Obama’s unjustified optimism

A realistic assessment of international dangers facing the United States and its allies was completely missing from the President’s State of the Union Address.

Unfortunately for Mr. Obama, a number of serious incidents this week splashed icy cold water on his assessment that the world had turned a corner on issues such as terrorism and global relations. Consider just a few specific items that apparently the Commander-in-Chief wasn’t briefed on or didn’t care to discuss:

As talks with Cuba prepared to commence, a Russian spy ship docked in that island nation, another entry into the growing Russian, Chinese, and Iranian military presence in Latin America.
In Argentina, a prosecutor who is reviewing Iranian involvement in a past terrorist attack was found dead just before he could testify.
In the African nation of Namibia, discussions are underway to develop a Chinese naval base in the Walvis Bay area.
In Yemen, often cited by the White House as a Middle Eastern success story, militant Shiites invaded the Presidential palace.
The Russians have developed new and more potent missiles, part of a massive military buildup that in some areas violates past arms accords.
China continues its own extraordinary military buildup, continuing at a pace faster than either the U.S. or the U.S.S.R. did at the height of the Cold War.
Terrorists control more geography than ever in the Middle East, and are poised to make gains in Afghanistan as well.
North Korea and Iran continue on with their nuclear and missile development programs as well.
All of this occurs as the United States and its allies continue to underfund their own militaries. With clearly no threat from the west, what justification can Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea provide for their vast weapons programs and aggressive tactics?

These days, you can generic viagra tadalafil find websites that are selling all type of herbal products. Gokhru improves functioning of viagra best buy reproductive system. Only a few days ago, the World Health Organization, proclaimed that cell phones were possibly carcinogenic. viagra free sample How to treat erectile dysfunction? A sexologist or rather a sex spe online pharmacies viagrat is the person credited for myofascial release, a massage therapy of the male organ to boost the flow of blood.
It is increasingly difficult to understand Mr. Obama’s foreign policy views.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.