China’s military buildup

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its review of China’s growing military power.

Beijing already has a larger number of submarines than the U.S. Navy, and its overall fleet will exceed America’s by 2020. It’s growing naval power has given it the confidence and ability [to do more than] ignore international law. Reuters has reported that Chinese spy ships have shadowed the U.S. aircraft Carrier USS John C. Stennis. It’s not the first time the U.S. Navy was openly challenged by China. In 2007, the Daily Mail reported that “American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk – a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board. By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier.

According to senior NATO officials the incident caused consternation in the U.S. Navy. The Americans had no idea China’s fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication, or that it posed such a threat. One NATO figure said the effect was “as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik” – a reference to the Soviet Union’s first orbiting satellite in 1957 which marked the start of the space age. The incident, which took place in the ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan, is a major embarrassment for the Pentagon.” [The New York Analysis will provide a longer review of China’s naval strength tomorrow.]

A review in the South China Morning Post (in conjunction with the Associated Press) highlighted ten weapons that Beijing has unveiled over the past several years that underscore its rising military sophistication. They include:

the DF-26 missile, intermediate-range ballistic missile dubbed the “Guam killer”, with its 4,000km range putting it within striking distance of the US naval base at Guam;
the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile known as a carrier-killer with a maximum range of 1,450km;
the DF-5B The liquid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic, which can carry three or more nuclear warheads with a range of up to 15,000km;
the WZ-19 helicopter used to attack tanks and other heavy targets;
the Y-9 transport aircraft, a design platform for the air force’s early warning aircraft KJ-200 and KJ-500;
the H-6K nuclear strike strategic bomber; the ZTL-09 armored vehicle, with a 105mm gun that can destroyed armored targets over 2km away;
the ZTZ-99A main battle tank with a 125mm smoothbore gun and carousel-style autoloader
; the ZBD-04 Infantry fighting vehicle; and
the HQ-10/FL-3000N short-range air-defense missile, capable of expanding the navy’s force projection capability. The weapon is mounted on the navy’s most advanced Type 052D destroyers and Type 056 frigates.

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To take the fullest advantage of its new technology and weaponry, Beijing is modernizing all aspects of its armed forces.

The English language edition of China’s Xinhua news source reports that. “China aims to complete the reform of its 2.3-million-strong army and have the most modern armed forces capable of ‘informationised warfare’ by 2020… China’s armed forces will realise ‘a significant increase of key combat capabilities,’ said the 13th five-year military development plan (2016-2020) issued by the Central Military Commission (CMC), the overall commanding authority of the People’s Liberation Army headed by President Xi Jinping.By 2020, the PLA will have finished mechanisation of all forces and made important progress in incorporating information and computer-technology…More resources will be directed to projects that enhance combat readiness…”

The reforms, notes the Wall Street Journal, “ could enable China not just to challenge U.S. military dominance in Asia, but also to intervene militarily elsewhere … the concern for the U.S. and its allies is that Beijing might use force in ways that conflict with Western interests…The PLA had begun taking tentative steps abroad even before Mr. Xi’s plan. It has sent ships and submarines into the Pacific and Indian Oceans, installed military equipment on reclaimed land in the South China Sea and challenged U.S. naval forces around China’s coast…Mr. Xi has indicated he sees a comparable capability as essential to the “China Dream” he outlined after taking power in 2012, when he ordered the military to prepare to “fight and win wars.” A defense white paper last year gave the PLA a new strategic task to “safeguard the security of China’s overseas interests” on top of its traditional defensive duties.

The Report concludes tomorrow, with a look at China’s naval prowess

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released its 2014 Annual Report to Congress. In two crucial areas—economic and military affairs, it paints a disturbing picture. In today’s report, we present the Commission’s summary of the challenges represented by Beijing’s trade policies.

China’s unfair practices occur in a number of economic spheres. Last March, The World Trade Organization decided that China broke trade rules by limiting the export of rare-earth metals in an effort to give their domestic manufacturers a key advantage. The practice also has national security implications, since many of the resources in question are key elements in defense industry manufacturing.

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American manufacturers already operate under a number of handicaps imposed by Washington. China’s policies are delivering a further and potentially decisive blow.

Quick Analysis

Election Day is Only the Beginning

Election day is not an end, it is a beginning. What will the victor do for the next four years? The 2024 election is unusual, in that it is a battle, in many ways, of one incumbent against the other. There is a fairly clear picture of what both candidates will do if they win. It can reasonably be expected that both will follow the paths they established during their tenure in office. Speaking of his vice president, Biden stated that “…as vice president, there wasn’t a single thing that I did that she couldn’t do. And so I was able to delegate [to] her responsibility on everything from foreign policy to domestic policy.” The White House website concurs. “As President of the Senate, Vice President Harris set a new record for the most tie-breaking votes cast by a Vice President in history – surpassing a record that had stood for nearly 200 years. And her votes have been consequential. This includes casting the decisive vote to secure passage of the landmark Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment ever in tackling the climate crisis. She also presided over the unprecedented vote to confirm the first Black woman, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, to the Supreme Court while working alongside President Biden to achieve historic representation of women and people of color among nominees at all levels of the federal government.” Vice President Harris was, indeed, the crucial tie-breaking vote on the inflation reduction act. The House Oversight Committee notes that “Instead of lowering prices, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) hiked taxes on businesses, mandates price controls on drugs, devoted $80 billion to hire 87,000 new Internal Revenue Service (IRS) agents to target middle class Americans, and earmarked $300 billion to advance Democrats’ radical climate agenda. The IRA’s drug pricing scheme means higher prices, fewer cures, and less access to care for American patients. “Joel White, President of the Council for Affordable Health Coverage, discussed how the IRA will result in fewer cures during his opening testimony. “All of the experts – CBO, the CMS Actuary, and private academics – agree that the IRA will result in fewer therapies. They simply disagree on the extent of the damage.” “President Biden is willing to sacrifice our economic security to pursue his radical Green New Deal. “President Biden and Democrats have used the IRA to disguise radical Green New Deal policies that put China over the U.S. “New estimates project the actual cost of the IRA green energy will be double the projected amount. “Preston Brashers, PhD, and Senior Policy Analyst of Tax Policy at the Heritage Foundation said during his opening testimony, “The IRA is much more fiscally irresponsible than it appeared on paper. It uses gimmicky and questionable pay-fors and expirations, and some of the provisions are proving much more costly than forecasters expected – especially the bevy of tax credits for green energy, electric vehicles, carbon sequestration, and other things ostensibly connected to the climate agenda.” In stark contrast, inflation was comparatively tamed during the Trump years. Yahoo Finance reports that “ Trump oversaw a period of relatively low inflation, and Biden’s term so far has largely been defined by rapidly rising prices and the most painful inflation since the early 1980s.” On foreign affairs, the Biden-Harris record is worrisome. The House Oversight Committee also reports that “Meaghan Mobbs, Director of the Center for American Safety and Security: “The core duty of any government is to protect its people. Yet, over the last four years, the world has only grown more dangerous. Under the current administration, we have witnessed the largest attack on a European nation in 85 years and the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. Our enemies no longer view the United States as a nation ready to act with strength and resolve when confronted. Instead, they witnessed an administration more focused on diplomatic gestures and conciliatory measures, often at the expense of American security. The article concludes tomorrow Photo: White House web site