China overreach – USA Gov Policy

Tensions between the United States and China had already been at a high pitch in the wake of Beijing’s increasing military power, and its aggressive moves towards its neighbors. Anger over the People’s Republic role in allowing the COVID-19 crisis to spread throughout the planet has escalated the strain to an unprecedented level.

Throughout the Cold War with the Soviet Union, a strong U.S. military presence and a solid collection of allies united through NATO helped Europe, and the world, avoid a third world war. Some in Washington are seeking to gradually develop that concept in the Indo-Pacific region to deter China.

The importance, and the danger, of the region is evident. Among the 10 largest standing armies in the world, 7 reside in the Indo-Pacific; and 6 countries in the region possess nuclear weapons. Nine of the world’s 10 busiest seaports are in the region, and 60 percent of global maritime trade transits through Asia, with roughly one-third of global shipping passing through the South China Sea alone. A quarter of U.S. exports go to the Indo-Pacific, and exports to China and India have more than doubled over the past decade.

Somewhat ironically, while China is the chief source of threat and uncertainty in the region, it is also the chief beneficiary of the Pax Americana that has characterized it since the end of the Second World War. A Department of Defense analysis released in 2019 notes that “Perhaps no country has benefited more from the free and open regional and international system than China, which has witnessed the rise of hundreds of millions from poverty to growing prosperity and security. Yet while the Chinese people aspire to free markets, justice, and the rule of law, the People’s Republic of China, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, undermines the international system from within by exploiting its benefits while simultaneously eroding the values and principles of the rules-based order.”

Rep. Mac Thornberry, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, has released a discussion draft of the legislation

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largely aimed at China’s regional overreach. According to the Texas Republican, “Senior officials from both parties, military commanders, and international security experts have told us for years that the Indo-Pacific must be this country’s priority theater. They are absolutely correct, and it is time to put our money where our mouth is.” The legislation calls for $6.09 billion in FY21 to be spent in the Indo-Pacific region on enhancing missile defense, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance programs, infrastructure, prepositioned equipment and munitions, logistics, training and exercises, and programs to strengthen the capacity of allied and partner countries. It builds on the White House budget request for the region, as well as additional requirements identified by combatant commanders, service secretaries, and the Indo-Pacific Command’s investment plan, delivered to Congress last month.

The draft bill identifies the specific resources the Pentagon would need to deter China, similar to what the European Deterrence Initiative has done for Europe against Russia. The bill would strengthen America’s current military strength in the area, and its ability to respond to future threats.

There is no equivalent to NATO in the Pacific, so the measure also includes a commitment to work with and strengthen regional allies. More than just a single year spending commitment, it seeks to establish on ongoing basis support for confronting the People’s Republic.

The soon-to-be proposed measures includes a number of specific proposals. It would improve air and missile defense systems on the key base in Guam, as well as providing Homeland Defense radars for Hawaii. Bombers would be provided, as well as submarine warfare equipment.

Photo: The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and the guided missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill travel in the Philippine Sea, March 18, 2020. (U.S. Navy)

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.