candidates – USA Gov Policy

The entry of Beto O’Rourke into the 2020 Democrat presidential contest is actually more significant than it appears at first.

Robert Francis O’Rourke’s career in public life is noted more for his success in getting elected (or, in the case of his recent Senate campaign against incumbent Ted Cruz, nearly getting elected) than for what he did once he attained office. His three terms in the House of Representatives were not distinguished by any particular legislative activity. He has not taken any particularly noteworthy or innovative positions on the issues facing the nation, other than agreeing with some of the more general positions his party has clung to. He has been somewhat vague discussing his views. In an important Washington Post interview, he responded with calls for debates and discussions rather than offering his views on what appropriate actions or solutions should be.

But O’Rourke typifies the type of candidate the media loves to tout. He is young, reasonably attractive (some say his appearance and mannerisms are reminiscent of Robert Kennedy) and has the quirks and habits that play well on television. He plays guitar, skateboards, and is very digital-savvy (He started a software company, and it has been said that he was a member of a key hacker group.) Those who been attracted to him have been quite enthusiastic. His website even includes a “shop” where one can purchase Beto apparel and other items.

He has, as did Barack Obama in his first presidential bid, sought to cast a wide net for support, “We’re all in this together” reads the headline on his campaign web site. In a New York Times interview Michelle Goldberg notes that during his losing Senate run, “It was uncanny how much the candidate recalled Barack Obama circa 2008, and not just because of his gawky magnetism. Like Obama, O’Rourke is unapologetically progressive but offers a vision of post-partisan national unity.” The Wall Street Journal describes him as “…the fresh, elusive outsider like Carter, Clinton and Obama… Part of Mr. O’Rourke’s appeal is that he can relate to the whims and angst of youth. He played in a punk-rock band while attending Columbia University and after graduating worked itinerant jobs from a live-in nanny to an art mover. He eventually returned home to El Paso where he started a software business and ran for city council.”

In the Democrat field that increasingly drifts towards extremism, anti-religious bigotry and the support of socialism which has wrought devastation wherever it has been implemented, he stands out not so much for what he says but for what he doesn’t say.

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Far too often, candidates who lack a distinguished record in public service, elected office (other than actually getting elected) or the private sector, and who fail to offer any practical suggestions on the challenges facing the nation, are rising to high levels of prominence in U.S. politics.

Included in that list of “lacks” is a disturbing acceptance of sheer ignorance. One may agree or disagree with the hard-left positions of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) but it is hard to hide the fact that her low font of knowledge is truly troubling. She is, however, young, attractive, and has a certain charisma.

In essence, the qualities that the media favors and dwells on are not those necessary for good leadership, but those that make fun reading or reporting, or, in social-media terms, good “click-bait.” A distinct lack of knowledge, even the advocacy of truly mistaken and dangerous ideas such as socialism and anti-Semitism, are overlooked if the candidate is “cool.”

The fact is, politics in 2019 America are beginning to resemble those more common to high-school elections of Prom Kings and Queens than U.S. Commanders-in-Chiefs.

Illustration: Beto O’Rourke official portrait

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.