Tag: China’s future

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CCP to Address China’s Future

The world should be deeply concerned about China’s future plans.

The end of October marked the conclusion of the Fifth Plenum session of the 19th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress. The CCP holds a Party Congress every five years. In between are annual plenary sessions. Each session traditionally covers a different area. The fifth plenary session held last week immediately precedes the next full Party Congress to be held next autumn. It serves as a preparatory meeting. The Plenum session typically provides a glimpse into where the CCP leadership intends to take the country in the coming five years.

Information from this year’s meeting documents, including the final 2020 communiqué, indicate China is deliberately entering a period of increased volatility in world affairs, from planned aggressive moves in the South China Sea, to “acquiring” high technology from Western nations. It denotes an intensification and acceleration of its quest to remake the world in China’s image and to become the world power by 2050. They may sound like lofty goals, but Chinese President Xi Jinping has his personal hand in editing the plan. Although the public version is not that explicit, we still can garner a lot of information from the meeting.

The CCP plans to make China more self-sufficient to enable it to better weather economic dislocations should foreign nations take actions to constrain the country. It is described as a “half decoupling” in China’s quest to force a strategic change in the international balance of power. The United States and other Western nations can expect increased international competition and rivalry from China in the next few years as it does not intend to slow down no matter who is president of the United States. Members of the CCP leadership see China as the rising star and they intend to ensure that the US is the setting sun. 

There are three specific, inciteful phrases that explain China’s perspective. First, President Xi and the CCP senior leadership see themselves as “living during a window of strategic opportunity.” China entered this period in the early part of the 21st century and from its world view, needs to take advantage of it now. Second, a repeated phrase in written documents and spoken about often over the last few years, is that this period in Chinese history will bring about “change unseen in 100 years.” This refers to the unequal treaties period of the late 19th and early 20th century in which Western powers demanded one-sided terms requiring China to cede land, ports, pay reparations, and provide extraterritorial privileges to foreign citizens from Russia, Japan, and various Western nations. The Plenum participants view this as a sign China is becoming stronger although it also means new confrontations on the horizon. The third phrase mentioned is that there are “profound adjustments coming in the international balance of power.” First seen in 2017, it is a reference to how well China survived and adjusted in the post-2008, global financial crisis environment. 

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In Beijing’s estimation the US did not do as well, nor did it recover as quickly. It attributes this to its “superior” state-capitalism system. It looks to the more recent Covid-19 response in the US as an example of how Washington is unable to enforce adaptability across all strata of society as Beijing can over its population. 

The West underestimates the uber level of belief in China that it will be a global hegemon within a few  decades as “the wind shifts to the east.” We are facing a country with massive financial resources that they willingly use to pursue policies to bring about their end goal. The hybrid fusion of the public and semi-private sectors in China represents the total integration of their domestic economy. It is dominated by giant conglomerates that operate in unison under the direction of the CCP. The world have never face off with a nation-state with as many strategic resources or the strength of political will as China is exhibiting today.  President Xi will remain in power for the coming decade and he is not one to back down from a challenge, no matter how hard the West wishes it so.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

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China releases its Military Strategy paper

Beijing has increased its rate of military spending at a pace faster than either the Soviet Union or the U.S. during the height of the Cold War. It’s recently released military strategy document portrays the nation’s rise to military superpower status as defensive: (The text of China’s Military Strategy statement was recently released by the U.S. Naval Institute. The full document can be viewed at http://news.usni.org/2015/05/26/document-chinas-military-strategy. Quotes directly from it are in italics.)

“Building a strong national defense and powerful armed forces is a strategic task of China’s modernization drive and a security guarantee for China’s peaceful development. Subordinate to and serving the national strategic goal, China’s military strategy is an overarching guidance for blueprinting and directing the building and employment of the country’s armed forces. At this new historical starting point, China’s armed forces will adapt themselves to new changes in the national security environment, firmly follow the goal of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to build a strong military for the new situation, implement the military strategic guideline of active defense in the new situation, accelerate the modernization of national defense and armed forces, resolutely safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and development interests, and provide a strong guarantee for achieving the national strategic goal of the “two centenaries” and for realizing the Chinese Dream of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

The “two centenaries” reference is interesting. By 2020, unless the United States very quickly reverses the decline of its navy, China will have achieved a clear regional naval superiority over the United States. That time frame also incorporates the attainment of several other key goals.

The Diplomat publication http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/why-2020-is-a-make-or-break-year-for-china/ notes that “Those perusing China’s reform plans can’t help but notice a certain date popping up with surprising frequency: 2020. A number of key goals, all seemingly unrelated, are pegged to this date. By 2020, leaders say, China will: achieve a 60 percent urbanization rate; complete construction on the Chinese space station; become an “Internet power”; place a cap on coal use and transition to clean energy; and even (according to unofficial reports) have its first domestically-built aircraft carrier. [China’s current aircraft carrier was built abroad.] Perhaps most importantly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has pledged that by 2020, China will be a “moderately well-off society” – meaning, in hard terms, that the per capita income in China will be double the 2010 figure. China will also attempt to double its current GDP in that same timeframe. [America’s GDP declined in the first quarter of 2015.] That, in turn, is supposed to help China establish its international image and build up soft power.” 2021 will also mark the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.

The success of China’s military buildup is reflected in Beijing’s confidence of its new role in the world, as described in its military strategy document:

“Profound changes are taking place in the international situation, as manifested in the historic changes in the balance of power, global governance structure, Asia-Pacific geostrategic landscape, and international competition in the economic, scientific and technological, and military fields.”

Despite Beijing’s powerful armed forces, confidence in its growing power, and its lack of any substantive adversary—Moscow is now an ally, and the United States has sharply diminished its armed forces since fall of the Soviet Union—the document reveals a perception of threats:

“…China, as a large developing country, still faces multiple and complex security threats, as well as increasing external impediments and challenges. Subsistence and development security concerns, as well as traditional and non-traditional security threats are interwoven. Therefore, China has an arduous task to safeguard its national unification, territorial integrity and development interests.”
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The reference to “National unification” refers to its goal of incorporating Taiwan, a move opposed by the United States.

“As the world economic and strategic center of gravity is shifting ever more rapidly to the Asia-Pacific region, the US carries on its “rebalancing” strategy and enhances its military presence and its military alliances in this region. Japan is sparing no effort to dodge the post-war mechanism, overhauling its military and security policies. Such development has caused grave concerns among other countries in the region.”

Both comments overlook actual facts. The U.S. “rebalancing” is little more than public relations, since the dramatically shrunken U.S. Navy simply lacks the ships to make the move anything more than a paper shift.

A significant glimpse into China’s mindset can be obtained in the statement concerning the disputed offshore shoals, which Beijing has occupied and is now, in some instances, militarizing. While the document was expected to assert the nation’s position, a more belligerent attitude was taken:

“On the issues concerning China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, some of its offshore neighbors take provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on China’s reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied. Some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs; a tiny few maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance against China. It is thus a long-standing task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests. Certain disputes over land territory are still smoldering. The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are shrouded in instability and uncertainty. Regional terrorism, separatism and extremism are rampant. All these have a negative impact on the security and stability along China’s periphery.”

The reference to “close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance” refers to U.S. actions in international waters and airspace, as defined under international law.

This document is a glimpse into Beijing’s self-justification for its militaristic rise, and its clear intention to hostilely dominate a portion of the globe vital to U.S. and western economic and security interests.

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China’s Rise is not benevolent

It is clear that China is determined to eliminate U.S. influence, which it describes as “hegemony,” in Asia. Beijing phrases its desire in quasi-peaceful statements, but the phrases contradict China’s recent actions in the South China Sea, where its armed forces have seized disputed territory and militarized islands claimed by other nations. It does not reflect China’s invasion of the Philippines offshore exclusive economic zone several years ago.

Internally, China has left little doubt that America is, in its view, the enemy. Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro described this in their tome, “The Coming Conflict with China:”

“In the early months of 1994, a large number of Communist Party officials from all of China’s provinces were summoned to a meeting in Beijing…the attendees…were soon told the reason…was to designate the United States as China’s main global rival and to announce an eventual aim: setting up “a global antihegemonist united front at an opportune moment.” In the carefully crafted attack vocabulary of China, the word “hegemonist” has special meaning. It refers to a country that is so powerful in Asia that China’s independence and sovereignty are threatened by it.”

In Beijing’s worldview, much of what is considered by others international waters or the sovereign territory of other nations belongs to China. Therefore, any nation that defends against China’s expansionist claims, be it the United States, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, or others—is interfering in Beijing’s “internal affairs.”

Bernstein and Munro continue their reporting on the conference:

“General Zhang’s central statement: ‘Facing blatant interference by the American hegemonist in our internal affairs…we must reinforce our armed forces more intensively…’ The authors describe the statement as the “language of the sort of aggressive posture that China has assumed towards the United States, whether testing American resolve on such matters as arms proliferation, violating international human rights standards, or engaging in an ambitious military buildup.”

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“…both societies believe they represent unique values. American exceptionalism is missionary.  It holds that the United States has an obligation to spread its values to every part of the world…China…is the heir to the Middle Kingdom tradition, which formally graded all other states as various levels of tributaries…”

There is a strong belief on the part of many in Western governments and international organizations that China’s rise is relatively benevolent.  But is that truly the case? Martin Jacques, in his study, “When China Rules the World,” presents a more realistic assessment:

“We are so used to the world being Western, even American, that we have little idea what it would be like if it was not…For reasons of both mindset and interest, therefore, the United States, and the West more generally, finds it difficult to visualize, or accept, a world that involves a major and continuing diminution in its influence. Take globalization as an example. The dominant Western view has been that globalization is a process by which the rest of the world becomes…increasingly Westernized, with the adoption of free markets, the import of Western capital, privatization, the rule of law, human rights regimes and democratic norms…[but] as nations grow more prosperous they become increasingly self-confident about their own culture and history, and thereby less inclined to ape the West…the United States may have been the single most influential player, exerting enormous power…but the biggest winner has been East Asia and the greatest single beneficiary China.”

Before placidly accepting China’s rise, which the United States and the West have tacitly done by sharply reducing their military power (the U.S. Navy has shrunk from almost 600 ships in 1990 to about 284 or 254—depending on how one counts certain types of vessels; the U.S. Air Force is at its smallest point since 1940, when it was part of the U.S. Army) it would be prudent to review what a new paradigm that does not include American naval and air supremacy would actually bring. Robert Kaplan discusses this in his book, Asia’s Cauldron:

“The fact that Russia is still constrained in its attempts to seriously undermine the sovereignty of states in Eastern and Central Europe; the fact that the Middle East has so far at least avoided an interstate holocaust of sorts; the fact that Pakistan and India have not engaged in a full-scale war in decades, and have never used their nuclear weapons; the fact that North Korea merely threatens South Korea and Japan with large-scale military aggression rather than actually carrying it out; is all in large measure because of a U.S. global security umbrella. The fact that small and embattled nations, be it Israel or Georgia, can even exist is because of what ultimately the U.S. military provides.  Indeed, it is the deployment of American air and naval platforms worldwide that gives American diplomacy much of its signal heft, which it then uses to support democracy and freer societies everywhere.  Substantially reduce that American military presence, and the world-and the South China Sea, in particular—looks like a very different place.”