Russia-Iran Relationship Grows

The war in Ukraine is keeping President Vladimir Putin busy but, not too busy to travel to Tehran only three days after President Biden’s failed Middle East trip. On July 19 the Iranian government hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Russia President. The tripartite meeting was “held within the framework of the seventh summit of the heads of states of the Astana Peace Process for Syria,” according to Vali Kaleji of the Jamestown Foundation. Given the timing of this summit, Kaleji suggests that Putin used it as an opportunity to discuss Moscow’s challenges in the region.

Three months ago the Financial Times, along with other local publications, reported correctly that Russian troops in Syria were being redeployed to the front lines in support of the war in Ukraine. Putin, it appears, is aware that this move could potentially create a power vacuum in the region and an advantage for the US, Turkey, and Israel. HE is determined to ensure that this does not occur. Kaleji argues that “In such a situation, Israel would increase air attacks on Iranian military positions and bases in Syria, as Tel Aviv worries that a military vacuum would be filled by Iran or proxy forces, such as Lebanese Hezbollah.” Some Middle East analysts in Washington are suggesting that such a void could allow the US to increase its military presence east of the Euphrates and also permit Turkey a free hand on conducting military operations in Kurdish-held areas in northern Syria.

President Erdogan wants Putin to abide their previous agreement which calls for Moscow to work with Washington to help push outlawed Kurdish militants 30 kilometers away from the Syrian-Turkish border. It has not occurred to date. Erdogan this week again publicly called it “long overdue.” Daily Sabah reported recently that the Turkish president informed Russian and Iranian leaders that he “expected their full support in Ankara’s fight against terrorists in Syria.” “Putin’s presence at the summit in Tehran,” according to Kaleji, “contained a message to all players in Syria: Russia has not lost its focus and military power in Syria because of Ukraine.”

There is a large potential for Russia to build infrastructure and other economic projects inside Syria. Putin does not want to walk away from any financially lucrative deals. He is playing a strong poker hand, knowing he can use his military’s ongoing presence in the country as a pressure lever against the democratic West over his “special military action” in Ukraine.

Tehran and Moscow hold similar views on the security threat in the Levant region. Both also oppose Turkey’s military operations in northern Syria and the US military presence east of the Euphrates. Islamic Republic News Agency is reporting this week that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in a press conference with Putin and Erdogan, reinforced that “the US presence east of the Euphrates is unjustifiable, so the Americans should pull out.” All is not calm among the players. Differences surface between Russia and Iran over Israeli military operations in Syria. “Russia has not provided full air coverage of Iranian positions in Syria during Israeli airstrikes,” according to Kaleji. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to Islamic Republic News on July 19, “praised the Russian president’s recent anti-Zionist stance” in an escalation of the discord between Israel and Russia over Tel Aviv’s support for Ukraine. Iran is seeking Russian support to counter Israeli military operations in Syria. It appears that expanded consultations by Russia and Iran in the future may be used to dampen Turkey’s operations in Syria, according to TASS. Putin may be busy fighting in Ukraine, but it is not stopping his long-term strategic plans in the Middle East.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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