Russia’s Exhausted Resources

Passing the 100-day mark of war in Ukraine last week Russian troops losses have now mounted to levels unseen since WWII. As with deaths from the earlier war the conflict in Ukraine is again decimating the male population in a country where the birth rate already is among the lowest in the world, at 1.5 births per woman. The loss of additional males fighting inside Ukraine, on top of those lost in the pandemic, is likely to hurt Russia’s chance to reverse the negative, longer-term demographic trends in the coming years. Some analysts are calling Putin’s capturing of Ukrainians and moving them into Russian territory an attempt to repopulate the country.

Although the final numbers for the 2020 Russian census have not yet been released, there are preliminary statistical readouts that are troublesome for the Russian economy. The “early census figures show that the populations of two-thirds of the country’s federal subjects have declined. Only one-third saw any sort of increase, and this was almost exclusively in regions like Moscow, St. Petersburg and other megalopolises where surging urbanization pulled people out not only of the countryside but out of smaller cities,” according to the Jamestown Foundation.

Since April, the government in Moscow has instituted plans which require the drafting of just over 134,500 military recruits. However, during the same period it also is scheduled to release from service a similar number. This twice-a-year draft of 18-27-year old men is compounded by two serious challenges for Putin. Many families fear that their sons will be sent to the front in Ukraine and die. Second, is that a large number of young, highly educated males have fled Russia for safe countries in Europe and elsewhere. The brain drain, especially among those with IT and other technical expertise, is not only impacting military recruiting of the good talent needed to handle sophisticated weapons system but also commercial industries in the country. The Kremlin is providing “deferments” to many IT specialist to encourage them to remain in Russia as it fears that those who leave never will return. The result is an even smaller cohort of young men to draft.

Jozef Davydowski reports in The Insider, a Russian language publication, that “Russia has practically exhausted its resources in missiles and trained military, does not have a clear strategy and is completely disorganized, and therefore suffers huge losses.” Anger among Russian families and new recruits is rising as Putin is using heavy-handed methods to press the country’s youth into military service to meet its quota. According to Paul Goble, of the Jamestown Foundation, Russian leaders hoped to end the war by June to avoid the failure of meeting its military recruiting numbers and ongoing disobedience among its troops.

The Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting is saying that Central Asians working in Russia in lower-paying jobs are leaving the country by the millions and pay is decreasing by up to 50% as demand for products goes down due to global sanctions against Russia. At the same time food and other prices have risen dramatically in the country. Some reports, according to the Institute suggest that foreign labor are down by more than 40%, making it impossible for these laborers to repatriate funds to their families abroad. Another impact is that Russian men who might have enlisted in the army are now taking jobs once were held by the lower-skilled foreign labor force. Although young men became ill with Covid less often that other demographic groups, those with lingering effects from the virus may still be called up to meet the army’s enlistment quotas.

The long-term impact on the Russian economy, the ethnic makeup of its population, and victory in the war in Ukraine remains unknowns. Demographers familiar with similar environments suggest that Russia may be facing a crisis greater than first realized and longer-term in its nature. Putin’s response may be to view a win in Ukraine as the only possible solution. If he views this as his only option for saving the motherland, it makes him an even greater danger to the Ukrainian people and the free world.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.