Population Decrease – USA Gov Policy

The growth of the world’s population is expected to flatten out by the end of the century to a 0.1% annual increase. Some nation-states are feeling the impact of lower birth rates earlier than others. One of those countries is Russia. According to a PEW Research Center report, the global fertility rate in 2100 with be 1.9%, representing a dramatic drop from the current numbers. Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated the problem for Moscow. The country’s economy is drained by the twin challenges of military and economic losses and now faces harsh structural challenges, according to Sergey Sukhankin of the Jamestown Foundation. One of the greatest immediate tasks for Vladimir Putin, is to find a way to develop a qualified workforce to help minimize the impact of Western sanctions.

Russia’s war in Ukraine depleted the country of able-bodied, working aged men. Battlefield losses are coupled with increased emigration by those seeking to avoid military service or serving on the front lines. Although Rosstat, Russia’s official statistical agency, has been suppressing the numbers lost in combat, those numbers are needed for military planning and are slowing being released. They are devastating to the future growth of the Russian economy. What is known today is that combat deaths, reported under the label “external sources,” now account for 40 percent of all “external causes” of 18-29 years old Russian men and represent a significant, long-term, structural challenge to the regime.

To help alleviate the labor problems resulting from the war and Western sanctions, Putin turned to integrating prison labor in some sectors of the domestic economy. “Moscow has tried to veil these efforts by silencing experts and activists who have been vocal about the re-emergence of prison labor in the economy,” according to Sukhankin. Russia faced labor shortages in the past. In 2013, Oleksandr Podrabinek, of Imrussia.org, reported that human rights advocates were concerned about how the country was addressing serious shortages of manpower. “Strictly speaking, this problem has never disappeared, but public attention is drawn to it only from time to time. And this is understandable,” Podrabinek says, as “it is difficult to live with the constant understanding that voluntarily or involuntarily we use the fruits of salve labor.” Those in Russia’s slave labor camps typically suffer through 15-17 hour workdays, seven days a week in deplorable conditions, to supply the country with a wide variety of products.

Vedomosti.ru reports that that the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) argued in favor of dramatically increasing the “use of prison labor in areas where there is a visible lack of foreign migrants.” The Russian Ministry of Justice added to it by suggesting that an increased reliance on prison labor could support strategic infrastructure projects in the Artic and Siberia. Sukhankin points out that Russian officials proposed using convicts for work along the Baikal-Amur Magistral (BAM) 2,687-mile-long railway, which is an alternative to the Trans-Siberian line. Several major Russian corporations, including Rosatom, Rostec, Rosano, and Roscosmos, are believed to be behind the initiative and will benefit from cheap and easily accessible labor. In August 2022, Sukhankin says that the All-Russia Public Organization’s Business Russia began testing Russian businesses readiness to incorporate an increased number of prison laborers in the operation. He says that according to the project’s findings, as many as between 100,000-180,000 convicts may be forced into harsh prison labor conditions in construction, agriculture, forestry, mining and clothing manufacturing.

Arkady Gostev, head of FSIN, and Boris Titov, Russia’s presidential commissioner for entrepreneurs’ rights have actively lobbied Sergey Chemezov, head of Rostec with Titov claiming the convicts are “a discipline workforce” that could help Russia’s labor shortage. In 2022, approximately 9,300 prisoners were employed by Russian firms. By August 2023 that number has risen to 26,000 convicts. There is concern from abroad that the Kremlin is not accurately portraying how labor is used. Dw.com/ru in March reported that they may be involved in the production of weapons and military equipment. Earlier this year, British intelligence supported the DW report and indicated that it was an ongoing practice since August 2022. The reinstated Gulag style system appears reminiscent of the days of the Soviet economy, where it acted as the “manager” of the prison workforce on behalf of the state.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.