Pakistan’s Tragedy – USA Gov Policy

Popular theory suggests that humans can only intuitively grasp small, single digit numbers. Any more than that and our understanding morphs from recognizing a numeric value to only seeing patterns or abstractions that require the mediation of language. This is true, for example, when we look at trees. Once the number increases, we no longer recognize individual branches, or even full trees. Instead, our brains only register a pattern we label as a “forest.” In the same way it is challenging for humans to fully grasp the extent of a refugee crisis such the one resulting from the war in Ukraine, the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, or the vast impact of a natural disaster like the recent catastrophic and deadly flooding across Pakistan.

In an area only 9.6 percent the size of the United States, Pakistan contains a population that is over two-thirds the size of our population. The latest floods in that country displaced nearly 8 million people or almost the same number of individuals as reside in all of New York City. Pakistan’s population totals over 225 million today, or 67.8% of that of the US. Even these few numbers lose much of their meaning due to their size, except to the humans intimately involved in each crisis.

This week world leaders came together in New York City to attend the United Nations General Assembly. They discussed Ukraine, the flood waters in Pakistan, and the resulting outbreaks of cholera, malaria, and dengue fever. It is a serious crisis for the many thousands of pregnant Pakistani women and the more than 3 million children needing immediate care. One set of numbers that the politicians should grasp is that floodwaters covering one-third of Pakistan may take a full six months to recede.

Officials in Islamabad are responding to worst disaster in a hundred years and need international humanitarian assistance unlinked to a political agenda. The National Flood Response and Coordination Center in Pakistan is providing updates to the world and aid to the people where possible. One good fact is that most vital rescue missions are complete with people moved to higher ground. The crisis is not over. Agricultural fields remain inundated, and the people lack enough food, shelter, and health care. The numbers do not begin to explain the extend of the challenge faced by a international donor weary world. The United Nations has only reached a third of its goal of raising $39 million in a global economy already suffering from supply chain shocks over Covid, the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, and now the war in Ukraine.

The State Department announced today that the Foreign Ministers of Australia, India and Japan and the Secretary of State met in New York on Friday and signed into operation the Guidelines for the ‘Quad Partnership on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) in the Indo-Pacific’. At first glance it appears a step forward in addressing the concerns of states in the region that often suffer from tsunami and other natural disasters. A full reading of the document, however, emphasizes a very different agenda of the Biden Administration.

While Ukraine, Afghanistan, and now Pakistan’s citizens are suffering in massive numbers, the Biden Administration announcement highlights that “Under the partnership, Quad partners will promote inclusion by advancing gender equality and women’s and girl’s empowerment, ensuring persons with disabilities are agents and beneficiaries of humanitarian action, and by ensuring indigenous people, minority groups and persons in vulnerable situations are not left behind. The guidelines call for zero tolerance for inaction on tackling Sexual Exploitation, Abuse and Harassment (SEAH).” The Biden Administration appears to be redefining what constitutes a humanitarian crisis. Whether one state is allied with another, during a major crisis world leaders need to come together to address the immediate needs of the population struggling to survive and not push a radical political agenda. It appears the US is changing how it prioritizes humanitarian crises.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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