Response to Harvey – USA Gov Policy

Please note: we will conclude our analysis of Europe’s leaders tomorrow.

The devastation in Houston requires a nationwide response. There are several ways to send help:

Hurricane Harvey Relief Fund, established by Houston Mayor S. Turner. Tax-deductible online credit card donations should be sent via www.ghcf.org. (a small fee will applies.)

American Red Cross. Go to redcross.org, or call 1- 800-RED CROSS.

Salvation Army: Go to www.helpsalvationarmy.org or call 1-800-725-2769.

Catholic Charities USA: Go to catholiccharitiesusa.org.

The Washington Post notes: “The rain from Harvey is in a class of its own. The storm has unloaded over 50 inches of rain east of Houston, the greatest amount ever recorded in the Lower 48 states from a single storm. And it’s still raining. John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist, said a rain gauge near Mont Belvieu at Cedar Bayou, about 40 miles east of Houston, had registered 51.9 inches of rain through late Tuesday afternoon. This total exceeds the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical cyclone Amelia in Medina, Texas in 1978.”
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Unlike the botched response to Hurricane Katrina by former New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin, (D) (who was eventually convicted to a 10-year sentence for bribery and fraud committed while he was in office,) and the incompetence of former governor Kathleen B. Blanco, (D) the response by President Trump, Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, and Texas Governor Greg Abbott has been timely and effective.

American Thinker reported that “President Bush declared the state of Louisiana a disaster area 48 hours before Katrina made landfall and asked Blanco to order a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans on Aug. 27, a full two days before the hurricane hit. Neither Blanco nor Nagin ordered city buses to help evacuate those residents who couldn’t leave on their own even though the city’s own emergency plan mandated it and acknowledged there were at least 100,000 people who couldn’t make it out without help…After not evacuating the city, the Louisiana Department of Homeland Security blocked a convoy of Red Cross trucks filled with water, food, blankets and hygiene items from the New Orleans Superdome after Katrina struck.”

A number of pressure groups have attempted to use the disaster to further political rhetoric. Climate change extremists have attempted to blame warming for the event, but that overlooks the actual reason the damage has been so severe. As noted by RealClearScience “storms striking Texas represented problems long before…One of the deadliest storms in US history occurred in 1900, when a hurricane swept ashore over Galveston, killing more than 6,000 people – more than triple Hurricane Katrina’s death toll in 2005. We often do not know details about the strength of past hurricanes or the height of their floodwaters. But we do know that fewer people lived – and much less infrastructure lay – along the storms’ paths. Yet tragedies such as Galveston still manifested…”

Absurdly, MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle, as reported by Glen Beck, asked whether illegal immigrants would be deported if they went to storm shelters. To our knowledge, no such action had even been contemplated.

Because of the exceptionally expensive and prolonged cost of returning to normalcy in the wake of Harvey, Congress will have to make some decisions. Some fear that regional hard feelings may come into play, since some Texas representatives were not considered cooperative in providing funding following Hurricane Sandy, which affected the Northeast. However, those fears appear unfounded as of this point. As U.S. News , Northeastern Representatives have already tweeted their intentions: “Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., on Monday said …I’ll vote 4 Harvey aid. NY won’t abandon Texas…Above all, true Americans must stand together. New Jersey Republican Rep. Frank LoBiondo agreed. “I will support emergency disaster $$ for those impacted,” he wrote. “Disasters & emergencies are just that…disasters & emergencies. Must stand together as Americans.”

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.