Returning Tanks Reassure Europeans

As the Obama Administration concluded its tenure, major reversals were required to undo the extraordinary foreign and defense policy errors that were committed over the past eight years in Europe, the Middle East, the Pacific and within the Western hemisphere.

Without warning to the general public, the White House withdrew all American tanks from Europe in 2014. It was an unprecedented move. American armor had been in place in Europe since the end of World War 2. Russia, no longer faced with a credible deterrent, increased its level of belligerency to exceptional levels. Now, American armor is hastily being returned. Russian sources are using the return to incorrectly allege that tensions are being ramped up by NATO.

A cold war era storage facility was opened in the Netherlands in December to accommodate the return. According to former Defense Secretary Ash Carter, U.S. tanks will be used on a “rotational” basis. The first rotational brigade will come from Colorado.

“It will have an initial exercise in Poland. After that, the brigade will send company-sized units to Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states,” Carter had previously told reporters. “Companies will then remain in the Baltics until the NATO battalions arrive.” In June, the brigade will conduct exercise Saber Strike in Poland and throughout the Baltic states, and in July, it will move to Bulgaria and Romania for exercises Swift Response and Saber Guardian, during which one tank company will transit the Black Sea to Georgia to participate in exercise Noble Partner, he said.The secretary said he appreciate the countries that will host the brigade. Carter said the United States will also lead a battalion in Poland as part of NATO’s new enhanced forward presence.

The 4^th Infantry Division’s 3^rd Armored Brigade Combat Team has already arrived in Poland, a move described by U.S. Army General Curtis M. Scaparrotti as “a significant moment in European deterrence and defense.”

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This effort is part of the European Reassurance Initiative (ERI) to maintain persistent, rotational presence of air, land, and sea forces in Central and Eastern Europe. The ERI, originally proposed in Warsaw on June 3, 2014, was made necessary both by Moscow’s attack on the Ukraine and on the growing perception that the Obama administration was not dedicated to U.S. defense commitments. Significant doubts were raised by a decreasing defense budget, the failure to respond in any significant way to the Kremlin’s takeover of Crimea, and the failure of the Obama Administration to come to the aid of the Philippines following China’s incursion into Manila’s offshore Exclusive Economic Zone.

The Department of Defense describes the ERI as an effort “reassure our NATO allies and bolster the security and capacity of our partners. The United States, along with its NATO allies, will continue to take actions that increase the capability, readiness, and responsiveness of NATO forces to address any threat or destabilizing action…DoD would also seek to help shore up the defenses of NATO members, as well as other non-NATO partners in the region, that feel most threatened by Russia’s actions against Ukraine. The DoD would continue pursuing several lines of effort to accomplish the purposes of this initiative, including: (1) continued increased U.S. military presence in Europe; (2) additional bilateral and multilateral exercises and training with allies and partners; (3) improved infrastructure to allow for greater responsiveness; (4) enhanced prepositioning of U.S. equipment in Europe; and (5) intensified efforts to build partner capacity for newer NATO members and other partners.

According to the Department of Defense “Russian malign influence and aggression against NATO and its allies is a key factor in Europe’s instability and drastic changes in its strategic environment. Following Russia’s attempt to annex Crimea and its activities in Ukraine…the potential for Russia to ‘further advance its military adventurism into NATO countries has demanded a strong response…As we continue to see a malign influence and a Russia acting to upset international norms, we have transitioned beyond purely assurance to serving as a strong deterrent against Russian aggression…because of the changed atmosphere, Eucom [the U.S. European Command] is planning and executing a stronger deterrent to Russian aggression.”

According to the Associated Press and military.com “Poles waved and held up American flags as U.S. troops in tanks and other vehicles crossed into southwestern Poland from Germany and headed toward the town of Zagan, where they will be based.”

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.