Perhaps it is a problem considered too unpleasant to report, but the reality of America losing its crucially required lead in sea power is one of the most important, and under-reported, news stories of our time.
While both American and its NATO partners have engaged in significant underfunding of their fleets, Russia and China have moved forcefully to upgrade their equivalents in both quantity and quality. As firm allies the two are rapidly moving into a position to dominate the oceans.
As the New York Analysis has previously reported China already has more submarines than the U.S., and its navy will be larger than America’s within four years.
A National Interest review adds these factors: “A not-so-fun fact you may not know: China has the world’s largest collection of sea mines. Just how many you ask? Estimates vary; however, some see Beijing holding 80,000-100,000 sea mines.” China also the ability to unleash vast amounts of missiles at American ships, whose ability to deter that attack would be overwhelmed both by the sheer numbers of the weapons launched, as well as by the fact that Beijing’s use of anti-satellite weapons would leave the U.S incapable of sensing and preparing for attacks.
China is now developing the infrastructure to support its global maritime ambitions. In addition to engaging in joint maneuvers with Moscow in the Mediterranean, building offshore facilities in the South China Sea, and developing allegedly civilian bases on both sides of the Panama Canal, it is now breaking ground on a naval base in Africa. According to an NPR report “The location is Djibouti, on the coast of Africa, at the mouth of the Red Sea, looking across at the Arabian Peninsula. – in other words, a very strategic location.
China’s axis partner Moscow has been diligent and ambitious in its naval efforts as well, both in returning to its cold war base in Cuba, spending more—a lot more—on its navy, and in developing cutting-edge vessels.
The Sputnik News service reports that “Russia’s Severnoye Design Bureau has started working on the Project 23560 Leader-class destroyer that will combine the features of a destroyer, large antisubmarine warship and guided missile cruiser. The ship will most likely be nuclear powered. It will be capable of spending up to 90 days offshore without additional refueling or support.”
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Moscow has asserted its power below the waves. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals that “Russia is expanding its undersea operations as part of a broader strategy of coercion aimed at its neighbors, NATO, and the United States. Russia has a long history of emphasizing its maritime capabilities for the purpose of strategic signaling, including the use of targeted provocations. Suspected territorial incursions in the Baltic Sea and provocative patrols in the North Atlantic have caused alarm among NATO and partner nations, in part because they have underscored the extent to which NATO and regional partner antisubmarine warfare (ASW) capabilities have atrophied since the end of the Cold War. … Moscow has demonstrated an unwavering commitment to the development and maintenance of its submarine-based strategic deterrent and has emphasized nonnuclear submarine capabilities, certain surface warfare capabilities, and long-range antiship missiles over carrier battle groups… In Northern Europe, the Russian Navy’s use of submarines to signal presence, reach, and power achieves an effect that is disproportionate to the resources committed. NATO and partner nations do not currently possess the ability to quickly counter the Russian undersea challenge in much of the North Atlantic and Baltic Sea.”
The United States Naval Institute outlines how, since 2008, Russia has asserted itself at sea:
“Russia’s two showcase ships, the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsovand nuclear-powered cruiser Pyotr Veliki ( Peter the Great ), deployed to the Mediterranean and Caribbean in flamboyant fashion, operating with former Cold War allies and adversaries alike. Russian naval aviation began flying patrols in the Norwegian Sea and off Alaska with regularity. In effect, Moscow was announcing that the Russian navy was back. … The most publicized project is the development of the new Borey-class nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN), planned to initiate eight hulls by 2017. The class leader, the Yuri Dolgorukiy , was commissioned in 2009 in St. Petersburg, following 25 years of sporadic construction, but follow-on building is adhering closely to original schedule. …The Yasen class of up to ten nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines (SSGNs) is led by the Severodvinsk , which was commissioned in 2010 after a 16-year building process. ..Surface-combatant construction is following the same trend. The 2007 launching of the Steregushchiy , a 2,100-ton corvette touted for her low-observable design along with a high degree of automation and combat-systems integration, signaled Russia’s return to developing its own surface-warfare fleet. …The Russian icebreaker inventory is a special case, dwarfing the rest of the world’s fleets. Her six nuclear icebreakers (four oceanic, two coastal) are designed to maintain the Northern Sea Route for commercial as well as military purposes. The aging Russian fleet will be augmented by a third-generation nuclear-powered vessel, capable of operating near the coast as well in the deep waters of the Arctic Ocean. “
While not making headlines in America, Europe has taken notice. An article in the British newspaper, The Sun, recently worried that “Vladimir Putin is assembling a secret fleet of super submarines which could topple NATO and plunge the world into war. A report by naval experts warns that Russia already has a small but sophisticated army of subs which are capable of launching missile strikes across the globe…The deadly group of stealthy underwater weapons are currently patrolling the world and have already reportedly breached UK waters having approached the Royal Navy’s base in Faslane, Scotland. Russia is stepping up its secret submarine programme to ‘Cold War’ levels and experts warn NATO members “no longer” have the defences to stop the aquatic death machines. Andrew Metrick, who co-wrote the report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said: ‘Russia operates a small number of very small, nuclear powered submarines that are capable of diving in excess of several thousand meters.”
What has been America’s reaction to this growing and very authentic threat?
As noted recently by Randy Forbes, the chair of Congress’s Subcommittee on Sea power, America’s 30-year shipbuilding plan forecasts a reduction in undersea force structure from 52 attack submarines today to 41 in the late 2020s, as well as the retirement without replacement of our 4 SSGN guided missile submarines and roughly 60 percent of our undersea payload capacity. Forbes notes that “submarines are already in short supply. A few months ago, Admiral Harris testified that the Navy could meet only 62% of his demand for attack submarines. More recently, I have received data from the Navy showing that overall in FY17 we will be able to fulfill only 42 percent of our combatant commanders’ global demand for submarines. I fear this shortfall will only grow more acute as our SSN force structure shrinks and the undersea domain continues to grow in importance…”
Forbes noted that Congress seeks to prevent the Obama Administration from inactivating half of the Navy’s cruisers and deactivating one of ten carrier air wings. The U.S. navy has already been reduced from a high of 600 ships to approximately 274.