Showdown in Donbas – USA Gov Policy

Winter is approaching in the Far North but the situation in the Donbas is a long way from frozen. Political posturing by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was blatant last week when he publicized confidential diplomatic messages recently exchanged between himself and his German and French counterparts concerning politics in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Russian-occupied Ukraine. This was the second set of leaked messages this year. Lavrov did so without any of his counterparts’ consent. “Russian diplomacy is testing its rogue-state practices on its Western diplomatic counterparts, and finds them malleable”, according to a recent analysis by Vladimir Socor, of the Jamestown Foundation. Representatives from Ukraine, France, and Germany are pushing for a Normandy-style framework to relaunch negotiations with Russia over the 2014-15 Minsk Agreements that sought an end to the Crimean war.

The Minsk Protocol itself was written by members of the Trilateral Contact Group. It has three official members and includes representatives from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Established about five years ago, it specifically was designed to settle the dispute over the Donbas area of Ukraine. Lavrov, however, has demanded a vast number of conditions be met before Russia is willing to agree to begin any discussion concerning changes to its strict interpretation of the document.

“President Vladimir Putin signaled his support for this action by taking the unusual step of attending the ministry’s senior officials’ meeting (Kollegium) the following day and reinforcing Lavrov’s arguments,” according to Socor. After the agreement between the Donetsk-Luhansk regions and Kiev was signed last year on July 22, 2020, Ukraine backed out as it decided the Protocol established “de facto” equality between the Ukrainian military and Russia’s proxy forces. The protocol, says Socor, effectively legitimized the status of the Russian-backed Donetsk-Luhansk forces. If a new consensus to meet can be coordinated, the discussions are expected to center around political and security conditions for holding local elections in the region.

Lavrov, however, is demanding a preset agenda, and predetermined outcome, before any meeting can take place. In the conveniently timed leak last week he refers to the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) February 17, 2015, resolution which he points out was by “unanimous vote.” Lavrov argues that the UNSC decision means that Ukraine cannot make any revisions to the agreement. Socor notes that President Obama helped push for a fast and unanimous vote on the original resolution. Lavrov now is suggesting the Biden Administration needs to continue to assist Russia in supporting the UNSC’s position although it is not formally part of the group.

In the leaked messages, Lavrov’s German counterpart Heiko Maas, and the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, appear willing to meet Russia half-way but refused to support the idea that the conflict is an internal Russian issue. Socor points out that they also disagreed with “Moscow’s proposal to jointly endorse direct negotiations between Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk in the Contact Group.” LE Drian and Maas view their version of the proposal as the one most likely to overcome a deadlock and resolve differences. Russia, in typical fashion, is demanding a total win.

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So far, the relaunch of Minsk talks has failed, according to Michael Kimmage and Bruno Lete of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. That increases the likelihood of a major security risk going forward and possible renewed conflict in the region next year. The Minsk agreements that were to end the dispute six years ago have not resulted in a return to normalcy. Russian troops remain on the ground and there are numerous incidents of small outbreaks of fighting between the two sides. One of the points making this environment so dangerous is that the failed agreements falsely make it appear that Russia and the West have a serious diplomatic relationship. It is not, however, war by other means across a diplomatic negotiating table as the factions involved are not seeking compromise.

First, the two western nations involved in the proposed talks are not directly connected to the issue. There is no trust on either side and the Lavrov leaks of this past week appear to be pushing the parties further apart. Finally, the failed talks have implications that will contribute to a global redistribution of power. Kimmage and Lete write that “The tensions between Ukraine and Russia are not some provincial dispute at the periphery of Europe. They have proven instrumental to a global realignment since 2014, felt from Syria to China to Venezuela.” Lete argues that if Ukraine pulls out now Russia will point to Kiev and say it was not interested in peace. The Donbas is the single largest point of contention between Russia and the West. It deserves and demands transatlantic attention from Washington before the situation escalates.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.