Russia gains From Biden Debacle

Putin is smiling wide this week as his “…propaganda machine describes the hasty and disorganized withdrawal of the United States and allied forces from Afghanistan, along with the collapse of their Afghan allies, as a turning point, signaling the decline of US regional and global power and credibility,” says Pavel Felgenhauer of the Jamestown Foundation. Earlier this week the Russian publication RG.RU called out President Biden saying, “Perhaps the 78-year-old US president has already forgotten, or perhaps does not want to remember, what he promised the Afghans and the whole world 20 years ago, when he supported the invasion of Afghanistan. But to his misfortune, the American archives and the vastness of the Internet store all of his statements. It is not surprising that Biden limited himself to a statement and did not accept questions from the press – too much in his words was anti-history.” Another Russian publication depicted side-by-side quotes from Biden in which he earlier supported US troops in Afghanistan and then later on “changed his shoes” [smenil obuv’] and spoke against it. Russian publications across the board mocked the President.

They quoted his 2000-2001 speeches, including one before the US Senate in which he said: “Security is a basic issue for Afghanistan. We must do it at all costs. History will judge us harshly if we let the hopes of the freed Afghans evaporate as we go astray.” Russian writers also used quotes from American publications against Biden, including a 2010 Business Insider article which quoted Biden as saying “To hell with this, there is no need to worry about it. We did this in Vietnam, Nixon and Kissinger got away with it.” Propaganda with a twist of truth is effective and this week Moscow was at work at home and abroad.

The Russian propaganda machine was in full swing this week taking advantage of every perceived US weakness and contradictory statement made by President Biden to show the world the Washington is a changeable partner when it comes to foreign policy. The Russian government pushed the idea that Washington will be a fair-weather friend should Putin decide to move in the Ukraine and suggested it would be better for Kiev to align with Moscow over Washington.

Felgenhauer says that the speaker of the State Duma (lower chamber of the Russian parliament), Vyacheslav Volodin, “has written that the entire US foreign policy is collapsing.” He points out that Volodin accuses Washington of facilitating an increase of opiate production in Afghanistan “hundreds of times” while impoverishing the Afghan people. The US and its Western allies have been spending staggering amounts of money to “promote democracy,” but the results have been of little value.” Nikolai Patrushev, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Russian counterpart in US-Russian consultations, also was active this week accusing the US military of “misappropriating billions of taxpayers’ dollars designated to arm and train the Afghan security forces that melted away as the Taliban swept in.”

Patrushev, Putin’s go to, right-hand man claimed the Americans were involved in Afghan opioid production and trade and the US military-industrial complex profiteered on procurement connected with the war. In the Russian publication Izvestia, Alexey Zabrodin wrote that Patrushev called Ukrainian leaders US lackeys and suggested to abandon the US. The Secretary of the Russian Security Council pointed out to Ukrainians that the US set Afghanistan back decades and suggested that is what will happen to them if they side the United States.

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According to Zabrodin, “The confidence of the military and political leadership of the United States and its allies that they fully controlled the situation in Afghanistan led to ignorance and underestimation of the real situation… This is partly the result of the incompetence of the intelligence services of the United States, Britain and other NATO countries, which, apparently, did not sufficiently purposefully approach the collection and analysis of information or did not work well with it.”

Effective propaganda contains a bit of the truth. It encourages the reader to accept that the story is plausible, perhaps probable, and this week certainly unforgettable. With Russia’s assistance, the Ukraine and America’s allies will have a difficult time erasing this week in history from their memories.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Photo: Vladimir Putin (Russian government site)

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.