suspected military support for North Korea via U.S. financial institutions…But a broader probe would just turn up just one thing for sure: China is North Korea’s BFF…”
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The 2016 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission emphasizes that Beijing is using its wealth to “challenge the United States and intimidate China’s neighbors. For example, China’s ability to conduct conventional strikes against U.S. regional facilities recently reached an inflection point with the fielding of new ballistic missiles capable of reaching Guam. The Chinese military’s pursuit of force projection and expeditionary capabilities, while enabling it to provide public goods in the form of antipiracy, peacekeeping, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations, will also strengthen China’s traditional warfighting capabilities against its weaker neighbors, many of whom are U.S. allies or partners. These developments are underpinned by advancements in China’s naval, air force, cyber, and space capabilities. In response to conflicting claims in the East and South China seas, China has increased its military deployments there. Moreover, China’s expanding intelligence collection capabilities, including in the cyber realm, have enabled many infiltrations of U.S. national security entities. The information China has extracted could strengthen its hand in a conflict with the United States.

An insiders‘ view of Chinese thinking on the North Korean issue reveals startling facts.  Rather than concentrating on how to reduce Pyongyang’s belligerence,  notes Rowan Callick in The Australian, “A commentary on the People’s Liberation Army website has urged China to target with ­strategic weapons the base where South Korea is deploying the US Terminal High Altitude Area ­Defence system to help defend it against North Korea.”

China’s actions in the economic, foreign policy, and military realms suggest China’s leaders have decided the time has come for China to leave behind its long-held strategy, espoused by Deng Xiaoping, of “hide your strength, bide your time.” China is showing itself to the world now, and the outcome is not what many had hoped for 15 years ago when the country was welcomed into the WTO and the global economic system.

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its three-part examination of China’s trade relations with both the United States and North Korea.

The Financial Times reports that “Over the past decade, the goods and services China has provided for the US increased by 98 per cent and 132 per cent respectively.”  Reflecting the political viewpoint of many of Washington’s elected officials, the Financial Times emphasizes the importance of the relationship. “China has helped the US maintain its economic and financial stability over more than a decade of war and overspending.”

The statistics indicate that China has more to lose in an all-out trade stoppage. In 2015, the U.S. trade deficit with China was $365.7 billion, the highest on record; in the first eight months of 2016, the deficit was $225 billion. The cumulative U.S. trade deficit with China in the 15 years since it joined the World Trade Organization is a staggering $3.5 trillion. As it protects its domestic industry from foreign competition, China continues to dump its massive overcapacity in U.S. and other global markets, materially damaging U.S. industries, including steel.

There is more than enough justification, even outside of the North Korean dilemma, to justify tough action on China’s aggressive trade practices. The 2016 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission notes that “China continues to violate the spirit and the letter of its international obligations by pursuing import substitution policies, imposing forced technology transfers, engaging in cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, and obstructing the free flow of information and commerce. China is also becoming a less welcoming market for foreign investors, with a host of restrictions and anticompetitive laws that proscribe foreign participation in broad swathes of the economy and promote domestic companies. At the same time, the extensive subsidization of and policy support for favored companies and sectors puts international competitors wishing to export to China at a distinct disadvantage. It has become all too apparent that the CCP has no intention of opening up what it considers key sectors of its economy to significant U.S. or foreign competition and control…

“China’s willingness to reshape the economic, geopolitical, and security order to accommodate its interests are of great concern as China’s global influence grows. This influence has been manifesting most recently with China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative aimed at connecting China with great portions of the rest of the world via a wide range of investments and infrastructure projects. Last year, the Commission tracked the initiative’s impact in Central Asia. This year, as part of our examination of China’s rise and South Asia, we considered its impact on some of the countries in that region. China’s emergence as a major player in South Asia is affecting the geopolitics of the region, and is causing the region’s traditional major power, India, to grow increasingly concerned about the prospect of Chinese encirclement.
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Bloomberg reports that “China’s Worst Trade Abuses Are Hidden… China has also become adept in using non-tariff barriers to prop up favored companies. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing recently identified a raft of such measures China was using to protect manufacturers, including subsidizing local businesses and forcing foreign firms to turn over technology to Chinese partners… China failing to disclose measures that may violate WTO requirements, it is refusing to even discuss them.

“According to the American Chamber of Commerce in China’s 2016 Business Climate Survey, more than three-fourths of surveyed U.S. companies reported they felt foreign businesses are less welcome in China than in years past. Meanwhile, Chinese investment in the United States is growing rapidly, driven by the Chinese government’s “going out” strategy, a generally more open policy environment for outbound investment, and capital flight. The increased acquisition of U.S. assets by Chinese companies, which often receive state funding, has led to growing concern over the economic and national security implications of such acquisitions.

“In 2015, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China increased by 6.5 percent year-on-year to $367.2 billion, a new record. Over the same period, the U.S. deficit with China in advanced technology products reached $120.7 billion, a decrease of $3 billion from 2014. In the first eight months of 2016, the U.S. goods deficit with China fell 5.7 percent year-on-year to $225.2 billion due to weaker imports. The United States has a substantial but much smaller trade surplus with China in services: in 2015, the U.S. trade surplus in services with China totaled $29.5 billion. China continues to stall on liberalizing key sectors in which the United States is competitive globally, such as services…

The Report concludes tomorrow.

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents a three-part examination of China’s trade relations with both the United States and North Korea.

U.S. policy makers need to take an intensive look at the entire framework of Chinese-American economic relations.  This is an urgent issue, since Beijing’s continued support of North Korea is the linchpin allowing Kim Jong-un to develop his nuclear arsenal, and the threat of trade restrictions may be the only way to change that paradigm.

During his presidential campaign, President Trump sharply criticized the imbalance in U.S.-China trade, and Beijing’s unfair economic practices. At the time, he proposed significant tariffs. Now, in the wake of North Korea’s threats of nuclear attack, President Trump has gained some concessions from China, a feat his predecessors failed at.  But are they sufficient, and will Beijing live up to its word?  Unfortunately, based on precedent, the outlook must be less than optimistic.

According to the 2016 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission China’s actions supporting North Korea are similar to its general foreign relations “…hopes that China would stick to its path of “peaceful development” and become a global power that upholds and strengthens the rules-based liberal world order have not been met. China’s leaders have taken advantage of the existing international order when convenient and sought to rewrite the rules when it benefits them. This was starkly illustrated this year by an international tribunal’s ruling that many of China’s activities in the South China Sea are unlawful—and by China’s obstinate rejection of the proceedings. On North Korea, although China signed on to the UN Security Council’s strictest sanctions on Pyongyang to date, there are already indications that China does not intend to enforce them in a way that might deter Kim Jong-un from his increasingly dangerous behavior, illustrated by two nuclear tests and a dozen ballistic missile tests in 2016 alone. Closer to home, China has been employing new levers of coercion in Taiwan and Hong Kong in ways that infringe upon longstanding practices and agreements, and which threaten to erode autonomy and democratic values in both places.”

The issue may be confronted soon.  According to the U.S. Commerce Department,  on September 24, U.S. Commerce  Secretary Wilbur Ross and Ambassador Terry Branstad met separately with Premier Li Keqiang, Vice Premier Wang Yang, Minister Miao Wei, NDRC Chairman He Lifeng, and Economy and Finance Director Liu He. The Secretary also met with Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan.
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The meetings were in anticipation of President Trump’s planned visit to Asia later this which is expected to concentrate on, in addition to the North Korean crisis, a range of trade issues including the need to rebalance bilateral trade and investment relations, protect intellectual property, lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and guarantee fair and reciprocal treatment for U.S. firms. According to the Commerce Department, “Ross is seeking to reduce the trade deficit through increased exports of high-value U.S. goods and services to China and improved market access for U.S. firms.” However, the possibility of stringent trade restrictions in reaction to China’s continued support for North Korea will certainly be a factor.

China’s economic relations with America has been a contentious issue since at least since the 1990’s.  President Bill Clinton greatly assisted Beijing’s rise to financial prowess both through his authorization of the sale of Cray super computers, and through his signing of legislation that freed Beijing from having to get yearly recertification of its trade status, as well as guaranteeing Chinese the low-tariff access to the U.S. market.

Investopedia notes that “…the trade balance of the U.S. vis-à-vis China is negative, and this deficit is financed partly by the capital flow from China. That is to say, China is also the largest creditor of the U.S. holding the largest part of the US Treasury securities with an amount of $1,270.3 billion as of May 2015. This is about one-fifth of the total US treasury securities ($6134.8 billion as of May 2015) outstanding.” In essence, in return for lending funds to federal elected officials who may use them to finance popular programs, those politicians have not taken action against Beijing’s unfair economic practices.

The Report continues tomorrow.