China and AI – USA Gov Policy

Over the past several decades, America has enjoyed technological superiority over its military adversaries. That may not be the case moving forward.

According to the DIA, “within a decade, China and Russia’s militaries will be using data visualization, artificial intelligence, machine learning and possibly quantum encryption and communications. These tools are used to collect, analyze and secure data accurately and at high speeds. Both China and Russia realize that whoever can leverage the data and understands that can dominate. China already is moving rapidly ahead with digital advances.”

General Ashley cited the Chinese company Huawei’s Smart City Intelligent Operation Center, which is using big data, 5G, machine learning and AI to collect, monitor and analyze security, transportation and emergencies, and to track people.

In response, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency is attempting to improve American capabilities, noting that “The agency needs to ensure that its intelligence-sharing tool, the Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System, has adequate resourcing to ensure it remains secure, reliable and resilient.”

General Ashley described how the Machine-Assisted Analytic Rapid-Repository System, which is still in development, will become DIA’s database of the future, using cloud computing, AI and machine learning, automating many of the tasks currently done manually by operators.

The DIA believes that open-source intelligence will be used to a much greater extent. Open-source intelligence is data collected from publicly available sources. When combined with other intelligence data, it can provide a much more accurate intelligence picture that will further DIA’s mission of “providing intelligence on foreign militaries to prevent and decisively win wars.

In addition to systems, Ashley said, people are the agency’s foundational strength.

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People work best when they are on teams to use one another’s strengths, he said. DIA has organized analytic data teams composed of data scientists, tool developers, methodologists and all-source analysts to look at information and refine algorithms to get a more accurate intelligence picture.

Ashley emphasized that the DIA also needs to strengthen its teaming with allies and partners, Ashley said, notably data sharing. Currently, a brigade is pretty good at speed in sharing intelligence within the brigade, he said.

However, when it comes to sharing intelligence between brigades and between each of the military services, it slows down, he said. And, it’s even slower between allies and partners.

The DIA chief noted that “It took World War II to compel better information sharing between allies.” As an example, he used the example of how The U.S. cracked Japan’s Purple Encryption Machine early in the war. and the United Kingdom cracked the Enigma Machine used by the Germans. A decision was made at the very top for the two nations to share their work, and it probably shortened the war by two years. “It shouldn’t take another war like that to enable intelligence sharing,” Ashley said.

In 2017, the United Nations conducted a conference https://undocs.org/CCW/GGE.1/2017/3 aimed at establishing “an open-ended Group of Governmental Experts related to emerging technologies in the area of lethal autonomous weapons systems.” One conclusion reached was that “Responsibility for the deployment of any weapons system in armed conflict remains with States. States must ensure accountability for lethal action by any weapon system used by the State’s forces in armed conflict in accordance with applicable international law, in particular international humanitarian law. The human element in the use of lethal force should be further considered.”

If the past is any precedence, the introduction of this next phase of warfighting technology is inevitable. Considering the belligerence of its global adversaries, The United States needs to both take the lead in this technology, while insuring that appropriate human control and adequate safeguards are in place.

Photo: Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley Jr., the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)

Just as industrialization and the advent of flight and nuclear power dramatically changed warfare in the past, today’s cutting-edge technologies are altering how the world will fight in the future. America’s adversaries are making significant headway in this, much to the nation’s peril.

Science fiction readers may recognize some of the dangers from movies such as the famous “Terminator” series.

Army Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley Jr., the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), is clearly concerned. At a recent conference, he noted that “Within a decade, China and Russia’s militaries will be using data visualization, artificial intelligence, machine learning and possibly quantum encryption and communications. These tools are used to collect, analyze and secure data accurately and at high speeds. Both China and Russia realize that ‘whoever can leverage the data and understands that can dominate.’ China already is moving rapidly ahead with digital advances.”

Jayshree Pandya, writing for Forbes, believes that “In the competition to lead the emerging technology race and the futuristic warfare battleground, artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming the center of the global power play. As seen across many nations, the development in autonomous weapons system (AWS) is progressing rapidly, and this increase in the weaponization of artificial intelligence seems to have become a highly destabilizing development. It brings complex security challenges for not only each nation’s decision makers but also for the future of humanity… artificial intelligence is leading us toward a new algorithmic warfare battlefield that has no boundaries or borders, may or may not have humans involved, and will be impossible to understand and perhaps control across the human ecosystem in cyberspace, geospace, and space (CGS). As a result, the very idea of the weaponization of artificial intelligence, where a weapon system that, once activated across CGS, can select and engage human and non-human targets without further intervention by a human designer or operator, is causing great fear.”

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Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., writing for Breaking Defense, outlined how the Army War College is concerned about “What happens when Artificial Intelligence produces a war strategy too complex for human brains to understand? Do you trust the computer to guide your moves, like a traveler blindly following GPS? Or do you reject the plan and, with it, the potential for a strategy so smart it’s literally superhuman?…’ I’m not talking about killer robots,’ said Prof. Andrew Hill, the War College’s first-ever chair of strategic leadership, ‘The issue is what happens once humans start taking military advice — or even orders — from machines.’

“’I’m not talking about killer robots,’ said Prof. Andrew Hill, the War College’s first-ever chair of strategic leadership and one of the conference’s lead organizers, at the opening session. The Pentagon wants AI to assist human combatants, not replace them. The issue is what happens once humans start taking military advice — or even orders — from machines. The reality is this happens already, to some extent. Every time someone looks at a radar or sonar display, for example, they’ve counting on complicated software to correctly interpret a host of signals no human can see. The Aegis air and missile defense system on dozens of Navy warships recommends which targets to shoot down with which weapons, and if the human operators are overwhelmed, they can put Aegis on automatic and let it fire the interceptors itself. This mode is meant to stop massive salvos of incoming missiles but it could also shoot down manned aircraft. Now, Aegis isn’t artificial intelligence. It rigidly executes pre-written algorithms, without machine learning’s ability to improve itself. But it is a long-standing example of the kind of complex automation that is going to become more common as technology improves. While the US military won’t let a computer pull the trigger, it is developing target-recognition AI to go on everything from recon drones to tank gunsights to infantry goggles.”

The Report concludes tomorrow.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Election Day is Only the Beginning, Part 2

There is a stark contrast in foreign affairs between the Biden-Harris record of a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Putin invasion of Ukraine, China’s assault on the Philippine exclusive economic zone, and the widening Middle East catastrophe. The Trump White House archives provides a lengthy list of foreign policy results. “President Trump restored American sovereignty at home and American leadership abroad, partnering with strong and responsible nations to promote security, prosperity, and peace. Instead of sending American troops to fight in endless wars or giving cash to terrorists in countries like Iran, the United States under President Trump used bold, creative diplomacy to secure peace deals with our allies across the world. With the same “peace through strength” foreign policy that President Reagan once used to win the Cold War, President Trump rebuilt American deterrence power to hold our adversaries accountable. Perhaps most important, the Trump Administration reversed Washington’s decades-long, bipartisan refusal to confront China over its unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and more. Specifically, the Trump Administration: “Secured a $400 billion increase in defense spending from NATO allies by 2024, as the number of members meeting their minimum financial obligations more than doubled Credited by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for strengthening NATO Worked to reform and streamline the United Nations and reduced spending by $1.3 billion Allies, including Japan and the Republic of Korea, committed to increase burden-sharing Protected our Second Amendment rights by announcing that the United States will never ratify the UN Arms Trade Treaty Returned 56 hostages and detainees from more than 24 countries Worked to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific region, promoting new investments and expanding American partnerships Advanced peace through strength Withdrew from the one-sided Iran Nuclear Deal and imposed crippling sanctions on the Iranian regime Conducted vigorous enforcement on all sanctions to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero and deny the regime its principal source of revenue First president to meet with a leader of North Korea and the first sitting president to cross the demilitarized zone into North Korea Maintained a maximum pressure campaign and enforced tough sanctions on North Korea while negotiating denuclearization, the release of American hostages, and the return of the remains of American heroes Brokered economic normalization between Serbia and Kosovo, bolstering peace in the Balkans Signed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act and ended the United States’ preferential treatment with Hong Kong to hold China accountable for its infringement on the autonomy of Hong Kong Led allied efforts to defeat the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to control the international telecommunications system Recognized Jerusalem as the true capital of Israel and quickly moved the American Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem Acknowledged Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights and declared that Israeli settlements in the West Bank are not inconsistent with international law Removed the United States from the United Nations Human Rights Council due to the group’s blatant anti-Israel bias Brokered historic peace agreements between Israel and Arab-Muslim countries, including the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, and Sudan Brokered a deal for Kosovo to normalize ties and establish diplomatic relations with Israel Announced that Serbia would move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem First American president to address an assembly of leaders from more than 50 Muslim nations, reaching an agreement to fight terrorism in all its forms Established the Etidal Center to combat terrorism in the Middle East in conjunction with the Saudi Arabian government Announced the Vision for Peace Political Plan—a two-state solution that resolves the risks of Palestinian statehood to Israel’s security, marking the first time Israel has agreed to a map and a Palestinian state Released an economic plan to empower the Palestinian people and enhance Palestinian governance through historic private investment Reversed the previous administration’s Cuba policy, canceling the sellout deal with the Communist Castro dictatorship Pledged not to lift sanctions until all political prisoners are freed, freedoms of assembly and expression are respected, all political parties are legalized, and free elections are scheduled Enacted a new policy aimed at preventing American dollars from funding the Cuban regime, including stricter travel restrictions and restrictions on the importation of Cuban alcohol and tobacco Implemented a cap on remittances to Cuba Enabled Americans to file lawsuits against persons and entities that traffic in property confiscated by the Cuban regime First world leader to recognize Juan Guaido as the Interim President of Venezuela and led a diplomatic coalition against the Socialist Dictator of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro Blocked all property of the Venezuelan government in the jurisdiction of the United States Cut off the financial resources of the Maduro regime and sanctioned key sectors of the Venezuelan economy exploited by the regime Brought criminal charges against Nicolas Maduro for his narco-terrorism Imposed stiff sanctions on the Ortega regime in Nicaragua Photo: Trump site