Showdown in Donbas – USA Gov Policy

Winter is approaching in the Far North but the situation in the Donbas is a long way from frozen. Political posturing by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was blatant last week when he publicized confidential diplomatic messages recently exchanged between himself and his German and French counterparts concerning politics in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Russian-occupied Ukraine. This was the second set of leaked messages this year. Lavrov did so without any of his counterparts’ consent. “Russian diplomacy is testing its rogue-state practices on its Western diplomatic counterparts, and finds them malleable”, according to a recent analysis by Vladimir Socor, of the Jamestown Foundation. Representatives from Ukraine, France, and Germany are pushing for a Normandy-style framework to relaunch negotiations with Russia over the 2014-15 Minsk Agreements that sought an end to the Crimean war.

The Minsk Protocol itself was written by members of the Trilateral Contact Group. It has three official members and includes representatives from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Established about five years ago, it specifically was designed to settle the dispute over the Donbas area of Ukraine. Lavrov, however, has demanded a vast number of conditions be met before Russia is willing to agree to begin any discussion concerning changes to its strict interpretation of the document.

“President Vladimir Putin signaled his support for this action by taking the unusual step of attending the ministry’s senior officials’ meeting (Kollegium) the following day and reinforcing Lavrov’s arguments,” according to Socor. After the agreement between the Donetsk-Luhansk regions and Kiev was signed last year on July 22, 2020, Ukraine backed out as it decided the Protocol established “de facto” equality between the Ukrainian military and Russia’s proxy forces. The protocol, says Socor, effectively legitimized the status of the Russian-backed Donetsk-Luhansk forces. If a new consensus to meet can be coordinated, the discussions are expected to center around political and security conditions for holding local elections in the region.

Lavrov, however, is demanding a preset agenda, and predetermined outcome, before any meeting can take place. In the conveniently timed leak last week he refers to the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) February 17, 2015, resolution which he points out was by “unanimous vote.” Lavrov argues that the UNSC decision means that Ukraine cannot make any revisions to the agreement. Socor notes that President Obama helped push for a fast and unanimous vote on the original resolution. Lavrov now is suggesting the Biden Administration needs to continue to assist Russia in supporting the UNSC’s position although it is not formally part of the group.

In the leaked messages, Lavrov’s German counterpart Heiko Maas, and the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, appear willing to meet Russia half-way but refused to support the idea that the conflict is an internal Russian issue. Socor points out that they also disagreed with “Moscow’s proposal to jointly endorse direct negotiations between Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk in the Contact Group.” LE Drian and Maas view their version of the proposal as the one most likely to overcome a deadlock and resolve differences. Russia, in typical fashion, is demanding a total win.

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So far, the relaunch of Minsk talks has failed, according to Michael Kimmage and Bruno Lete of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. That increases the likelihood of a major security risk going forward and possible renewed conflict in the region next year. The Minsk agreements that were to end the dispute six years ago have not resulted in a return to normalcy. Russian troops remain on the ground and there are numerous incidents of small outbreaks of fighting between the two sides. One of the points making this environment so dangerous is that the failed agreements falsely make it appear that Russia and the West have a serious diplomatic relationship. It is not, however, war by other means across a diplomatic negotiating table as the factions involved are not seeking compromise.

First, the two western nations involved in the proposed talks are not directly connected to the issue. There is no trust on either side and the Lavrov leaks of this past week appear to be pushing the parties further apart. Finally, the failed talks have implications that will contribute to a global redistribution of power. Kimmage and Lete write that “The tensions between Ukraine and Russia are not some provincial dispute at the periphery of Europe. They have proven instrumental to a global realignment since 2014, felt from Syria to China to Venezuela.” Lete argues that if Ukraine pulls out now Russia will point to Kiev and say it was not interested in peace. The Donbas is the single largest point of contention between Russia and the West. It deserves and demands transatlantic attention from Washington before the situation escalates.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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