Russia’s Numbers Problem

President Vladimir Putin is running low on soldiers to conduct his war in Ukraine. Despite adding soldiers once assigned to the Arctic, others recruited from the country’s prisons, and older civilians from among the general population, there is an overall lack of willingness to replace frontline soldiers. Reports coming in from various Western media organizations say that new are not receiving the minimal amount of training normally required to conduct military operations. Training videos snuck out of Russia depict women teaching soldiers how to use feminine products as bandages. Others show soldiers training without guns, equipment, or meals. Russian soldiers are left to fend for their own food while on the battlefield. The dearth of money and human capital has forced Putin to move his effort to dragoon more men into service from Russia to the countries in Central Asia.

In November, the Russian president signed a decree allowing foreign citizens to serve in the Russian Army as contractors and conscripts. It was depicted as an opportunity for Central Asian citizens residing in Russia. Nurbek Bekmurzaev, of the Jamestown Foundation, notes that the Russian publication Vzglyad is reporting that the Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Krasov expressed his firm belief that “a comparable number [of Central Asians] will want to come to Russia to serve—with an eye on the potential acquisition of Russian citizenship and career advancement.” It has, he adds, stirred discussions about the extent of the conscription of those from former Soviet satellite states, with many Russians concluding that it is a sign that the Kremlin is desperate to locate new soldiers.

As early as last February, at the start of the war in Ukraine, videos emerged of Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani and Uzbek men driving Russian military vehicles. By March videos emerged of Central Asians dying and being buried in Ukraine. In September, Bekmurzaev says the first evidence of Uzbekistani citizens fighting in the war appeared on the internet, when a Ukrainian journalist released a video of two young Uzbekistani men in military captivity. The motivation for these young recruits is the result of Russian trickery and coercion. In some cases, they are threatened with the stripping of potential citizenship if they refuse to join the Russian armed forces and fight.

According to CabarAsia, several human rights defenders who work with labor migrants have reported hundreds of cases in which Central Asians with Russian passports received summons to arrive at military enlistment centers or risk being stripped of their citizenship. Putin’s policy goes further. “For those without Russian passports, the authorities in Moscow have legalized organizational arrangements conducive to recruitment. On September 20, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced the launch of a recruitment center at the Sakharovo Migration Center, where virtually all labor migrants have to visit to undergo mandatory fingerprint scanning and physical examinations, as well as receive work permits,” according to Bekmurzaev. The Duma recently simplified the pathway to citizenship by reducing the five-year wait to one in exchange for military service.

Despite all of Putin’s recruiting attempts, the Russian Armed Forces continue to fall short of recruiting goals this January. Central Asians are not stronger patriotic toward Moscow. Their citizenship, notes Bekmurzaev, is only a means to better cope with the discrimination and bureaucracy they face daily in Russia. The colossal losses on the Russian battlefield continue to suppress the number of able-bodied men willing to go fight in Ukraine. Add to this, that Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have issued stern warnings to their citizens not to fight in Ukraine. The potential soldiers now face lengthy prison sentences for participating in armed conflicts abroad as mercenaries. Most Central Asian migrants plan to return home after their time in Russia and do not want to risk ending up with a long prison sentence upon their return.

This leaves Putin needing to locate addition manpower on the frontline to compensate for growing losses as the war approaches the one-year mark. News of the deaths of foreign recruits is suppressed by the Russian media in an attempt to fill the ranks with those faraway people who will go largely unnoticed from Russian cities if killed in the war. Bekmurzaev points out that the mass participation of Central Asian migrants in the war spells a whole new set of troubles for the region and not just Putin. “Besides a significant decrease in remittances, which comprise one-third of the GDPs of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the region faces a threat of welcoming back numerous war veterans, which could lead to a subsequent increase in alcohol and drug abuse, suicide, domestic violence and crime.” Returning compatriots are now trying to discourage migrants from fighting in Ukraine are in direct competition with the Russian government. Despite things not going well for Putin he is not backing down and there is no end in sight to the war in Ukraine.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.