Tag: China’s military power

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China’s Hidden Power

While all eyes may be trained on China due to the Covid-19 virus, foreign analysts still struggle to sort out what they actually know about the country and how its military operates. In contrast, western democracies are vastly more transparent about their military budgets and overall government spending. Beijing presents a very different story of under-reporting and under-the-table tactics designed to avoid close scrutiny by other nations. Before it opened to the West, intelligence analysts in the US often were left guessing who in the Chinese leadership was in favor and who was out. There was little, solid quantitative analysis available then or now. For many years the intelligence community resorted to simply counting the number of times a leader’s name, such as Mao Zedong, was mentioned in a major speech. Analysts believed less mentions inferred an ongoing internal leadership struggle. 

While Chinese society is more open today than during the Cultural Revolution, democratic governments still do not have a good level of certainty about how much the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) spends on the country’s military or related activities. Since 2000 the CCP, which funds the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has invested heavily in its modernization with the goal of overtaking the west within a few decades. Long-term thinking is one of China’s cultural strengths. 

American military planners traditionally could count on being three-to-four generations of technology ahead of China, which in itself was a strategic advantage. Today that gap has disappeared. For the last two decades the CCP has annually increased its military budget by 13.54%, according to a There are different generic line viagra causes of joint pain for example as; steroid drug withdrawal, torn ACL, sacroiliac joint dysfunction, SAPHO syndrome, sickle cell anemia, torn meniscus, knee injury, dengue fever, arthritis, aseptic necrosis, bursitis, fibromyalgia, lliotibial band syndrome and elbow pain. There are also purchase levitra generic versions available in the market or through online pharmacies that are being used to treat impotence. Liu has suffered from prostatitis for many find over here now on line viagra years. Safed Musli : The appalachianmagazine.com purchase levitra perfect Sex Stimulator and aphrodisiac as well as rejuvenator.2. recently released Heritage Foundation study. In total, the expansion of the military budget represents a 3,852% increase in nominal growth. This also represents a strong commitment by China to overtake the west and to recapture the prestige it feels rightly belongs to the Middle Kingdom.

Eighteen years ago, the former Secretary-General of the CCP, Jiang Zemin, declared the early decades of the 21st century to be a period of “strategic opportunity” for China. Speaking to the CCP’s 19th Party Congress in Beijing, Jiang explained that the first 20 years would be for progress toward strategic warfighting domains, the next fifteen were for modernization and by 2050 he announced China would be a world-class military. In its latest annual report to Congress, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission stated that China is ahead of this schedule by over a decade. Despite any short-term disruptions encountered due to the Covid-19 virus it appears China is well-positioned to be a major thorn in the side of western leaders given its recent history of increasingly aggressive military behavior across the globe. 

When western nations attempt to evaluate how much China is spending it is important to recognize that the Chinese version of what is included is very different from what is included in democratic nations.  Many parts of Chinese military spending simply are not quantitatively available for analysis by non-Chinese. Transparency is lacking. And, little of the official data put out by the CCP is reliable. When China does release numerical figures (vs. a percentage increase or decrease), they are suspect as they are created typically to back the government’s latest propaganda campaign. There are other differentials that need to be examined but often get overlooked by the western media. The cost of labor in China is not equal to the costs incurred by employers in the west. Items not labeled as military expenditures in China often do fall under western military budgets. It makes it incredibly difficult for a fair comparison of spending between the west and China. In addition, there is the ubiquitous use of the PLA to reinforce the stability of the Communist Party and its absolute leadership over the country.  Today, President Xi Jinping uses the PLA to stabilize his authoritarian rule and to reinforce the indoctrination of the Chinese people. The CCP leadership doesn’t trust the population to support it without draconian measures designed to instill fear and obedience. There is no quantitative measure to identify the cost of repression. The western media act outraged at the size of the US defense budget, yet few delve into the real story behind the numbers of what China is doing today and where it plans to be tomorrow.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Photo: China Ministry of National Defense

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China Matches U.S. in Military Prowess, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its review of China’s growing military power. 

Beijing already has a larger number of submarines than the U.S. Navy, and its overall fleet will exceed America’s by 2020. It’s growing naval power has given it the confidence and ability [to do more than] ignore international law. Reuters  has reported that Chinese spy ships have shadowed the U.S. aircraft Carrier USS John C. Stennis. It’s not the first time the U.S. Navy was openly challenged by China.  In 2007, the Daily Mail reported that “American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk – a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board. By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier.

According to senior NATO officials the incident caused consternation in the U.S. Navy. The Americans had no idea China’s fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication, or that it posed such a threat. One NATO figure said the effect was “as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik” – a reference to the Soviet Union’s first orbiting satellite in 1957 which marked the start of the space age. The incident, which took place in the ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan, is a major embarrassment for the Pentagon.” [The New York Analysis will provide a longer review of China’s naval strength tomorrow.]

A review in the South China Morning Post  (in conjunction with the Associated Press) highlighted ten weapons that Beijing has unveiled over the past several years that underscore its rising military sophistication. They include:

  • the DF-26 missile, intermediate-range ballistic missile dubbed the “Guam killer”, with its 4,000km range putting it within striking distance of the US naval base at Guam;
  • the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile known as a carrier-killer with a maximum range of 1,450km;
  • the DF-5B The liquid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic, which can carry three or more nuclear warheads with a range of up to 15,000km;
  • the WZ-19 helicopter used to attack tanks and other heavy targets;
  • the Y-9 transport aircraft, a design platform for the air force’s early warning aircraft KJ-200 and KJ-500;
  • the H-6K nuclear strike strategic bomber; the ZTL-09 armored vehicle, with a 105mm gun that can destroyed armored targets over 2km away;
  • the ZTZ-99A main battle tank with a 125mm smoothbore gun and carousel-style autoloader
  • ; the ZBD-04 Infantry fighting vehicle; and
  • the HQ-10/FL-3000N short-range air-defense missile, capable of expanding the navy’s force projection capability. The weapon is mounted on the navy’s most advanced Type 052D  destroyers and Type 056 frigates.

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To take the fullest advantage of its new technology and weaponry, Beijing is modernizing all aspects of its armed forces.

The English language edition of China’s Xinhua news source reports that. “China aims to complete the reform of its 2.3-million-strong army and have the most modern armed forces capable of ‘informationised warfare’ by 2020… China’s armed forces will realise ‘a significant increase of key combat capabilities,’ said the 13th five-year military development plan (2016-2020) issued by the Central Military Commission (CMC), the overall commanding authority of the People’s Liberation Army headed by President Xi Jinping.By 2020, the PLA will have finished mechanisation of all forces and made important progress in incorporating information and computer-technology…More resources will be directed to projects that enhance combat readiness…”

The reforms, notes the Wall Street Journal, “ could enable China not just to challenge U.S. military dominance in Asia, but also to intervene militarily elsewhere … the concern for the U.S. and its allies is that Beijing might use force in ways that conflict with Western interests…The PLA had begun taking tentative steps abroad even before Mr. Xi’s plan. It has sent ships and submarines into the Pacific and Indian Oceans, installed military equipment on reclaimed land in the South China Sea and challenged U.S. naval forces around China’s coast…Mr. Xi has indicated he sees a comparable capability as essential to the “China Dream” he outlined after taking power in 2012, when he ordered the military to prepare to “fight and win wars.” A defense white paper last year gave the PLA a new strategic task to “safeguard the security of China’s overseas interests” on top of its traditional defensive duties.

The Report concludes tomorrow, with a look at China’s naval prowess

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Report on China’s Military Developments: Part 1

Each Year, the Department of Defense provides an annual report to Congress on “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s  Republic of China.”

 The New York Analysis of Policy and Government has reviewed the just-released 2016 report. We have excerpted key portions, and over the next three days will present them here.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The long-term, comprehensive modernization of the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) entered a new phase in 2015 as China unveiled sweeping organizational reforms to overhaul the entire military structure. These reforms aim to strengthen the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) control over the military, enhance the PLA’s ability to conduct joint operations, and improve its ability to fight short-duration, high-intensity regional conflicts at greater distances from the Chinese mainland. China’s leaders seek ways to leverage China’s growing military, diplomatic, and economic clout to advance its ambitions to establish regional preeminence and expand its international influence. Chinese leaders have characterized modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as essential to achieving great power status and what Chinese President Xi Jinping calls the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation. They portray a strong military as critical to advancing Chinese interests, preventing other countries from taking steps that would damage those interests, and ensuring that China can defend itself and its sovereignty claims.

Throughout 2015, China continued to assert sovereignty claims over features in the East and South China Seas. In the East China Sea, China continued to use maritime law enforcement ships and aircraft to patrol near the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands in order to challenge Japan’s claim. In the South China Sea, China paused its land reclamation effort in the Spratly Islands in late 2015 after adding more than 3,200 acres of land to the seven features it occupies in the archipelago. Although these artificial islands do not provide China with any additional territorial or maritime rights within the South China Sea, China will be able to use them as persistent civil-military bases to enhance its long-term presence in the South China Sea significantly.

China demonstrated a willingness to tolerate higher levels of tension in the pursuit of its interests, especially in pursuit of its territorial claims in the East and South China Sea; however, China still seeks to avoid direct and explicit conflict with the United States. China’s leaders understand that instability or conflict would jeopardize the peaceful external environment that has enabled China’s economic development, which is central to the perpetuation of the CCP’s domestic legitimacy. In the near-term, China is using coercive tactics short of armed conflict, such as the use of law enforcement vessels to enforce maritime claims, to advance their interests in ways that are calculated to fall below the threshold of provoking conflict.

In the long term, Chinese leaders are focused on developing the capabilities they deem necessary to deter or defeat adversary power projection and counter third-party—including U.S.—intervention during a crisis or conflict. China’s military modernization is producing capabilities that have the potential to reduce core U.S. military technological advantages. China’s officially-disclosed military budget grew at an average of 9.8 percent per year in inflation-adjusted terms from 2006 through 2015, and Chinese leaders seem committed to sustaining defense spending growth for the foreseeable future, even as China’s economic growth decelerates.

Apart from the medicines, there are some foods to do wonders in the bed. viagra online consultation Lower levels of testosterone also reduce stamina click to read more cialis ordering and vigor for copulation is increasing. To sum female viagra pill website here up, sex enhancing supplements have several benefits. This coffee contains a chemical that can cause the purchase viagra no prescription problems of sexual character, and also diseases that influence on a sex appeal. The PRC continues to focus on preparing for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, but additional missions, such as contingencies in the East and South China Seas and on the Korean peninsula, are increasingly important to the PLA. Moreover, as China’s global footprint and international interests grow, its military modernization program has become more focused on investments and infrastructure to support a range of missions beyond China’s periphery, including power projection, sea lane security, counterpiracy, peacekeeping, and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR). PLA global operations in 2015 included counterpiracy patrols, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, exercises, and sea lane security operations. China’s November 2015 public confirmation of its intention to build its first overseas military support facility in Djibouti likely reflects this more global outlook, as it will be utilized to sustain the PLA Navy’s operations at greater distances from China.

During 2015, the PLA continued to improve key capabilities that would be used in theater contingencies, including cruise missiles; short, medium, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles; high performance aircraft; integrated air defense networks; information operations capabilities; and amphibious and airborne assault units. The PLA is developing and testing new intermediate- and medium-range conventional ballistic missiles as well as long-range, land-attack, and anti-ship cruise missiles, which once operational would extend the military’s reach and push adversary forces further from potential regional conflicts. China is also focusing on counterspace, offensive cyber operations, and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities meant to deny adversaries the advantages of modern, information technology-driven warfare.

Despite the PLA’s gains over the last two decades, its modernization program faces challenges. The organizational reforms unveiled by the leadership are part of a broader effort by President Xi to address the PLA’s deficiencies, such as corruption. Since Xi took power in 2012, more than forty senior officers have fallen in a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign that last year ensnared the former top officer in the PLA. Moreover, Xi’s slogan exhorting the PLA to prepare to “fight and win” battles implies that the leadership is concerned about how the PLA, which has not fought a war in more than thirty years, would fare in combat.

The Department of Defense (DoD) approach to China is part of a broader U.S. strategy for the Asia-Pacific region that is focused on ensuring and building upon a stable and diversified security order, an open and transparent economic order, and a liberal political order. Combined, these factors have contributed to the peace and prosperity of the entire region since the end of the Second World War, directly benefiting China and its neighbors. U.S. policy toward China is based on the premise that it is in both our countries’ interests to deepen practical cooperation in areas where our countries’ interests overlap, while constructively managing differences.

Sustaining positive momentum in the military-to-military relationship supports U.S. policy objectives to encourage China to uphold international rules and norms and to contribute positively to resolving regional and global problems. DoD seeks to continue building a military-to-military relationship with China that is sustained and substantive. DoD will continue to focus on enhancing risk reduction measures that diminish the potential for incidents or miscalculation, and encourage China to contribute constructively to efforts to maintain peace and stability with the United States, our allies and partners, and the greater international community.

While the United States builds a stronger military-to-military relationship with China, DoD will also continue to monitor and adapt to China’s evolving military strategy, doctrine, and force development, and encourage China to be more transparent about its military modernization program. The United States will adapt its forces, posture, investments, and operational concepts to ensure it retains the ability to defend the homeland, deter aggression, protect our allies, and preserve a principled regional order founded in international law and norms that benefit all countries equally.

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China releases its Military Strategy paper

Beijing has increased its rate of military spending at a pace faster than either the Soviet Union or the U.S. during the height of the Cold War. It’s recently released military strategy document portrays the nation’s rise to military superpower status as defensive: (The text of China’s Military Strategy statement was recently released by the U.S. Naval Institute. The full document can be viewed at http://news.usni.org/2015/05/26/document-chinas-military-strategy. Quotes directly from it are in italics.)

“Building a strong national defense and powerful armed forces is a strategic task of China’s modernization drive and a security guarantee for China’s peaceful development. Subordinate to and serving the national strategic goal, China’s military strategy is an overarching guidance for blueprinting and directing the building and employment of the country’s armed forces. At this new historical starting point, China’s armed forces will adapt themselves to new changes in the national security environment, firmly follow the goal of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to build a strong military for the new situation, implement the military strategic guideline of active defense in the new situation, accelerate the modernization of national defense and armed forces, resolutely safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and development interests, and provide a strong guarantee for achieving the national strategic goal of the “two centenaries” and for realizing the Chinese Dream of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

The “two centenaries” reference is interesting. By 2020, unless the United States very quickly reverses the decline of its navy, China will have achieved a clear regional naval superiority over the United States. That time frame also incorporates the attainment of several other key goals.

The Diplomat publication http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/why-2020-is-a-make-or-break-year-for-china/ notes that “Those perusing China’s reform plans can’t help but notice a certain date popping up with surprising frequency: 2020. A number of key goals, all seemingly unrelated, are pegged to this date. By 2020, leaders say, China will: achieve a 60 percent urbanization rate; complete construction on the Chinese space station; become an “Internet power”; place a cap on coal use and transition to clean energy; and even (according to unofficial reports) have its first domestically-built aircraft carrier. [China’s current aircraft carrier was built abroad.] Perhaps most importantly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has pledged that by 2020, China will be a “moderately well-off society” – meaning, in hard terms, that the per capita income in China will be double the 2010 figure. China will also attempt to double its current GDP in that same timeframe. [America’s GDP declined in the first quarter of 2015.] That, in turn, is supposed to help China establish its international image and build up soft power.” 2021 will also mark the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.

The success of China’s military buildup is reflected in Beijing’s confidence of its new role in the world, as described in its military strategy document:

“Profound changes are taking place in the international situation, as manifested in the historic changes in the balance of power, global governance structure, Asia-Pacific geostrategic landscape, and international competition in the economic, scientific and technological, and military fields.”

Despite Beijing’s powerful armed forces, confidence in its growing power, and its lack of any substantive adversary—Moscow is now an ally, and the United States has sharply diminished its armed forces since fall of the Soviet Union—the document reveals a perception of threats:

“…China, as a large developing country, still faces multiple and complex security threats, as well as increasing external impediments and challenges. Subsistence and development security concerns, as well as traditional and non-traditional security threats are interwoven. Therefore, China has an arduous task to safeguard its national unification, territorial integrity and development interests.”
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The reference to “National unification” refers to its goal of incorporating Taiwan, a move opposed by the United States.

“As the world economic and strategic center of gravity is shifting ever more rapidly to the Asia-Pacific region, the US carries on its “rebalancing” strategy and enhances its military presence and its military alliances in this region. Japan is sparing no effort to dodge the post-war mechanism, overhauling its military and security policies. Such development has caused grave concerns among other countries in the region.”

Both comments overlook actual facts. The U.S. “rebalancing” is little more than public relations, since the dramatically shrunken U.S. Navy simply lacks the ships to make the move anything more than a paper shift.

A significant glimpse into China’s mindset can be obtained in the statement concerning the disputed offshore shoals, which Beijing has occupied and is now, in some instances, militarizing. While the document was expected to assert the nation’s position, a more belligerent attitude was taken:

“On the issues concerning China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, some of its offshore neighbors take provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on China’s reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied. Some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs; a tiny few maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance against China. It is thus a long-standing task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests. Certain disputes over land territory are still smoldering. The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are shrouded in instability and uncertainty. Regional terrorism, separatism and extremism are rampant. All these have a negative impact on the security and stability along China’s periphery.”

The reference to “close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance” refers to U.S. actions in international waters and airspace, as defined under international law.

This document is a glimpse into Beijing’s self-justification for its militaristic rise, and its clear intention to hostilely dominate a portion of the globe vital to U.S. and western economic and security interests.

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China’s Military Threat

For a number of years, China’s military has increased its military spending by higher annual percentages than either the USA or the USSR at the height of the Cold War.  It now must be considered a military and economic superpower with aggressive tendencies that threaten not only its neighbors but the interests of peace throughout the globe.

Beijing’s forces have nearly twice the manpower of the U.S. (2,285,000 vs. 1,429,995). It will have more ships than the U.S. navy by 2020 (351 vs. 250) and more tanks than the U.S. (9,000 vs. 8,725.) The U.S. has a two to one lead in aircraft. However, that lead in quality and quantity may shrink rapidly as budget cuts in the U.S. and continued double digit increases in the PLA budget come to fruition.

According to the U.S-China Security Review Commission’s 2014 report,

“With the exception of 2010, China’s official defense budget has increased in nominal terms by double-digits every year since 1989. China’s actual aggregate defense spending is higher than the officially announced budget due to Beijing’s omission of major defense-related expenditures—such as purchases of advanced weapons, research and development programs, and local government support to the PLA—from its official figures…

“China has made progress in its missile sector and now is able to rapidly develop and produce a diverse array of advanced ballistic and cruise missiles. China maintains the largest and most lethal short-range ballistic missile force in the world; fielded the world’s first antiship ballistic missile in 2010; deployed its military’s first long-range, air-launched land-attack cruise missile in 2012; and will widely deploy its military’s first indigenous advanced, long range submarine-launched antiship missile in the next few years, if it has not already.

“In 2014, China conducted its first test of a new hypersonic missile vehicle, which can conduct kinetic strikes anywhere in the world within minutes to hours, and performed its second flight test of a new road-mobile intercontinental missile that will be able to strike the entire continental United States and could carry up to 10 independently maneuverable warheads.

“In the maritime domain, China in 2014 continued its transformation from a coastal force into a technologically advanced navy capable of projecting power throughout the Asia Pacific. Since the Commission’s 2013 Annual Report, the PLA Navy has expanded its presence in the East and South China Seas and for the first time begun combat patrols in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, China’s first aircraft carrier in January conducted its first long-distance training deployment. The nature of the deployment suggests China is experimenting with multiple types of carrier formations, including those resembling U.S. combined expeditionary groups.

“Regarding China’s nuclear forces, high-confidence assessments of the numbers of Chinese nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads are not possible due to China’s lack of transparency about its nuclear program. The Department of Defense (DoD) has not released detailed information on China’s nuclear program, only noting in 2013 that “China’s nuclear arsenal currently consists of approximately 50‒75 intercontinental ballistic missiles,” and that “the number of Chinese intercontinental missile nuclear warheads capable of reaching the United States could expand to well over 100 within the next 15 years.

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“In space, China in 2014 continued to pursue a broad counterspace program to challenge U.S. information superiority in a conflict and disrupt or destroy U.S. satellites if necessary. Beijing also likely calculates its growing space warfare capabilities will enhance its strategic deterrent as well as allow China to coerce the United States and other countries into not interfering with China militarily. Based on the number and diversity of China’s existing and developmental counterspace capabilities, China probably will be able to hold at risk U.S. national security satellites in every orbital regime in the next five to ten years…

“Frank Kendall, undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics, testified to the House Armed Services Committee in January 2014 that concerning “technological superiority, DoD is being challenged in ways that I have not seen for decades, particularly in the Asia Pacific region. … Technological superiority is not assured and we cannot be complacent about our posture.” China’s rise as a major military power challenges decades of air and naval dominance by the United States in a region in which Washington has substantial economic and security interests…

“As a result of China’s comprehensive and rapid military modernization, the regional balance of power between China, on the one hand, and the United States and its allies and associates on the other, is shifting in China’s direction.  China’s accelerated military modernization program has been enabled by China’s rapid economic growth; reliable and generous increases to the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) budget; gradual improvements to China’s defense industrial base; and China’s acquisition and assimilation of foreign technologies—especially from Russia, Europe, and the United States—through both purchase and theft.”

Some studies, such as that recently released by the Rand corporation,    have noted that “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Is Becoming More Professional and More Capable.” And its “capabilities aimed at deterring or, if necessary, countering U.S. military intervention in the Asia-Pacific region, including systems designed to hold U.S. military bases, aircraft carriers, space systems, and computer networks at risk have improved markedly.” The Rand study does outline organizational challenges Beijing faces in wielding its vast new military.

Another key study, The Department of Defense’s 2014 Annual Report on China’s Military Power  noted China’s military investments provide it with a growing ability to project power at increasingly longer ranges. In 2013, this included at-sea testing of China’s first aircraft carrier and continued development of fifth generation fighter aircraft.

Equally worrisomely in the Defense Department’s report was the description of China’s growing cooperation, evidenced by significant joint training and exercises, between China and Russia.

Politicians interested in continuing to borrow funds to hide excess federal spending, as well as those who seek commercial relations Beijing, continue to downplay the dramatic danger of China’s vast new military strength and its growing relationship with Putin government.