Tag: Asian Balance of Power

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its examination of the military threats facing Japan. 

TOKYO’S RESPONSE

Japan has begun to respond by cautiously increasing its defensive forces, although it continues to debate the extent it can do so and not exceed the limits of its Post WW2 Peace Constitution.  There is debate on whether the portions of that constitution denying Japan the ability to develop a more conventional military posture should be repealed.

Aki Nakai writes in The Diplomat  Warfare that Japan’s next National Defense Program Guidelines will address the nation’s need to expand its capabilities to fight against threats both in the cyber sphere as well as in outer space.

Japan officially describes  its defense planning in this way:

“Japan will build a comprehensive defense architecture, and actively promote bilateral and multilateral security cooperation with other countries while strengthening the Japan-U.S. Alliance, thereby seeking to establish an infrastructure necessary for fully exercising its defense capabilities.

Under the Constitution, Japan will efficiently build a highly effective and joint defense force in line with the basic principles of maintaining an exclusively defense oriented policy, not becoming a military power that poses a threat to other countries, while adhering to the principle of civilian control of the military and observing the Three Non-Nuclear Principles.

“Additionally, with regard to the threat of nuclear weapons, the extended deterrence provided by the United States is indispensable. Japan will closely cooperate with the United States, and take appropriate responses through its own efforts. In addition, Japan will play a constructive and active role in international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.

“Given the increasingly severe security environment, Japan will efficiently develop a highly effective joint defense force and make efforts to employ it with a high level of flexibility and readiness based on joint operations. In the event of various situations, Japan will appropriately and promptly make decisions and seamlessly respond to situations as they unfold, in a whole-of-the-government approach, in coordination with local governments, private sectors, and others. Furthermore, Japan will continue to develop various systems to respond to a variety of disasters and protect its people, and will enhance the capability to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals in foreign countries in an emergency situation.

“Japan will achieve intelligence superiority through persistent ISR activities in an extensive surrounding area to detect any signs of development at an early stage. Through such activities, Japan will clearly express its resolve not to tolerate any change of the status quo by force, thereby preventing various situations from occurring. At the same time, Japan will swiftly and seamlessly respond to situations from an early stage, including grayzone situations, and establish the necessary posture to continuously address a protracted situation. Moreover, Japan will implement an effective response tailored to each situation, even in cases when multiple events occur in a consecutive or concurrent manner. In particular, the following points will be emphasized: (1) ensuring security of the sea and airspace surrounding Japan; (2) response to an attack on remote islands; (3) response to ballistic missile attacks; (4) responses in outer space and cyberspace; and (5) responses to major disasters.”

Architecture of Each Service of the Self-Defense Forces 

 Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) In order to respond swiftly to an attack on offshore islands and various other situations, the GSDF will maintain rapidly deployable basic operational units (rapid deployment divisions, rapid deployment brigades, and an armored division) furnished with advanced mobility and ISR capabilities. In addition, the GSDF will maintain mobile operating units capable of effectively performing amphibious and other operations. The GSDF will maintain half of these rapidly deployable basic operational units in Hokkaido, given its excellent training environment. The GSDF will implement rationalization and streamlining with a particular focus on tanks/howitzers and rockets, and review the organization and equipment of units. The number of GSDF personnel will be maintained at around 159,000, which was the same level as at the end of FY2013, in order to ensure suffi \cient personnel availability to respond to major disasters or other situations.

• Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) The MSDF will increase the number of destroyers to 54 (14 escort divisions) by using new destroyers that offer improved response capabilities for various missions and have more compact designs, and will maintain ship-based patrol helicopter units in order to secure the defense of surrounding waters and ensure the safety of maritime traffi c. Furthermore, two Aegis destroyers will be added, bringing the fl eet to eight. Furthermore, in order to effectively carry out regular information gathering and warning and surveillance activities, as well as patrolling of surrounding waters7 and defense operations, the MSDF will maintain an augmented submarine fleet and patrol aircraft units.

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 Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) The ASDF will maintain air warning and control units in order to provide persistent ISR in most air space over Japan and the surrounding areas. By consolidating warning and control operations at air defense command centers, the ASDF will gradually change warning groups into warning squadrons as well as establish one new squadron in the air warning unit. As for Fighter Aircraft Units, the 13th squadron will be newly established, and Air Reconnaissance Unit will be abolished. In addition, one squadron will be added to the Aerial Refueling/Transport Unit, making it a twosquadron architecture. Furthermore, the ASDF will maintain surface-toair guided missile units providing multi-layered defense for Japan against ballistic missile attacks, together with the Aegis destroyers, as well as protecting key areas in tandem with the surface-to-air guided missile units of the GSDF.”

 Central to all Tokyo’s planning is its partnership with the United States, particularly in the realm of nuclear deterrence.

Photo:  Senior-level meeting between GSDF Chief of Staff General Iwata, the commander of the U.S. Army Pacific and the commander of the III Marine Expeditionary Force (JSDF Photo)

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its examination of the military threats facing Japan. 

RUSSIA

James D.J. Brown, writing for the National Interest reports that “Between June 19 and 21, 2018, Russia conducted missile-firing drills on Iturup, one of the four disputed Southern Kuril islands that are claimed by Japan as its Northern Territories…In the last fiscal year, Japan scrambled jets 390 times to intercept approaching Russian aircraft. This figure was up by eighty-nine from fiscal 2016 and was only exceeded by the 500 scrambles provoked by China. Russia’s military presence on the Kuril chain, which Japan controlled until 1945, has also increased. In November 2016, just ahead of President Putin’s visit to Japan, Russia announced the deployment of new anti-ship missiles to Iturup and Kunashir. At the start of 2018, Moscow ruled that combat jets could be deployed to Iturup. Construction is also beginning on a naval facility on Matua in the Northern Kurils, at the site of an old Japanese base.

This is how the Japanese government summarizes the threat from Russia:

President Putin, who has called for Russia to become a strong and influential nation, was re-elected in March 2018. With regards to Russia’s future, he emphasized to further bolster its defense capability, while stating his commitment to pursue constructive relations with other countries without the intention of starting an arms race. With regards to Europe, Russia is negative about the expansion of NATO, and has deployed three divisions near the border with Ukraine etc, and conducted the large-scale training exercise Zapad-2017 in September last year. As for Syria, Russia announced naval and air bases in Syria will continue to operate on a permanent basis. Attention will continue to be paid to Russia’s moves to expand its influence in the Middle East. In the Far East, Russia has been developing its newest class of frigate (Steregushchiy class) and fighter jets (Su-35 and Su-34). In 2018, Russia also plans on holding a large-scale military exercise called Vostok-2018. Russia announced deployment of surface-to-ship missiles in the Northern Territories (Etorofu and Kunashiri islands), and it is also intensifying activities in Etorofu island, including designation of a civilian airport to both civilian and military use and deployment of fighters. Russia tends to increase its military activities, including in areas near Japan, and it is necessary to closely observe this trend.

NORTH KOREA

This is how the Japanese government summarizes the threat from North Korea:
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“Since 2016, North Korea has willfully conducted three nuclear tests and launched as many as 40 ballistic missiles. These military trends in North Korea pose an unprecedentedly serious and imminent threat to Japan’s security, and significantly damage the peace and security of the region and the international community.

“In the joint declaration at the first-ever U.S.-North Korea Summit Meeting in June 2018, North Korea gave a commitment to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and confirmed that it plans to continue the negotiations between the two sides. It is highly significant that Chairman Kim Jong-un reiterated his intension for the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and made a clear promise to do so in a written document. It is important to closely monitor specific actions by North Korea to eliminate nuclear and missile capabilities. Taking into consideration the fact that North Korea appears to possess and deploy several hundred Nodong missiles capable of reaching almost every part of Japan as well as advancements in the development and operational capabilities of nuclear weapons and missiles through repeated nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches to date, there is no change in our basic recognition concerning the threat of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles. 1 2 3 4 North Korea willfully conducted its sixth nuclear test in September 2017. The yield of the weapon is estimated at around 160kt, making it the largest yielding test to date. It is difficult to deny the possibility that it was a hydrogen bomb test.

Considering the technological maturity estimated to have been achieved through these six nuclear tests, it is possible that North Korea has already achieved the miniaturization of nuclear weapons and has developed nuclear warheads so that nuclear weapons can be loaded into ballistic missiles. As for whether North Korea has demonstrated warhead reentry technologies, while detailed analysis is necessary, North Korea can be accumulating related technologies through its repeated missile launches. North Korea is suspected to have several facilities capable of producing chemical agents and already a substantial stockpile of such agents. North Korea is also thought to have some infrastructure for the production of biological weapons. The possibility cannot be denied that North Korea is able to load biological and/or chemical weapons on ballistic missiles. … In terms of ballistic missiles, North Korea appears to be aiming to (1) advance long-range ballistic missiles’ technological reliability, (2) enhance the accuracy and operational capabilities necessary for saturation attacks, (3) improve its ability to conduct surprise attacks, and (4) diversify the forms of launches. If North Korea advances further in development of ballistic missiles and other activities and overconfidently and wrongly believes that it has obtained strategic deterrence against the United States, there is possibility of increased and more serious military provocations in the region and could lead to circumstances that raise strong concerns for Japan.”

The Report Concludes Monday

Photo: Japanese Forces engage in disaster relief (JSDF photo)

Japan is increasingly threatened by an expansionist China and an aggressive Russia, even as North Korea suspends its missile testing program.

According to a Japanese Government document,    here’s how Tokyo sees its security environment:

“In the area surrounding Japan, there is a concentration of nations with large-scale military capabilities, and a regional cooperation framework on security has not yet to be fully institutionalized, leading to the existence of uncertainty and unclarity, including the persistence of territorial disputes and unification issues. Meanwhile, there has been a tendency towards an increase in and prolongation of so-called “gray-zone” situations; that is, neither pure peacetime nor contingencies over territory, sovereignty, and economic interests. There has also been a noticeable trend among neighboring countries to modernize and reinforce their military capabilities and to intensify their military activities.

The security challenges and destabilizing factors in the Asia-Pacific region are characterized below:

• North Korea’s military development such as nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development represents an unprecedentedly serious and imminent threat.
• The unilateral escalation of China’s military activities poses a strong security concern for the region including Japan and international community.
• Russia has tendency to intensify its military activities, including in areas surrounding Japan, and this trend needs to paid due attention. Territorial disputes over the Northern Territories and Takeshima, both of which are inherent parts of the territory of Japan, remain unresolved.”

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CHINA

In a published interview, Tokyo’s Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera warned of “imminent threats” to his nation from both Moscow and Beijing, as well as North Korea’s missile and nuclear program. Russia will soon conduct it largest training exercise since the end of the Cold War era and is introducing powerful weapons to territory Japan claims as its own.  China has become a military superpower, and has engaged in a threatening manner towards Japan as well as violating international law in the Pacific by invading the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone, and unlawfully laying claim to strategically significant seaways.

Stephen Nagy, an associate professor of international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University, noted in an interview with DW that “Beijing is…demonstrating a very assertive policy in the South China Sea and the East China Sea and using a salami-slicing approach to reduce Japan’s claims to the Senkaku Islands,” Nagy was referring to uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that are controlled by Japan but claimed by China. The DW analysis notes that “The Chinese navy continues to carry out frequent incursions into Japanese territorial waters around the islands, challenging Japan’s claims to control the waters.”

Berkshire Miller, writing in the Japanese publication Nikkei Asian Review  warns that “Japan must respond to China’s growing naval power… The crisis over North Korea’s nuclear program has dominated security debate in Northeast Asia over the past year. But Japan must not be distracted from a much more important long-term challenge: China’s enhancement of its military capabilities in the region and its growing assertiveness, driven by President Xi Jinping’s more hawkish and nationalist foreign policy… China is also challenging Japan’s control of critical water and airspace around the Ryukyu Islands, known in Japanese as the Nansei Shoto, as demonstrated by its repeated military exercises in the Miyako Strait in the island chain. In December 2016, Beijing alarmed Tokyo when it conducted a so-called “innocent passage” by sending the aircraft carrier Liaoning and escorts for the first time through the strait. Tokyo and Beijing also continue to be at loggerheads over sharing natural resources in the East China Sea. China has unilaterally accelerated the exploitation of natural resources in the area despite the lack of boundary lines governing the exclusive economic zone or continental shelf in the waters.

Alexander Neill, writing for the BBC, notes that “Japan’s navy and coast guard in recent years have also been under increasing pressure to respond to China’s campaign of incursions into Japan’s territorial waters and frequent transits of vessels and aircraft through the numerous straits of the Japanese archipelago. A focal point for such rivalry are the disputed Senkaku islands, known as Diaoyu in Chinese…the Japanese maritime agencies [have been] alarmed to detect armaments on Chinese coast guard vessels…While in 2012, Japanese and Chinese coast guard vessel numbers were roughly similar at 51 and 40 respectively, the Japanese government estimates that by 2019, the numbers will have swung hugely in favour of China at 135 vessels versus Japan’s 65. And there have been an increasing number of other concerning incidents for Japan in recent years. In June 2016 the Japanese destroyer Setogiri spotted a PLA Navy Jiangkai class frigate entering the contiguous zone around the Senkakus at the same time as a group of Russian navy vessels transited the same waters. That same month, Chinese naval intelligence-gathering ships entered Japan’s territorial sea near Kuchinerabujima and Yakushima islands for the first time and in the southern waters of the Senkaku islands. One particularly unnerving episode for Japan began in early August 2016 when a China coast guard vessel escorted 300 Chinese fishing vessels into waters around the Senkakus, and over four days a total of 15 coast guard ships repeatedly intruded into the waters, half of them armed. The Japanese defence ministry suspects that many of the Chinese fishing vessels belonged to the maritime militia. Meanwhile, the number of Japanese scrambles against Chinese aircraft around the East China Sea and towards the Senkakus has jumped dramatically, surpassing even the annual peak number of 994 during the Cold War. Japanese fighter patrols have also encountered challenging behaviour by Chinese PLA Air Force pilots.”

This is how the Japanese government summarizes the threat from China:

“China, over maritime issues where its interests conflict with others’, continues to act in a way which can be considered assertive, such as attempts at changing the status quo by coercion. China has pressed ahead with rapid and large-scale land reclamation on seven features in the Spratly Islands, installing military facilities such as artillery batteries, and transforming these features into military installations. Furthermore, China is promoting militarization of the Paracel Islands too, as bomber takeoff and landing exercises are pointed out to be implemented, for example. China’s military activities in South China Sea are expanding, and the expansion itself is to change the status quo by coercion and to promote the changed status as an accomplished fact. The United States is conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations in the waters such as South China Sea to cope with over-claiming of maritime interests, including one by China. However, China is exhibiting interest in initiatives to avoid and prevent unexpected contingency in the sea and airspace. For example, in May 2018, Japan and China officially agreed to implement “Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism between the Defense Authorities of Japan-China.” Nevertheless, China’s rapid modernization of the PLA, enhancement of operational capabilities, and unilateral escalation of activities in areas close to Japan, without sufficient transparency, are generating strong security concerns in the region and international community, including Japan. It is probable that the PLA plays a backing role in Belt and Road Initiative through its activities such as sea lane protection. In addition, development of infrastructure under the initiative can lead to further expansion of the PLA’s activities in the area such as the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean.”

The Report Continues Tomorrow

Photo: Japanese forces in training. (JSDF Photo)