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Middle Class Jobs Continue to Lag

Nonfarm payroll employment gains were 160,000 in April according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a drop of 40,000 from the prior three month average. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and financial activities, while mining employment continued to decline.

The reason for the decline in the U.S. economy and the continuing problem in the American balance of trade can be gleaned from delving into the areas that continue to be the weakest. Manufacturing employment changed little in April (+4,000), after losing 45,000 jobs over the prior 2 months. Mining employment continued to decline in April (-7,000). The industry has lost 191,000 jobs since a recent peak in September 2014. More than three-fourths of the job losses over this period have been in support activities for mining.

Middle income jobs are suffering. A jobs market that is based on health care, retail, and consulting services produces little that can be exported.

While the White House continues to tout an unemployment rate of 5%, the reality is far different.  The number is made artificially low by the declining number of Americans in the workforce (a four decade low) and it fails to reflect that a substantial number of jobs created are low-paying or part time positions that replace full time, lost middle income jobs. Additionally, a worrisome large number of the unemployed, 25.7%, have been unemployed for a prolonged period.

Among the employed, the number working part time for economic reasons, also referred to as involuntary part-time workers, was 6.0 million in April. This measure has shown little movement since November. (Involuntary part-time workers are those who would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work.)

Reuters reports that “Manufacturing’s job problem undercuts hopeful forecasts that U.S. companies would bring significant numbers of jobs back from overseas. That’s simply not happening to a degree sufficient to offset the continuing exodus of work and suggest deeper problems roiling factory floors…The slowdown in oil and gas has radiated deep into the economy and huge cuts by heavy equipment and farm machinery manufacturers are battering thousands of smaller suppliers across the industrial belt….the downturn has spread gloom across the U.S. industrial heartland…many Midwest manufacturers say they are as disillusioned with Washington’s view of the economy as their hourly workers.”
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While manufacturing jobs had been declining for several decades, the dramatic downward slide can be traced to President Clinton’s allowing China off the hook from yearly reviews of its policies.

It is deeply frustrating that the current employment crisis in middle income jobs is not just  the temporary result of a cyclical downturn.  It is the direct result of the White House’s tax and environmental policies. Taxes for U.S. corporations are the highest in the developed world, which encourages companies to move their jobs overseas. The Obama Administration’s regulatory tidal wave, especially those designed to destroy the coal industry, have targeted not only a large number of jobs, but also some of the best paying middle income jobs in the economy.

CNS  notes that “Over the course of the 86 full months that President Barack Obama has completed serving in the White House—from February 2009 through March 2016–the U.S. Treasury has collected approximately $18,764,164,000,000 in tax revenues (in non-inflation-adjusted dollars), according to the Monthly Treasury Statements issued during that period…That equals approximately $124,003 for each of the 151,320,000 persons who, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, had either a full- or part-time job during March 2016. During the same 86-month stretch of the Obama presidency, the total debt of the federal government increased from $10,632,005,246,736.97 to $19,264,938,619,643.07, according to the Treasury. That is an increase in the debt of $8,632,933,372,906.10—or approximately $57,051 for each of the 151,320,000 people with jobs as of March.

HotAir reports that there is “visceral disgust” for Obama’s environmental policies in the Appalachian counties… West Virginia…energy costs are expected to go up 40 percent under Obama’s Clean Power Plan (CPP), which sets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 32 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels. It’s a regulatory nightmare, a job killer, and a policy that Hillary Clinton plans to continue if she’s elected.”

Investors.com believes that Obama’s “policies have made it harder than ever for manufacturers to hire…New Environmental Protection Agency regulations to slash carbon emissions 30% by 2030 will have a devastating effect on factory jobs. A study by the Heritage Foundation found that this regulation by itself would cost each American $7,000 in income while killing 500,000 factory jobs and 45% of all coal-industry jobs. Then there’s the just-released ozone standards, also from the EPA’s job-killing policy shop. A study by NERA Economic Consulting for the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) estimated a $140 billion hit to GDP and as many as 1.4 million jobs lost each year. Since Obama took office, thousands of new regulations have gone into effect. In 2012, regulation cost the U.S. economy about $2 trillion, or 12% of GDP. And manufacturers have been hit hardest. The average factory today spends $19,564 per worker to comply with regulations. For small manufacturers, it’s bigger: $34,671 per worker.”

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U.S. Economy Spirals Downward

A significant trinity of bad economic news  has come to light as April winds to a close. GDP growth is grinding to a halt, gross job gains have decreased, and the rate of homeownership has fallen again, hitting a 48 year low. Add to those numbers the news from early April that the American balance of trade worsened by $47.1 billion, and there can be little doubt that the U.S. economy is in a serious downward spiral.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis  announced that growth in the already depressed real gross domestic product — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes, came to a near halt at a 0.5% annual rate of increase in the first quarter of 2016.This follows the dismal rate of 1.4% in the final quarter of 2015.

The employment picture presented its own bad news. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics  latest release, “From June 2015 to September 2015, gross job gains from opening and expanding private sector establishments were 7.3 million, a decrease of 262,000 jobs from the previous quarter…Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private sector establishments were 6.9 million, an increase of 149,000 jobs from the previous quarter.”

Although the White House readily discusses the unemployment statistic known as the U-3, which has been reduced, the more accurate indicator, known as the U-6, is far higher at 9.8%. Even this number doesn’t present a thorough picture, since there are factors it excludes, as well.

The labor force participation rate has fallen from 65.7% in January, 2009 when President Obama took office, to the latest figure of 63%.  Of the comparatively few jobs created, far too many are in low-paying occupations.  Many White House policies will make that problem even worse. President Obama’s scientifically unsound environmental policies to sharply reduce the use of some forms of energy directly impact a source of well-paying jobs.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics  notes that “Manufacturing industries with the highest wages for production occupations included petroleum and coal products manufacturing ($62,140) and basic chemical manufacturing ($55,230).”

The patient may also talk with their doctor so that they can get the best medicine for all those people who lost their canadian generic cialis browse around for source interest in their work. viagra on line purchase The medical experts ensure that smoking can do only bad for you smoking volume and if you are not able to have pleasure with your wife, then you can resort to Kamagra. Chiropractic therapy will also help in reducing the labor and delivery time. check for more cheapest tadalafil online Acute Gastritis: Acute gastritis is a sudden inflammation cost of viagra pill of the lining of the stomach. What else has caused the poor employment picture? Corporations are leaving the U.S., and taking jobs with them. The reason for the downward spiral is neither the aftermath of the recession nor the results of cyclical economic period.  It is the specific result of both existing policies that literally drive employers offshore, as well as a hostile regulatory environment.

The U.S. has the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world. Bloomberg  notes that “The U.S. corporate income tax rate, 35 percent, is the highest in the developed world. The U.S. is also one of the few countries that makes its companies pay that rate on all their worldwide income…More than 50 U.S. companies have reincorporated in low-tax countries since 1982, including more than 20 since 2012.”

Ed Rogers, writing in the Washington Post, notes: “I don’t think there has been a president in my lifetime who has been more hostile to business than Obama. I could be corrected, but I don’t think anyone in the president’s Cabinet has ever started a business, and I would doubt that many of his senior staffers have either. At the end of the day, Obama doesn’t seem to have much respect for what it takes to start a business. And this cratering in the number of start-ups under his administration reminds us of the gratuitous smackdown he gave business owners everywhere during the 2012 campaign when he pointedly said, “If you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that.”

The U.S. has declined in the Index of Economic Freedom  which notes: Americans continue to lose economic freedom. Following declines in seven of the past eight years, the United States this year has equaled its worst score ever in the Index of Economic Freedom. Ratings for labor freedom, business freedom, and fiscal freedom have flagged notably, and the regulatory burden is increasingly costly… America’s historically vibrant entrepreneurial growth is significantly hampered by intrusive, expensive, and often ineffective government policies in areas ranging from health care to energy to education. Government favoritism toward entrenched interests has hurt innovation and contributed to a lackluster recovery and stagnant income growth… The regulatory burden continues to increase. Over 180 new major federal regulations have been imposed on business operations since early 2009 with estimated annual costs of nearly $80 billion.”

Finally, The Census Bureau reports that home ownership rates have dropped to a 48 year low. In 2009, when President Obama took office, home ownership stood at 67.3%.  The latest figure is 63.5%.

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U.S. Balance of Trade Worsens

In what has become a trend for the Obama Administration, a serious problem has been given a deceptively positive spin.

Despite disturbing news that the U.S. Balance of Trade has again worsened, Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker ignored the overall deficit, overlooked the rise in imports, and focused on the smaller increase in exports, stating:

“The increase in February exports show that despite facing global headwinds, U.S. exporters remain committed to delivering their world-class products and services to consumers around the world…”

The Commerce Department revealed that the goods and services deficit—the U.S. Balance of Trade  has worsened yet again, to a degree even more than experts had anticipated.

The latest figures show that the trade deficit in February was the largest in six months at $47.1 billion, up $1.2 billion from $45.9 billion in January. Imports were $225.1 billion, $3.0 billion more than January, while exports were $178.1 billion, $1.8 billion more than January.

The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $64.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $17.7 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $10.8 billion, or 13.1 percent, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $20.5 billion or 5.5 percent. Imports decreased $9.7 billion or 2.1 percent.

The Reuters news agency had polled economists, who had incorrectly forecast the trade deficit rising to “only” $46.2 billion in February. “But when adjusted for inflation, the deficit rose to $63.3 billion, the largest since March last year, from $61.8 billion in January. The report joined data on consumer and business spending in suggesting that economic growth moderated further in the first quarter after slowing to a 1.4 percent annualized rate in the final three months of 2015. Growth estimates for the first quarter are currently below a 1 percent pace…exports of industrial supplies and materials were the lowest since March 2010. Capital goods exports hit their lowest level since November 2011. Petroleum exports fell to their lowest level since September 2010.”
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Trading Economics  reports that “In recent years, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with China, Japan, Germany and Mexico.” Investopedia  notes that “The US’s trade deficit is not only larger than Germany’s surplus, it’s larger by an amount greater than the next largest trade deficit in the world, that of the UK.”

The problem has been growing for some time. In 2007, the St. Louis Federal Reserve has noted   that “For every dollar Americans spend on Chinese goods, Chinese spend 30 or fewer cents on American goods. China currently holds a total of $3.7 trillion in foreign reserves, mostly in U.S. dollars or U.S. government bonds. “

A Forbes analysis of why key government and financial figures haven’t moved to effectively address the crisis notes:

“Normally trade deficits are self-correcting because as the deficit grows the country’s currency usually begins to decline in price in the world market. … In the case of America this balance is not happening because many of our trading partners have figured out how to manipulate their currencies to keep the dollar value high so that they can continue to increase our imports. China and Japan are the biggest manipulators but Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland, Singapore and Malaysia are also currency manipulators…Why is the trade deficit largely ignored while everyone is more concerned about the federal deficit? Wall Street, the Multi-national corporations and the Obama Administration have adopted a policy of appeasement where foreign mercantilism seems to be irrelevant and attempts at balancing trade are ignored. It is as if the trade deficit is an open ended charge account that is simply an accounting summary that will never have to be paid back.”

In 2005, economist Paul Krugman warned: “We can run huge deficits for the time being, because foreigners— in particular, foreign governments— are willing to lend us huge sums. But one of these days the easy credit will come to an end, and the United States will have to start paying its way in the world economy.”

The bad news doesn’t end with trade numbers, or unemployment numbers.  The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta  reports that “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 5, down from 0.7 percent on April 1.”

Despite the trinity of bad news, including trade, unemployment, and GDP, combined with the astronomical increase in the federal debt during his tenure, there is no indication that President Obama is changing his fiscal policies.

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Fundamental Weakness in U.S. Economy

There is growing evidence that the fundamental underpinnings of the U.S. economy are weak.

The indicators are significant.  The Federal Reserve  reports that Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in December. The decrease for total industrial production in November was larger than previously reported. For the fourth quarter as a whole, industrial production fell at an annual rate of 3.4 percent. Manufacturing output edged down in December. Mining production decreased 0.8 percent in December for its fourth consecutive monthly decline. At 106.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in December was 1.8 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.4 percentage point in December to 76.5 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis disclosed that the latest numbers for the U.S. Balance of Trade in goods and services indicated a deficit of $42.4 billion, meaning that foreign nations sold far more to the U.S. than America sold to them. “Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $25.2 billion, or 5.5 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $99.0 billion or 4.6 percent. Imports decreased $73.7 billion or 2.8 percent…Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.2 billion from the three months ending in November 2014.

The poor performance of the economy is reflected in the jobs picture. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the seasonally adjusted number of Americans 16 and over filing for unemployment in Dec. 0f 2014 was 147,190, but in December of 2015, it was 149,929. In addition, initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 in the January 10—January 16 period, the highest level in half a year.  Marketwatch notes that “initial claims have risen more than 14% after touching a post-recession low of 256,000 in early October.”

Writing in the Washington Times, Donald Lambro warns that the U.S. is headed for another recession.  “Much of the major economic data suggests we’re moving in that direction…Clearly our economy is slowing down and economists are forecasting that fourth quarter growth in 2015 will be down significantly…All the telltale signs are there. Consumers aren’t buying as they used to, even with rock bottom oil prices and a gas tank of regular costing less than $2 a gallon. Yet retail sales fell in December at the height of the Christmas buying season. A New York Times headline last week put it this way: ‘Retail Sales Were Lackluster in December, Signaling Fragile Economy.’

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Bloomberg notes that “Investment managers are warning that markets probably have further to fall …The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will drop another 10 percent to 1,650.” That projected is mirrored by the International Business Times  Projections for 2016 are cloudy, with some prominent economists warning of an imminent U.S. recession and others predicting smooth sailing ahead.”

There is little reason to believe that direct Washington spending can or will stimulate the economy.  President Obama’s $831 billion stimulus package–The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009—accomplished little, and the nearly bankrupt federal government doesn’t have the resources for another attempt. The national debt, which skyrocketed under the Obama Administration, is nearing $19 trillion, and will grow even larger. The Congressional Budget Office  predicts that the federal budget will also be severely stressed in the coming year. “In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase… If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years… Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level.”

The central question is how the generally robust American economy descended to its current condition, and why it continues to exhibit weakness. Similar to the 2007 recession, which was caused by decades of a misguided government legislation  that mandated high-risk loans which eventually caused serious harm to key financial institutions, the looming—perhaps better described as ongoing– crisis results from federal policies.

American employers face severe disadvantages. Tax rates are the highest of any developed nation, and regulations are more extreme. Bad trade deals continue to allow nations to sell relatively unhindered to U.S. consumers, while Washington does little to address discriminatory treatment of American productions sold overseas. In many cases, the intellectual property produced in the U.S., including software, entertainment features, and new/advanced technological techniques and goods are outright stolen through industrial espionage and other means, with little response from the U.S. government.

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U.S. Economy Ends 2015 in Slump

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports that economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the second consecutive month. The Wall Street Journal notes that “U.S. factories are in their worst slump since 2009.” Manufacturing accounts for about 12% of the U.S. economy, but its impact on middle-class employment and the U.S. balance of trade is even greater.

While U.S. manufacturing had declined before 2000, the precipitous drop, and its dire impact on the U.S. balance of trade and middle-class employment, had its origins in President Clinton’s allowing China to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The Manufacturing News notes that “Since 2000, the trade deficit with China has surged by 173 percent, from $83 billion in 2000 to $227 billion in 2009. The United States has lost more than one-third of all its manufacturing jobs — 5.6 million; U.S. wages have declined; the country has suffered a financial meltdown; it has spent $14 trillion on economic stimulus, only to experience the highest unemployment rates in generations and annual federal budget deficits of more than $1 trillion.”

Speaking about the manufacturing sector, ISM’s chair Bradley J. Holcomb reported that “The December PMI® registered 48.2 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the November reading of 48.6 percent. …The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, 3.2 percentage points below the November reading of 51.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 33.5 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the November reading of 35.5 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the 14th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 51 percent, up 3.5 percentage points from the November reading of 47.5 percent and the Imports Index registered 45.5 percent, down 3.5 percentage points from the November reading of 49 percent. As was the case in November, 10 out of 18 manufacturing industries reported contraction in December. Contraction in new orders, production, employment and raw materials inventories accounted for the overall softness in December.”

ISM reports that of the 18 manufacturing industries, six are reporting growth in December in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting contraction in December — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

 

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“But there is another big factor that is not often mentioned and has a huge effect on both the manufacturing sector and jobs. That factor is the growing trade deficit which is really the ultimate determinant of job creation in the U.S.

“Dan Dimicco, chairman emeritus of Nucor Corporation…says in 2013, net trade subtracted about 3% from our economy (because imports exceeded exports). This shrinkage is cumulative, compounding year after year.” In the case of America we have had trade deficits for 39 years and it is now more than an $8 trillion debt. But why isn’t the government, Wall Street, multinational corporations, and many pundits and bloggers worried about the growing trade deficit? Why is the trade deficit largely ignored while everyone is more concerned about the federal deficit? Wall Street, the Multi-national corporations and the Obama Administration have adopted a policy of appeasement where foreign mercantilism seems to be irrelevant and attempts at balancing trade are ignored. It is as if the trade deficit is an open ended charge account that is simply an accounting summary that will never have to be paid back. All of our trading partners (competitors) understand trade deficits and they do something about them.”

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta  also issued disappointing news, noting that “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.7 percent on January 4, down from 1.3 percent on December 23. The forecast for the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell 0.1 percentage points to -0.4 percentage points on December 29 after the U.S. Census Bureau’s advance report on international trade in goods. “

Overall, according to the December report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis :

“The goods and services deficit for the whole U.S. economy was $43.9 billion in October, up $1.4 billion from $42.5 billion in September, revised. October exports were $184.1 billion, $2.7 billion less than September exports. October imports were $228.0 billion, $1.3 billion less than September imports. The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $2.1 billion to $63.1 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $19.2 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $22.2 billion, or 5.3 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $84.7 billion or 4.3 percent. Imports decreased $62.5 billion or 2.6 percent.”

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The failed recovery

Six and one half years after the end of the “Great Recession,” the U.S. economy remains in the doldrums. Legitimate questions about the economic policies of the White House, and the apparent waste of over $720 million in “stimulus” funds, as well as the near doubling of the national debt, abound.

According to data from the World Bank America’s GDP growth rate in 2014 was 2.4%. In 2013, the Council on Foreign Relations noted that the “recovery” from the 2007-2008 recession was “the weakest of the post–World War II era.”

The Wall Street Journal concurs. “During the postwar period up to the current recession (1947-2007), the average annual growth rate for the U.S. was 3.4%. The last three decades have experienced somewhat slower growth than the earlier periods, but even in the period 1977-2007, the average growth rate was 3%… Contrast this weak growth with the recovery that followed the other large recession of recent decades. In the early 1980s, the economy experienced a double-dip recession, with contractions in both 1980 and ’82. But growth rates in the subsequent two years averaged almost 6%. The high growth that persisted throughout the 1980s brought the economy quickly back to the trend line. Unlike the current period, from 1983 on, the economy was in rapid catch-up mode and eventually regained all that had been lost during the early ’80s.

“Indeed, that was the expectation. As economist Victor Zarnowitz of the University of Chicago argued many years ago, the strength of the recovery is related to the depth of the recession. Big recessions are followed by robust recoveries, presumably because more idle resources are available to be tapped. Unfortunately, the current post-recession period has not followed the pattern.”

The Washington Post  has noted that “it took less than a year for America’s factory output to rebound from the 1991 recession. It took 3½ years to bounce back from the 2001 recession. Now, six years clear of the Great Recession, manufacturing output still hasn’t returned to the pre-crisis levels it reached in 2007, according to revised economic data from the Federal Reserve. The downward revisions highlight the persistent weakness in a sector that President Obama has long called crucial to the health of the U.S. economy and the fate of the middle class. They track with the continued disappointing employment numbers for manufacturing, which since January 2013 has added fewer than half of the 1 million jobs that Obama promised the sector would create in his second term. And they appear to reflect a deeper-than-previously-thought hit to defense and aerospace manufacturing as the result of Pentagon cuts and deficit-reduction measures Obama and Congress agreed to several years ago.”

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According to the Institute for Supply Management, (ISM)  Last month brought some disappointing statistics for the U.S. economy. In the Non-manufacturing business sector, activity decreased 4.8% in November. The New Orders Index fell 4.5 percentage points. The Employment Index decreased 4.2 percentage points. The Prices Index increased 1.2 percentage points.  Five industries reporting a reduction in employment in November, including: Mining; Utilities; Other Services; Construction; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

The New Export Orders Index for November registered 49.5 percent, which is 5 percentage points lower than October. The latest balance of trade figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,  released in September, disclosed that the goods and services deficit was $40.8 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $14.9 billion, or 3.9 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $66.3 billion or 3.8 percent. Imports decreased $51.3 billion or 2.4 percent.

The Institute for Supply Management  (ISM)  also reports that “Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time in 36 months, [decreasing] 1.5 percentage points from the October reading… The New Orders Index registered 48.9 percent, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the reading of 52.9 percent in October. The Production Index registered 49.2 percent, 3.7 percentage points below the October reading of 52.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 51.3 percent, 3.7 percentage points above the October reading of 47.6 percent. The Prices Index registered 35.5 percent, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the October reading of 39 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the 13th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 47.5 percent, unchanged from October, and the Imports Index registered 49 percent, up 2 percentage points from the October reading of 47 percent. Ten out of 18 manufacturing industries reported contraction in November, with lower new orders, production and raw materials inventories accounting for the overall softness in November…

“Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five are reporting growth in November in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 10 industries reporting contraction in November — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.”

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Latest industrial downturn threatens U.S. economy

For the struggling American economy, the latest manufacturing news has come as a serious (and little noted in the general media) blow.

The Federal Reserve’s October report on industrial production and capacity utilization reveals that “Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in September after edging down 0.1 percent in August… In September, manufacturing output moved down 0.1 percent for a second consecutive monthly decrease… Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.3 percentage point in September to 77.5 percent, a rate that is 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.”

The impact on jobs has been obviously detrimental. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the manufacturing sector lost 17,000 jobs in August. The impact of America’s highest-in-the-developed world corporate taxes, and the ever-increasing environmental regulations can’t be overstated.

A manufacturing industry trade association asked “Will the Obama Administration hold China accountable for cheating, or instead offer even more concessions …Will the Federal Reserve raise rates, which could make our exports less competitive? Will China and other Asian economies continue their path of devaluing currencies? …Manufacturing is more exposed to the global economy than other sectors, so those policy interventions are critically important.”

As the New York Analysis of Policy and Government previously reported, “The crisis has its antecedents long before President Obama took office, during the tenure of President Clinton.

“In October 0f 2000, Clinton signed legislation granting permanent normal trade relations to China. The measure had been bitterly opposed by conservatives, human rights groups, and unions. The move was consistent with his controversial policy of enhancing relations with Beijing, which included selling China supercomputers and nuclear technology.  The moves are now seen as playing a significant role in building China’s sophisticated and aggressive military.

While the first step of good medical practice is to alter controllable risk factors (such as smoking, obesity, and alcohol abuse; stress, fatigue, depression; the adjustment of prescription medications etc.), most patients with male impotence will need an additional form of treatment. viagra for uk wholesale sildenafil Results won’t take too long to show. Following the natural ways of managing ED effectively – Panax Ginseng, also called red ginseng, has been found to be safe and effective for the treatment of premature ejaculation. levitra cost of sales unica-web.com Due to mount in cialis cheap uk blood in male organ is responsible for rigidity that provides men healthy erection during love-making acts. “The change in U.S. trade policy eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. In addressing the issue, the Federal Reserve notes: ‘Our estimates reveal a negative and statistically significant relationship between the change in U.S. policy and subsequent growth in manufacturing…We find that U.S. imports of the goods most affected by the policy change increase substantially after 2001, and that this growth is driven by imports from China.’”

Alan Uke, in his study “Buying America Back,” points out:

“The equation is simple: steady employment instigates and enables spending; spending bolsters the economy—but only if a proportion of that money stays in our country…in recent years, a staggering increase in the quantity of products we import to the United States has suffocated our domestic manufacturing industry.  As an example, in 1960, 8% of the manufactured consumer products Americans purchased were imported. Today, that number has drown to an astonishing 60%!  Yet, forty years ago, when imports were less prevalent here and our country was a world leader in manufacturing, we had the world’s highest standard of living.  We no longer do.  In just four short decades since then our buying power has stagnated and the working middle class is barely treading water.”

The Alliance for American Manufacturing summarizes the crisis in this way:

“Long before the collapse of the U.S. investment banking system in 2008, once-dominant and important U.S. industries like semiconductors, machine tools, printed circuit boards, consumer electronics, auto parts, appliances, furniture, clothing, telecommunications equipment, home furnishings, and many others suffered their own economic collapse, sputtering anemically in a global economic system that continues to be stacked against U.S.-based producers…

“With the U.S. government plunging deeper into debt by trillions of dollars, it now becomes imperative for the United States to ensure that the industrial sector regains its strength and that the nation becomes an exporting juggernaut.  In order to avert a slide into economic depression, the United States will have to stop going deeper into debt to pay off its bad debts. The country must restart its industrial engine and produce products that Americans need to buy and the world demands.  If this does not happen, a federal government bankruptcy could dwarf the financial industry collapse of 2008…The mindset among America’s economic elite—that the country does not need an industrial base—has put the country and the world economy in a ditch.”

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New trade deal increases concern over weak export/import balance, & employment numbers

The deal that has been reached on the Transpacific Partnership bill (TPP) bill could not have come at a worse time for supporters of the international agreement.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is an agreement to establish a free-trade zone among 12 nations around the Pacific. Unfortunately, all of its provisions have not been made available for public review. It has been criticized for being a “living” deal, which could “evolve,” without input from the American people.

The White House  maintains that ““TPP will also raise labor standards across our trading partners and help raise wages here at home. That’s because enforceable requirements on minimum wages, hours of work, and occupational safety and health are at the center of the agreement. And that’s because trade jobs are good jobs, paying up to 18 percent more on average than non-trade jobs.”

Many have raised concerns that the measure will, similar to criticism of prior international trade deals, harm both employment opportunities for U.S. citizens and result in further damage to the weak balance of trade for American businesses.  Roughly similar but smaller international agreements in the past have failed to produce any benefits for U.S. workers or enterprises.

These fears have been exacerbated by statistics released this month by the federal government. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis :

“…the goods and services deficit was $48.3 billion in August, up $6.5 billion. from $41.8 billion in July, revised. August exports were $185.1 billion, $3.7 billion less than July exports. August imports were $233.4 billion, $2.8 billion more than July imports. The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.6 billion to $67.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.6 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $17.6 billion, or 5.2 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $58.9 billion or 3.8 percent. Imports decreased $41.3billion or 2.2 percent.

Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages

 The average goods and services deficit increased $1.9 billion to $45.1 billion for the three months ending in August.

  • Average exports of goods and services decreased $0.9 billion to $187.2 billion in August.
  • Average imports of goods and services increased $1.0 billion to $232.3 billion in August.

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Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $3.4 billion from the three months ending in August 2014.

  • Average exports of goods and services decreased $9.4 billion from August 2014.
  • Average imports of goods and services decreased $6.0 billion from August 2014.

Exports

Exports of goods decreased $4.1 billion to $124.5 billion in August. Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $4.0 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $2.2 billion.
  • Fuel oil decreased $0.6 billion.
  • Plastic materials decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Crude oil decreased $0.2 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.”

At the same time, and not unrelated, the release of the latest unemployment report (see the recent New York Analysis of Policy & Government article)  reveals the following unemployment rates:

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.7 percent),adult women, teenagers (16.3 percent), whites (4.4 percent), blacks (9.2 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (6.4 percent) showed little or no change in September. The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 268,000 to 2.4 million in September, partially offsetting a decline in August. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.1 million in September and accounted for 26.6 percent of the unemployed. The civilian labor force participation rate declined to 62.4 percent in September; the rate had been 62.6 percent for the prior 3 months. The employment-population ratio edged down to 59.2 percent in September, after showing little movement for the first 8 months of the year.” In addition, hourly wages declined.  In a worrisome note, the August numbers were revised downward, something that generally happens only during a recession.”

Both conservatives and liberals disagree with the President’s optimistic contention. The Washington Post reports that Democrat presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) has  “slammed the deal, saying that “Wall Street and other big corporations have won again. Republican front-runner Donald Trump tweeted [stated] on Monday: ‘The incompetence of our current administration is beyond comprehension. TPP is a terrible deal.’ And Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has hedged on the TPP pact, despite having supported it while serving as Obama’s secretary of state.”

Senator Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama) states that “The White House still refuses to answer even the most basic questions about [the TPP]. These are the questions the White House will not answer:

  • Will it increase or reduce the trade deficit, and by how much?
  • Will it increase or reduce employment and wages, and by how much?
  • Will you make the “living agreement” section public and explain fully its implications?
  • Will China be added to the TPP?
  • Will you pledge not to issue any executive actions, or enter into any future agreements, impacting the flow of foreign workers into the United States?”

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U.S. GDP Decreases

Deeply worrisome figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm reveal that America’s Real Gross Domestic Product –the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015. Current-dollar GDP — the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States — decreased 0.9 percent, or $38.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $17,665.0 billion.

A review of the nature of the downturn is even more troubling. Two core economic functions vital to the long term health of the American economy, including exports (Exports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent in the first quarter, while real imports of goods and services increased 5.6 percent.) and nonresidential fixed investments (which decreased by 2.8%)  played a key role. Another less basic function included a decrease in state and local government spending, which was offset by an increase in federal spending.

The reasons for America’s ongoing economic slide are not difficult to discern. It is clear that the recession of 2007 has little or nothing to do with the current crisis. In a pattern familiar to nations where the central government continues to play a greater role through increased taxes and regulations, the uncertainty and handicaps placed on entrepreneurship continue to drag down investment and business activity.  The President who tells those who start and grow businesses, especially small businesses, that “You didn’t build that” cannot expect that would-be creators of jobs and revenue would be anything but discouraged from proceeding.

U.S. businesses are increasingly handicapped by federal regulations, Obamacare costs, and the threat of an enormous increase in energy prices due to the threats to the future of coal. At the same time, they are competing not just in the global economy but even within the American domestic market with nations that offer lower and less inclusive corporate tax rates, and have a far less stringent regulatory regime. Continuous requests for a more level playing field, in which goods sold by other nations in the U.S. market should be manufactured under the same standards—have been ignored by official Washington, which pursues precisely the opposite course by supporting international trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will intensify the problem.

U.S. manufacturing, a key area of the economy both for domestic consumption and exports, continues to face difficult times due to prior legislation signed by President Clinton in 2000, who essentially guaranteed most favored nation status to China.  American industrial employment and manufacturing enterprises have never recovered from that act, or from Clinton’s earlier allowance of the sale of supercomputers to Beijing.

 

Text of the BEA Release

   Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, real GDP increased 0.2 percent. With the second estimate for the first quarter, imports increased more and private inventory investment increased less than previously estimated…

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Real GDP decreased 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, in contrast to an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014.  The downturn in the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and upturns in federal government spending and in private inventory investment.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, decreased 1.6 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate; this index decreased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter.  Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the fourth.  Durable goods increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 6.2 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent. Services increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.8 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.7 percent in the fourth.  Investment in nonresidential structures decreased 20.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 5.9 percent.  Investment in equipment increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.  Investment in intellectual property products increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 10.3 percent.  Real residential fixed investment increased 5.0 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent.

Real exports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.5 percent in the fourth.  Real imports of goods and services increased 5.6 percent, compared with an increase of 10.4 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.1 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 7.3 percent in the fourth.  National defense decreased 1.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 12.2 percent.  Nondefense increased 2.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent.

The change in real private inventories added 0.33 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.10 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change.  Private businesses increased inventories $95.0 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $80.0 billion in the fourth quarter and $82.2 billion in the third.

Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — decreased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.3 percent in the fourth.

Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases — purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced — increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the fourth.

Gross national product

Real gross national product — the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents — decreased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the fourth.  GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the

world, which decreased $24.9 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $30.7 billion in the fourth; in the first quarter, receipts decreased $22.4 billion, and payments increased $2.5 billion.

Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP — the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States — decreased 0.9 percent, or $38.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $17,665.0 billion.  In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 2.4 percent, or $103.9 billion.

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Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the value of the production of goods and services in the United States as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in production, increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent (revised) in the fourth.  For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may differ for a variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source data.  However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar patterns of change.

Revisions

The second estimate of the first-quarter percent change in real GDP is 0.9 percentage point, or $40.7 billion, less than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting an upward revision to imports and downward revisions to private inventory investment and to personal consumption expenditures that were partly offset by an upward revision to residential fixed investment.

Advance Estimate  Second Estimate

(Percent change from preceding quarter)

 

Real GDP………………………….       0.2              -0.7

Current-dollar GDP…………………       0.1              -0.9

Real GDI………………………….       —               1.4

Gross domestic purchases priceindex….      -1.5              -1.6

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) decreased $125.5 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $30.4 billion in the fourth.

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $2.6 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $12.5 billion in the fourth.  Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $100.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $18.1 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $22.4 billion, compared with a decrease of $36.1 billion.  This measure is calculated as the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world.  In the first quarter, receipts decreased $28.9 billion, and payments decreased $6.5 billion.

Taxes on corporate income increased $9.3 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $4.8 billion in the fourth.  Profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj decreased $134.6 billion, compared with a decrease of $25.8 billion.  The first-quarter changes in taxes on corporate income mainly reflect the expiration of bonus depreciation provisions…Dividends increased $5.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $18.6 billion in the fourth.  Undistributed profits decreased $139.7 billion, compared with a decrease of $44.3 billion. Net cash flow with IVA — the internal funds available to corporations for investment – decreased $132.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $12.2 billion.

The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts.  The IVA increased $29.4 billion, compared with an increase of $27.5 billion.  The CCAdj decreased $220.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $3.9 billion. Thefirst-quarter changes in CCAdj mainly reflect the expiration of bonus depreciation provisions…

Impacts of Bonus Depreciation on the First Quarter of 2015

The first-quarter changes in taxes on corporate income and in capital consumption adjustment(CCAdj) mainly reflect the expiration of both the 50-percent bonus depreciation provision and increased Section 179 expensing limits claimed under extensions of the 2010 tax acts.  For detailed data, see the table “Net Effects of the Tax Acts of 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010 (and extensions) on Selected Measures of Corporate Profits“.

BEA’s estimates of profits from current production are not affected by these tax acts because profits from current production do not depend on the depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax purposes.  BEA’s measure of current-production profits reflects economic accounting practices in which depreciation is based on an estimate of the reduction in the value of fixed capital used in the production process.  For a more detailed discussion on the effect of tax act provisions on the CCAdj, see FAQ 1002, “How do the economic stimulus acts impact NIPA Corporate Profits?”

_________________

Gross value added of nonfinancial domestic corporate business

Real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter.Profits per unit of real value added decreased, reflecting increases in unit labor and nonlabor costs and a decrease in unit prices.

BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov.  By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.

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Lower gas prices vital for families, U.S. trade

Even though gas prices are increasing for the summer driving season, some politicians and big government advocates continue to allege that lower gas prices are a bad thing. Many elected officials are trying to capitalize on the reduced prices by raising fuel taxes.

The voters disagree. One example was Michigan’s Proposition 1, which was soundly defeated on May 5. Lawmakers supporting the measure claimed it was essential to repair transportation infrastructure; opponents pointed to the harm it would do to the economy.

Those supporting the concept that high prices encourage investment say decreased prices at the pump will hurt the stock market, but opponents point to the harm it does to middle class Americans.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal noted that “American families are enjoying a level of economic relief they haven’t experienced in six years—and it is largely attributable to the recent slide in gasoline prices… Families are saving … at the pump and are paying less for groceries and everyday goods thanks to lower transportation costs. Considering that median family incomes are 3% lower than they were six years ago, this is a welcome reprieve for the middle class. Politicians, on the other hand, see an opportunity to ask Americans for more of their paychecks. On Feb. 4 Democrats in the House of Representatives, led by Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D., Ore.), introduced a bill that would raise the federal gas tax by 15 cents—nearly doubling the current 18.4-cent-per-gallon tax. Meanwhile, legislators and governors in more than 15 states are pursuing gas-tax hikes of their own…While the various proposals differ, one thing is the same: None should be passed into law.”
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The CATO Institute reports that “we cannot say that the drop in oil prices is bad for the economy. We could unambiguously say that it is good if we knew that all individuals are participating in the gains—or, at least, that no individual experiences a loss. An alternative way to say that the price drop cannot be bad is to say that it is potentially good. If there is more of all goods, everyone can potentially benefit.”

Increasing energy production, which would support lower prices, is not only advantageous for American families, but vital for the suffering U.S. trade imbalance.

According to Trading Economics.com  “The United States recorded a trade deficit of 51367 USD Million in March of 2015. It is the biggest trade deficit since October 2008…The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976 due to high imports of oil and consumer products…”