At a speech in Helsinki last week, US Secretary of State Tony Blinken said that “When you look at President Putin’s long-term strategic aims and objectives, there is no question: Russia is significantly worse off today than it was before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine – militarily, economically, geopolitically.” While that may be true from one perspective, another looms on the horizon that needs to be addressed by Western leaders.
In the next year Russia is likely to have a greater impact on the West and global trade than in recent decades, while also emerging as more dangerous threat to the democratic West, than acknowledged by the Biden Administration. A cornered and weak Putin, according to intelligence analysts in Washington, is capable of striking out with great force against those who oppose his goal of reconstituting the Russian Empire. He’s getting encouragement from Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who benefits from Russia’s keeping the West engaged outside of Asia. Unlike the earlier Soviet era, China is the more dominant partner coaxing Russia into geopolitical challenges that benefit Beijing’s global ambitions. One region of interest to both Russia and China is the Arctic and the potential year-round opening of the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
In a recent video conference, the Russian president called the NSR “extremely important” to Russia as its potential year round opening fulfills a dream first envisioned three centuries ago by Tsar Peter the Great… an all-water route from the Barents Sea to the Pacific through his empire’s coastal Arctic waters. Mike Shuler, writing in the maritime publication GCaptain, says that Russia’s Minister for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic, Alexei Chekunkov, reported that freight traffic along the NSR already has increased from 4 million tons in 2014 to 34 million tons last year, making it a major transport corridor for the export of oil, LNG, minerals, fertilizers, metals, and other products.
It will require an upgrade of the region’s infrastructure, from cargo hubs and ports to additional Russian icebreakers and ice-class ships, according to Chekunkov. Technological advances in navigation and steel-hulled icebreakers, along with today’s powerful maritime engines and global trade environment, make the Arctic a highly prized transport highway. Ninety years after Otto Shmidt’s expedition sailed the first Soviet icebreaker, Aleksandr Sibiriakov, through the Arctic from Arkhangel’sk to the Bering Strait without wintering, it appears Putin will be fulfilling the earlier dream of Peter the Great, only now Russia will not be the only nation to benefit from the NSR. China stands to gain in many ways since Putin has placed the NSR under Rosatomflot’s control 13 months ago. The West will be increasingly occupied with Russia’s Arctic plans and China will acquire a new shorter passageway to the Atlantic Ocean, European markets, and the American East coast.
Sanctions stimulated Russia to seek new avenues for its exports and elevated development of the NSR to a high priority, with China’s backing. Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev met with Putin recently to discuss the region. He confirmed that “Together with Novatek, we are planning to launch year-round navigation in the eastern part of the NRS next year.” Despite sanctions on Russia, the NSR will play an important global trade role for energy importing nations, such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. John Daly, of the Jamestown Foundation says that “Since 2013, COSCO Shipping, China’s largest shipping company, has made more than 20 transit voyages along the route, escorted by Russian Rosatomflot nuclear icebreakers.” While many economic constraints exists for the route’s development, China has shown an interest in asserting itself in the region.
“Impelled by 11 rounds of unwanted Western sanctions, Chekunkov said that his department’s goal is to ensure that the NSR can transit up to 100 million tons by 2026 and 200 million tons by 2030,” according to Daly. Putin needs Beijing’s interest in the NSR for financial reasons. For Beijing, the NSR is the single guaranteed secure maritime transport corridor if the United States and its allies try to block China’s Pacific trade routes. Russia and China want a trade route. One question is what else is China after by pushing for the NSR? The world may know as soon as next year.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.