Russia and the Taliban – USA Gov Policy

Putin is not quite as ecstatic as some analysts in Washington might like to believe since the US departure from Afghanistan. The Biden Administration’s botched withdrawal has not only destabilized the Central Asian country but also raised the risk of conflict throughout Central Asia. That is not good for Russian national security or for Putin’s plans to revitalize the “Motherland” to its long-gone days of strength and glory. While the United States was occupied with the war in Afghanistan Putin was freer to operate in the North Caucuses and elsewhere without much concern about pushback from the United States. While it leaves Russia along with China, India, and Pakistan, in a preeminent position to influence the Taliban since August 15, Putin is scrambling to protect Russia’s interests in country and the nearby Central Asian states.

Over the years Russia has maintained a close relationship with factions of the Taliban leadership. He has hosted them at meetings in Moscow since 2019. Putin now needs to ensure that the more extreme of those factions will not oppose Moscow’s influence in the Central Asian states. He doesn’t want to see support for groups that might arouse rebelliousness among Russia’s Muslim minority communities grow in confidence. Finally, Putin knows that claims of victory by the Taliban could create a spillover immigration issue inside the former Soviet border states if they enflame local Muslim separatists. Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defense analysts for Novaya Gazeta, points out that the Central Asian states tend to be pro-Western regimes that are rich in natural resources, including gas, oil, and gold. That he argues, “could make Central Asia go up in flames.” Felgenhaurer points to factions that would welcome it, saying that it might take the form of an insurgency, a propaganda movement supported by a Muslim Brotherhood-style group or outright physical conflict.

An active Sunni Muslim insurgency would not only ignite the former Soviet states, but also unite them against Putin. It puts Putin in a dangerous situation. Russia has interests on the ground in the region that include military space force communications installations, such as the Nurak Military Observatory located only 63 miles from the Afghan border in the mountains of Tajikistan. This site, in operation since the Soviet era, has been upgraded numerous times and is critical to the Russian space program. Its low-light remote location, along with recent expensive technical upgrades, make it unlikely that Putin could afford to replace it.

Although the Taliban has indicated to Putin that they will not incite problems for Russia in Central Asia, analysts in Moscow are unsure that the group can maintain adequate control over Afghan territory to ensure independent jihadist groups won’t create security problems. Russia has increased the ground troop strength of its “motor-rifle division” at the 101^st base in Central Asia. Although it is now a fully-staffed division that is highly disciplined, it will have challenges if it has to defend against an insurgency along a lightly defended, long border area in Tajikistan. Felgenhaurer suggests that Russia also might have to deal with small groups of insurgents affiliated with ISIS that cause unrest among the local populations.

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Russia’s ambassador is remaining active in Kabul although Moscow is not seeking anything from the country other a stabilized situation in the region. Reports indicate that at an August 23 meeting in Moscow, Putin in true Russian fashion, slammed his fist on the table saying – no Americans, no American bases or drone operations are to be allowed and no anti-terrorism cooperation with Washington. Putin is reported to be genuinely unhappy that a population, not a government, was able to succeed in overthrowing Afghanistan’s rulers in a region that could serve as the head of a spear for other movements. It serves as a powerful demonstration, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation, of a Taliban comeback in an area where other Taliban sympathizers may become more widespread.

Another aspect not generally reported in the news is that the Taliban are running low on money to run the country. It is a strong indicator that the Taliban will be turning to increased drug trafficker to bring in much needed funds in the short run. The drug trade in northern Afghanistan moves the product across both the northern and southern borders of the country and, eventually into the Russian federation and Europe. Putin will not be able to ignore the flow of heroin into his country. He has urged the heads of the Central Asian states to increase their border security, but it is not a very effective strategy against the drug traffickers. It leaves the Russian leader and Central Asian states in a precarious position going forward. The coming months will determine if the Taliban are able to govern the fractured country, maintain a semblance of security over the population, and avert a major conflict in the region that could draw in the great powers.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy.

Picture: Pixabay

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Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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