Tag: China in the Arctic

The American military is the finest fighting force ever assembled in world history. Yet that fact alone may not be sufficient to contain China’s global ambitions in the coming decade. If left unchecked by the world’s major powers, Beijing has the potential to outpace every other nation in acquiring, incorporating, and employing advanced offensive military technologies in its armed forces, in addition to its devious, long-term political strategies across the globe. Distinct from international norms, Beijing doesn’t self-constrain its behavior according to accepted standards such as “rule by law.” CCP actions go well beyond its decades-long mantra of the “ends justify the means” as it is apparent the means have become the end in themselves for President Xi Jinping and the senior communist leadership in Beijing. The Arctic region may be emerging as the latest example of a domain for the strategic great power rivalry between the US and China.

The reality the free world must recognize is that 21^st century China’s strategic vision is hegemonic and without respite even during the height of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Beijing continues aggressively expanding its offensive forces, upgrading the level of its military’s technological sophistication, and pushing the PLA out further from its shores. It uses various types of political, economic, and military power to cut out a space for itself around the world. China’s economic engagement in the Arctic, according to some political analysts, simply is a precursor to military strategic ambitions in the area similar to those it pursued in the South China Sea.

Although the country is over 900 miles from the Arctic Circle, Beijing has labeled itself a “near Arctic” nation and pursued representation on the Arctic Council, the high-level intergovernmental body made up of the eight Arctic nations with sovereignty over lands in the region. US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo rejected the terminology saying there are Arctic and non-Arctic states, but no third category exists. It has not stopped China from attempting to export its power and influence beyond East Asia.

Advances in underseas mining technology make the riches of the northern waters accessible and extremely lucrative. Combined with the potential for a shorter Northern Shipping Route, it illuminates some of the reasons behind why Beijing is acting so aggressively in the region. 

According to the Arctic Institute: “A preemptive or complete denial of China in the Arctic may be desirable but not feasible.” In response to Chinese adventurism there, the United States this week announced it is providing $12.1 million in an economic aid package to Greenland, a true Arctic nation with sovereign land in the region. The purpose of the aid is to strengthen American ties to the area and become the partner of choice. 

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The funds, along with Washington’s renewed interest in increasing its military presence above the Arctic Circle, is intended to slow China’s global ambitions. Earlier this week a senior State department official said in response to China’s challenge in the region that  “…across the globe… China’s soft-power tools often have a soft edge when deployed by the PRC.  It has weaponized its state capitalism in an effort to secure control of critical infrastructure such as ports and telecommunications networks.  It’s demonstrated a willingness to use coercion and influence operations and other methods to get what it wants, including in the Arctic.” 

It is romantic self-delusion when the west fails to deal effectively with communist China. Beijing wiggled its way into the Arctic using soft-power and promises of assistance with infrastructure development to increase tourism in the region. Global leaders need to recognize the PLA, under the direct command of the CCP elite, is following a plan which defines China’s strategic mission as a global one. The Arctic is one chapter in it.

China asserts its influence using hard and soft power in the Arctic, East Asia, Africa, Latin America…. and it is a quickly rising, powerful, regional hegemon over the South and East China Seas. The country is led by Xi Jinping, an authoritarian leader as influential as Mao or Deng Xiaoping. Secretary Pompeo says the greatest threat to the US is from Xi Jinping and that the US needs to make sure it has the ability to protect itself and oppose China’s bullying. American Arctic policy in 2020 is changing to meet that strategic goal.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: Infantrymen assigned to an armored regiment under the PLA Xinjiang Military Command operate their main battle tanks to set up a defensive position on snow-covered road (China Defence Ministry photo)

Daria Novak, a former U.S. State Department official with significant experience in Chinese affairs, authored this column. She writes each Friday on related topics.

China is the only nation preparing for the Transpolar Passage, which likely will be commercially viable in a few decades and cut straight through the North Pole. If there is only one season of open water the normally fifteen-foot thick, multi-year ice will upon refreezing be very thin in the following years, even if temperatures grow colder. Russia’s nuclear ice breakers will no longer be required to keep open the passage. And, the now open route will cut two to three weeks off a trip through the Suez Canal making a dramatic difference between loss and profit for China. It also will help its ships avoid passing through waters controlled by East African pirates and western-dominated choke points. But is the 30% shorter sea route and increased profit for China’s shipping industry the sole motive for making political investments in the Arctic? 

At the beginning of the 21^st century Chinese planners began to consider seriously a long-term governance role for the country in the Arctic region. Beijing’s strategists concluded that the prestige of being accepted as a global power and the military advantages of a polar route, along with the economic benefits offered by the shorter open Arctic sea route to Europe and the American east coast, outweighed any costs the country might incur. Beijing encouraged its enterprises to participate in the construction of infrastructure along the route, too, as it has in other areas of the world in which it was attempting to gain influence.

By 2006 Beijing had obtained observer status on the Arctic Council, the governing body run by the eight Arctic states, and soon after devised its formal “Polar Silk Road” strategy. The plan called for investing heavily in the infrastructure of the cash-starved Arctic nations. It enabled China to increase its access to Arctic political leaders and sign a series of energy and trade accords. China’s leaders even boldly attempted to buy a defunct US naval base from Greenland.

Advances in excavating technology opened the possibility of mining valuable undersea natural resources, including oil, natural gas, and rare earth minerals. Melting Arctic ice caps, at the same time, began extending the season for open water along the New Northern Route. This meant commercial viability for exporting more goods to Europe and eastern North America. By 2017 the first non-icebreaker ship traversed the route and a year later the Maersk Line sent one of its container ships through as a test. Western analysts believe the route will become commercially viable by 2040. 

From Beijing’s perspective, the opportunity appeared right around the corner and they acted well before the United States even had a policy in place. Last April was the first time the Department of Defense included a section on the Arctic in its annual report to Congress on China’s military power. Beijing willingly uses multilateral diplomatic channels, its economic resources, and scientific studies to justify its presence, assert its commercial rights, increase its physical presence, and to establish itself as a key player in an environmentally fragile and strategic area of the world far from its shores. 

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Desperately needed investment funds from China helped sway political leaders in Iceland and Greenland to support Beijing’s agenda. Last May Iceland’s foreign minister, the rotational head of the Arctic Council, announced his governing body was “working closely with all partners, inside as well as outside the region….” and that it is of the “utmost importance for prosperity and security in the Arctic region.” China’s influence continues expanding throughout the region although some countries are growing more concerned about its potentially disruptive role in the area. 

Behind closed doors China discussed aiding Greenland in its attempt to become independent from Denmark. Should this relationship strengthen further in the near future it could impede operations at the US base in Thule, Greenland, and pressure that country not to join NATO. If given access to deep-water ports near Thule, China could easily deploy its subs and operate stealthily along the east coast of the United States. China’s Northern Lights Institute in Greenland may already be in use by China tracking Western satellites and NATO airspace. 

China’s pattern of aggressively impeding free navigation of the seas in Asia does not bode well for the future of the Arctic Ocean in an era of great power competition. With a 400% increase in human activity in the Artic environment in recent years, and China’s lack of environmental stewardship, the already fragile area may suffer irreversible damage. 

Since 2014 Beijing has been expanding its military capability to defend its interests in the region. China’s geopolitical ambitions are vast and its policy long-term. As it expands its influence beyond Asia, the eight Arctic nations will be forced to decide how much power they are willing to abrogate to non-Arctic states. Beijing’s 2018 Arctic Policy calls for it to gain a more direct role in governance of the region and urges all Arctic stakeholders to share resources with non-Arctic states and non-state entities. China, if unchecked, could move from a strategy of war by other means to one of limited open conflict over the abundant natural resources in the Arctic and the military and economic benefits gained by controlling the new Transpolar Passage.

Photo: Xi Jingping, China’s leader (Official CPhoto)