A “Strategic Multiyear Assessment” (SMA) was prepared for the U.S. Military Joint Chiefs of Staff by key defense policy analysts. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents key excerpts. It was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict, in direct response to a series of questions posed by the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). Twenty-three experts contributed to this white paper and provided wide-ranging assessments of Russia’s global interests and objectives, as well as the activities—gray or otherwise—that it conducts to achieve them.
There is broad consensus among the contributors that Russian President Vladimir Putin is indeed adhering to a global grand strategy, which aims to achieve the following goals:
• Reclaim and secure Russia’s influence over former Soviet nations
• Regain worldwide recognition as a “great power”
• Portray itself as a reliable actor, a key regional powerbroker, and a successful mediator in order to gain economic, military, and political influence over nations worldwide and to refine the liberalist rules and norms that currently govern the world order.
According to Dr. Robert Person, these goals are motivated by Russia’s deep-seated geopolitical insecurity. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has struggled to find its place in the global community, which has left the leadership with a lingering desire to regain the influence and power that it once had. In particular, Russia seeks to regain its influence over former Soviet states, which it claims are in its rightful “sphere of influence.”
As a result, one of the United States’ core goals, namely promoting and protecting the international liberal order, comes into contention with the goals of Russia’s grand strategy. This underpins the Kremlin’s belief that it must contain and constrain US influence and activities in Europe and elsewhere across the globe.
The Russian leadership’s worldview is zero-sum; it believes that in order for Russia to win, the US must lose. However, this world view is not necessarily shared by the Russian population or its elite. As evidenced by the range of “gray zone” activities it engages in, a number of the expert contributors argue that the Russian leadership sees itself as at war with the US and the West as a whole. From a Russian perspective, this war is not total, but rather, it is fundamental—a type of “war” that is at odds with the general US understanding of warfare.
Russia believes that there is no unacceptable or illegitimate form of deterrence, compellence, or escalation management. It also does not believe in the continuum of conflict that the US has constructed. Like Russia’s perception of its competition with the US, its perception of conflict is dichotomous: one is either at war or not at war. To fight and win this war, Russia believes that the successful integration of all instruments of state power, as well as the orchestrated employment of non-military and military means to deter and compel, are paramount. Furthermore, Russian This leads to narrower blood vessels, which affects the easy movement of blood in your Urine In a higher level, you will find that there are many types of herbal male enhancement pills are being introduced http://raindogscine.com/?order=1673 viagra online cheap because every other method available for curing this reproductive health trouble. Generic meds are available under the name of active ingredients and buy cialis no prescription they are as effective as their branded counterparts are. They suffer in silence and follow the point to ‘keep quiet and carry on’. viagra prescription Medicinal help to improve one’s erection issues are now the http://raindogscine.com/?attachment_id=122 brand viagra talk of the town. military concepts include options for employing preemptive force to induce shock and dissuade an adversary from conducting military operations and to compel a de-escalation of hostilities
The authors observe that Russia’s strategies are continuously evolving and expect that the discrepancy between the Russian and the US understanding of “conflict” and “war” will continue to grow, leading to a higher risk of escalation in future situations involving both nations.
Overall, Russia’s influence abroad is growing, and the Kremlin has mastered the use of “hybrid warfare” in driving Russia’s foreign policy.
Russia utilizes a variety of gray zone tactics around the globe. These include the use of paramilitary forces and other proxies, interference in political processes, economic and energy exploitation (particularly in Africa), espionage, and media and propaganda manipulation. Putin is also adept at blending military and civilian elements for maximum impact.
The specific tactics of hybrid warfare that Russia uses vary by region. In Europe, for example, Russia has utilized propaganda, an increasing dependence on external energy resources, and political manipulation to achieve its primary goals. In contrast, in the Middle East and Africa— important sources of minerals and other natural resources from a Russian perspective1 — Russia has primarily utilized economic exploitation tools. In Central Asia, Russia maintains a much more limited presence, due to China’s geographic proximity and the current levels of economic and security engagement by other regional actors. Nevertheless, Russia does retain influence in the Central Asia, as a result of its historical, linguistic, and cultural connections to the region. Likewise, in Latin America, Russia lacks a sufficient amount of deployable resources to fully implement its strategy or to extend its influence very far. However, as has been observed, Russia makes up for its shortcomings by engaging in episodic and reactive endeavors to disrupt US influence in the region.
Although Russian tactics vary significantly, in all regions of the world energy has been a key source of Russian power and influence. Globally, many countries have developed a strong relationship with Russia when it comes to energy. Russia’s energy priorities extend worldwide, and European nations in particular have become dependent on Russia for access to these resources. Africa and the Arctic have also become significant as Russia looks to exploit opportunities for energy-related commerce.
Despite the strength of Russia’s growing influence abroad and the diverse array of gray zone tactics it uses to achieve its strategic goals, the US can still limit the results of this grand strategy. There is broad consensus among the contributors that countering Russian provocations will require the use of all instruments of national power. In particular, US success will be reliant both on its ability to influence populations, states, and non-state actors, and on its ability to minimize Russia’s influence on these actors. Creating effective narratives in each of the regions covered in this white paper will be critical for achieving this goal. Furthermore, the US can counter specific Russian gray zone activities, such as diversifying energy sources to reduce European nations’ dependence on Russia and counteracting propaganda by creating both resilient democratic institutions and populations abroad, particularly in Europe. Finally, it is imperative that the US establishes a consensus definition of “gray zone” and reevaluates old paradigms defining war and peace, as we enter a “new era of international politics which is defined by shades of gray”. Once defined, a federal agency dedicated to gray zone activities may be required in order to implement a true whole of government approach to combatting Russian influence activities abroad.
The Report Continues Tomorrow
Illustration: Pixabay