The failure of the Obama Administration to respond to China’s aggression both in general and towards the Philippines in particular may have been a crucial factor in the alienation that took place between Washington and Manila.
The facts are harsh and undeniable. China is now in possession of almost every off shore Philippine oceanic economic claim, although following the recent anti-American statements by President Duterte it appears that some access has been allowed. From the 2011 attack on Philippine fishing boats within Manila’s Exclusive Economic Zone and up to the present, America has essentially been missing in action in response to the aggression. Overall, the United States has barely lifted a finger to assist one of its oldest regional allies, failing even to lodge diplomatic protests at some of China’s most serious offenses.
Beijing’s actions have not been subtle. Chinese military vessels have threatened civilian Philippine fishing vessels.
While there have been past episodes of pique between Washington and Manila (in 1991, the U.S. was told to leave its naval base in Subic Bay) the current tilt towards China may prove to be the most serious split between the two nations. President Duterte has stated that he wants all U.S. troops to leave his nation within two years. American armed forces currently reside within five Philippine-run camps. They are rotated in the nation and are not considered permanently based there.
Speaking at a meeting in China’s Great Hall of the People, Duterte stated, according to the Malaya Business Insight publication, “Your honors, in this venue I announce my separation from the United States…So I will be dependent on you for all time…America has lost now…No more American influence. No more American [military] exercises. It’s time to say goodbye, my friend.”
According to the Russian news source RT Beijing and Manila discussed a number of measures, including joint access to the resource-rich offshore areas which the world court at the Hague belong to the Philippines but which China has illegally occupied. RT also reports that “The Philippines will pursue ‘independent’ foreign and military policies separate from US interests in the region, the country’s president said, announcing that in order to avoid any confrontations with China he would halt joint Filipino navy patrols with the US. The Asian country may now also look toward China and Russia in order to acquire new weapons so that it can improve its capabilities tackling insurgencies and terrorism in the country.
While disinviting U.S. troops is not unprecedented, the potential realignment with China is. It is particularly unusual in light of Beijing’s almost universally condemned aggression against the Philippines. However, during a recent state visit to Japan, Duterte assured Tokyo that he would not militarily align his nation with China.
There appears to be a specific element of anger involved in Duterte’s actions, aimed directly at President Obama. He has frequently launched diatribe-filled statements at the White House.
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It remains to be seen how real the split becomes. Despite Duterte’s rhetoric, notes the Wall Street Journal, “Filipinos remain staunchly pro-American, with a recent Social Weather Stations survey finding 76% have ‘much trust’ in the U.S., versus 22% for China. Filipinos know about Beijing’s South China Sea abuses, and they know that when Typhoon Haiyan struck in 2013 the U.S. sent an aircraft carrier and $20 million in aid while China initially chipped in $100,000.” There is also a question whether he can fulfill his anti-U.S. military goal. There has been no move on Manila’s part to abandon the two nation’s 65-year-old mutual defense pact or the two-year-old agreement to rotate U.S. troops in local military facilities.”
The National Interest notes that “The Obama administration continues to equivocate on the question of whether the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty … covers Philippine-claimed land features in the South China Sea.” But technical interpretations of treaties are not the point in question. There is a disturbing pattern in U.S. foreign policy during the Obama presidency and the tenure of both Hillary Clinton and John Kerry at the State Department, one that seems counter-intuitive to American interests.
Russia was given a beneficial nuclear arms treaty at the start of the Obama Administration, and only very weak sanctions were imposed when it invaded Ukraine. No penalty has been attached for its violation of an intermediate-range nuclear missile pact. No action has been taken in response to Moscow’s militarization of the Arctic, or it’s turning Nicaragua into a landing base for its nuclear bombers.
Similarly, no action has been taken in response to China’s clearly illegal and aggressive actions, including those directly affecting U.S. allies.
Iran, despite its role as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, has been given vast sums of cash.
More examples could be provided, but the point is already obvious: The U.S., through the pacifism of the Obama Administration, is in danger of losing its allies, as the expansionist actions of Russia, China and Iran go unanswered.
President Duterte appears to be open to improving relations with Washington following the results of the 2016 U.S. election.