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China’s Growing Power Projection

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has issued its annual report to Congress. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government will periodically present summaries of their work.

China has made changes to its military strategy, equipment, and  global posture over the last two decades that now enable it to project  power at greater distances from its shores. Under the leadership of  General Secretary Xi, the PLA has begun the process of transforming  itself into a “world-class military” to support his ambitions for national  rejuvenation. China’s strategic requirements relating to the projection  of military power are defending sovereign territory as the CCP defines  it; delaying or denying potential threats or intervention in a regional  conflict or sovereignty dispute by other powers, such as the United  States; and protecting China’s overseas economic interests and sea  lines of communication. PLA strategists argue that a world-class  military must possess a blue-water navy capable of conducting  expeditionary operations with air and ground forces on faraway  continents. Authoritative sources suggest Chinese leaders aspire to  project force and be capable of fighting limited wars around the globe  by the middle of the century. 

Today, the PLA is vigorously updating its equipment, training, and  organization in ways that increase the capacity and range of its power  projection capabilities. The force’s efforts focus on rectifying shortfalls  in six operational areas: amphibious assault, naval power projection,  air power projection and delivery, long-range precision strike, global  logistics, and global command and control. Two notable dimensions  of the PLA’s capability-building efforts are its incorporation of cyber  and space technologies for power projection and its reliance on civilian  entities for global logistics and force sustainment. China’s base in  Djibouti and its expanding access to civilian ports and airfields around  the world also help support the PLA’s global operations. 

China’s power projection capabilities are currently most developed in  East and Southeast Asia, where its activities threaten the security of  the United States and its allies and partners, but these capabilities  diminish as distance from the region increases. To prepare the  groundwork for a future network of overseas military bases and dual 

use logistics facilities, the PLA uses traditional military diplomacy  and humanitarian activities to burnish its image and sway host nation  leaders. China’s overseas access model also relies on civilian ports  operated or majority owned by Chinese SOEs, which may become  dual-use logistics facilities. The PLA’s power projection capabilities  have already had significant ramifications for the U.S. security  architecture in East Asia and could eventually affect the United States’  ability to defend its interests across the globe. 

Key Findings 

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▶ Recent advances in equipment, organization, and logistics have  significantly improved the PLA’s ability to project power and deploy  expeditionary forces far from China’s shores. A concurrent evolution  in military strategy requires the force to become capable of operating  anywhere around the globe and of contesting the U.S. military if  called upon to do so. Chinese leaders have vigorously pushed the  PLA to develop power projection and expeditionary capabilities over  the last 20 years. 

▶ China’s power projection capabilities are developing at a brisk and  consistent pace, reflecting the civilian leadership’s determination  to transform the PLA into a global expeditionary force in a matter  of decades. In the short term (next five years), the PLA will focus  on consolidating the capabilities that would enable it to conduct  large-scale military operations around its maritime periphery. In the  medium term (next 10–15 years), the PLA aims to be capable of  fighting a limited war overseas to protect its interests in countries  participating in the BRI. By mid-century, the PLA aims to be capable  of rapidly deploying forces anywhere in the world. 

▶ China’s basing model includes military facilities operated exclusively  by the PLA as well as civilian ports operated or majority-owned  by Chinese firms, which may become dual-use logistics facilities.  Chinese firms partially own or operate nearly 100 ports globally,  more than half of which involve a Chinese SOE. 

▶ Despite the PLA’s progress in building expeditionary capabilities,  it continues to face a number of challenges in projecting power.  These challenges grow more pronounced the farther away the PLA  operates from China’s immediate periphery and include inadequate  airlift, sealift, at-sea replenishment, and in-air refueling capabilities. 

▶ China’s power projection capabilities are robust in East and Southeast  Asia, where it is building military bases (see Figure 11). In the Indian  Ocean, the PLA deploys naval task forces that regularly operate for  seven to eight months as far away as Africa’s eastern seaboard (see  Figure 10). While the PLA’s power projection capabilities diminish  the farther it operates from China, it is beginning to develop the  ability to project power in the South Atlantic, where it occasionally  conducts naval operations, makes port calls, and carries out  military exercises with local partners. In Latin America and the  Caribbean, where PLA power projection capabilities are weakest,  the force is cultivating political influence and greater access to the  region that will complement the satellite tracking station it already  maintains in Argentina.

Photo: The frigate Enshi (Hull 627), Yongzhou (Hull 628), Bazhong (Hull 625), and Wuzhou (Hull 626) steam in formation during a 9-day maritime training exercise in waters of the South China Sea in late November, 2020. They are attached to a frigate flotilla of the navy under the PLA Southern Theater Command. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Zhang Bin)