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China releases its Military Strategy paper

Beijing has increased its rate of military spending at a pace faster than either the Soviet Union or the U.S. during the height of the Cold War. It’s recently released military strategy document portrays the nation’s rise to military superpower status as defensive: (The text of China’s Military Strategy statement was recently released by the U.S. Naval Institute. The full document can be viewed at http://news.usni.org/2015/05/26/document-chinas-military-strategy. Quotes directly from it are in italics.)

“Building a strong national defense and powerful armed forces is a strategic task of China’s modernization drive and a security guarantee for China’s peaceful development. Subordinate to and serving the national strategic goal, China’s military strategy is an overarching guidance for blueprinting and directing the building and employment of the country’s armed forces. At this new historical starting point, China’s armed forces will adapt themselves to new changes in the national security environment, firmly follow the goal of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to build a strong military for the new situation, implement the military strategic guideline of active defense in the new situation, accelerate the modernization of national defense and armed forces, resolutely safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and development interests, and provide a strong guarantee for achieving the national strategic goal of the “two centenaries” and for realizing the Chinese Dream of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

The “two centenaries” reference is interesting. By 2020, unless the United States very quickly reverses the decline of its navy, China will have achieved a clear regional naval superiority over the United States. That time frame also incorporates the attainment of several other key goals.

The Diplomat publication http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/why-2020-is-a-make-or-break-year-for-china/ notes that “Those perusing China’s reform plans can’t help but notice a certain date popping up with surprising frequency: 2020. A number of key goals, all seemingly unrelated, are pegged to this date. By 2020, leaders say, China will: achieve a 60 percent urbanization rate; complete construction on the Chinese space station; become an “Internet power”; place a cap on coal use and transition to clean energy; and even (according to unofficial reports) have its first domestically-built aircraft carrier. [China’s current aircraft carrier was built abroad.] Perhaps most importantly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has pledged that by 2020, China will be a “moderately well-off society” – meaning, in hard terms, that the per capita income in China will be double the 2010 figure. China will also attempt to double its current GDP in that same timeframe. [America’s GDP declined in the first quarter of 2015.] That, in turn, is supposed to help China establish its international image and build up soft power.” 2021 will also mark the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.

The success of China’s military buildup is reflected in Beijing’s confidence of its new role in the world, as described in its military strategy document:

“Profound changes are taking place in the international situation, as manifested in the historic changes in the balance of power, global governance structure, Asia-Pacific geostrategic landscape, and international competition in the economic, scientific and technological, and military fields.”

Despite Beijing’s powerful armed forces, confidence in its growing power, and its lack of any substantive adversary—Moscow is now an ally, and the United States has sharply diminished its armed forces since fall of the Soviet Union—the document reveals a perception of threats:

“…China, as a large developing country, still faces multiple and complex security threats, as well as increasing external impediments and challenges. Subsistence and development security concerns, as well as traditional and non-traditional security threats are interwoven. Therefore, China has an arduous task to safeguard its national unification, territorial integrity and development interests.”
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The reference to “National unification” refers to its goal of incorporating Taiwan, a move opposed by the United States.

“As the world economic and strategic center of gravity is shifting ever more rapidly to the Asia-Pacific region, the US carries on its “rebalancing” strategy and enhances its military presence and its military alliances in this region. Japan is sparing no effort to dodge the post-war mechanism, overhauling its military and security policies. Such development has caused grave concerns among other countries in the region.”

Both comments overlook actual facts. The U.S. “rebalancing” is little more than public relations, since the dramatically shrunken U.S. Navy simply lacks the ships to make the move anything more than a paper shift.

A significant glimpse into China’s mindset can be obtained in the statement concerning the disputed offshore shoals, which Beijing has occupied and is now, in some instances, militarizing. While the document was expected to assert the nation’s position, a more belligerent attitude was taken:

“On the issues concerning China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, some of its offshore neighbors take provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on China’s reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied. Some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs; a tiny few maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance against China. It is thus a long-standing task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests. Certain disputes over land territory are still smoldering. The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are shrouded in instability and uncertainty. Regional terrorism, separatism and extremism are rampant. All these have a negative impact on the security and stability along China’s periphery.”

The reference to “close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance” refers to U.S. actions in international waters and airspace, as defined under international law.

This document is a glimpse into Beijing’s self-justification for its militaristic rise, and its clear intention to hostilely dominate a portion of the globe vital to U.S. and western economic and security interests.

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China’s military aggressiveness cited in new report

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government continues its exploration of the 2014 report of the U.S.-China  Economic and Security Review Commission. http://www.uscc.gov/

“During 2014, China’s military modernization continued at a fast pace, creating additional challenges for the United States and its allies, and China’s neighbors. Most notably, China conducted its first test of a new hypersonic missile vehicle, which could enable China to conduct kinetic strikes anywhere in the world within minutes to hours, and performed its second flight test of a new road-mobile intercontinental missile that will be able to strike the entire continental United States and could carry up to 10 independently maneuverable warheads.

“Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) increased its inventory of modern submarines, surface ships, and combat aircraft while upgrading its legacy platforms with new weapon systems.

“In the maritime domain, the PLA Navy continued its transformation from a coastal force into a technologically advanced navy capable of projecting power throughout the Asia Pacific. Since the Commission’s 2013 Annual Report, the PLA Navy has expanded its presence in the East and South China Seas and for the first time begun combat patrols in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, China’s first aircraft carrier in January conducted its first long-distance training deployment.

“The nature of the deployment suggests China is experimenting with multiple types of carrier formations, including those resembling U.S. combined expeditionary groups.
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“China’s growing confidence in its military capabilities has emboldened Beijing to aggressively advance its territorial ambitions. Since approximately 2009, China has increasingly used coercive military and economic measures to assert control over its territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. Since late 2013, however, China has been more willing to advance its sovereignty claims without seeking to justify its actions as responses to perceived provocations by rival claimants. The three most significant manifestations of this new, even more assertive turn are China’s establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea; China’s relocation of an oil rig to waters disputed by Vietnam in the South China Sea; and China’s ongoing attempts to prevent the Philippines from resupplying its military outpost at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea…

“Perhaps of most concern is Beijing’s apparent willingness to provoke incidents at sea and in the air that could lead to a major conflict as China’s maritime and air forces expand their operations beyond China’s immediate periphery. China already has initiated dangerous encounters at sea on several occasions. In December 2013, a U.S. Navy ship was forced to maneuver to avoid a collision with a PLA Navy ship that had intentionally stopped in front of it. Both ships were operating in international waters. Later in 2014, a China Coast Guard ship rammed Vietnamese government ships following China’s placement of a state-owned deep-sea drilling platform inside Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, and a Chinese fighter flew within 30 feet of a U.S. Navy reconnaissance aircraft international airspace.

“This pattern of unilateral Chinese actions in sensitive and disputed areas is raising tensions in the Asia Pacific and alienating many of its neighbors. China’s deepening economic, diplomatic, and military influence on its geographic periphery has led its neighboring countries to reconsider their security strategies and relationships, particularly those involving the United States. As the United States seeks to reaffirm its alliances and boost its security links with associates in East Asia and Oceania, it must contend with China’s competing vision of a China-led regional security architecture.

“This uncertain environment is further complicated by China’s support for North Korea, which continues to pose the most serious threat to East Asia security.”