The President has released his 2017 proposed budget. At the unveiling, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest noted:
“Budgets are important because they enumerate priorities. And when you have something that’s this detailed, there’s no fudging. It becomes quite clear when you look at the numbers what you believe rates. And that’s the importance of this exercise. I readily acknowledge, as I have on many occasions, that there are some priorities that we have that are deeply held that Republicans in Congress do not share. And there will be differences of opinion about the priorities that are laid out in here.”
The New York Analysis of Policy & Government has reviewed the White House’s statements, information from the Office of Management and Budget, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as well as comments from those both favoring and disagreeing with his general direction, such as the National Priorities Project, the Heritage Foundation, and other sources.
Total spending comes to about $4.2 trillion, an increase of approximately 4% over 2016 levels. The President anticipates taking in about $3.6 trillion in revenue, leaving a vast gap of $398.4 billion to add to America’s current debt of over $19 trillion. Analyzing the current budget shortfall, the Congressional Budget Office reports, “At 2.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the expected shortfall for 2016 will mark the first time that the deficit has risen in relation to the size of the economy since…2009.”
CBO notes:
“In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase, in relation to the size of the economy, for the first time since 2009, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates. If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years, CBO projects. Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level… The deficit projected by CBO would increase debt held by the public to 76 percent of GDP by the end of 2016, the agency estimates—about 2 percentage points higher than it was last year and higher than it has been since the years immediately following World War II.”
According to Office of Management and Budget, spending is divided as follows:
Social Security, Unemployment, & Labor, $1.39 trillion, 33% of all federal spending
Medicare & Health, $1.17 trillion, 28% of all federal spending
Defense, $632 billion, 15% of all federal spending
Interest on the National Debt, $303 billion, 7% of all federal spending
Veterans Benefits, $179 billion, 4% of all federal spending
Agriculture & Food, $138 billion, 3% of all federal spending
Transportation, $109 billion, 3% of all federal spending
Housing & Community Development, $90 billion, 2% of all federal spending
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Education, $85 billion, 2% of all federal spending
Environmental and Energy, $51 billion, 1% of all federal spending
International relations, $45 billion, 1% of all federal spending
Science, $32 billion, 1% of all federal spending
Government expenses, $8 billion, less than 1% of all federal spending
As noted above, there will not be adequate revenue to pay for the proposed spending. The heaviest burden of providing payments comes from Individual income, payroll, and corporate taxes. The projections are based on an assumption that the economy will grow at an average rate of 2.5 percent, a continuation of the weak rate that the nation has endured over the past several years.
Here’s where the anticipated revenue is expected to come from:
Individual income taxes, $1.79 trillion, 49% of all federal revenue
Payroll taxes, $1.14 trillion, 31% of all federal revenue
Corporate income taxes, $419 billion, 11% of all federal revenue
Miscellaneous & legislative proposals , $146, (approximately) 4%+ of all federal revenue
Excise taxes, $110 billion, 3% of all federal revenue
Customs Duties, $40 billion, 1% of all federal revenue
A controversial revenue enhancer contained in the President’s budget is a $10 per barrel tax on oil, which observers estimate would result in 22 cent per gallon tax passed down to consumers of gasoline, diesel fuel, home heating oil, jet fuel, and other petroleum liquids.