Past administrations have refrained from making the necessary tough decisions regarding North Korea and Iran, choosing instead to pass the buck to future commanders in chief. Unfortunately, that future is today.

President Clinton’s policies erroneously sought to dissuade Pyongyang from developing nuclear weapons through food aide. President Obama’s policies ended sanctions and delivered mammoth amounts of cash to Tehran before receiving any guarantees of Iran’s cessation of belligerence, which continues through its banned missile tests. The world now faces the horrifying prospect of a North Korean regime on the verge of being able to launch nuclear missiles to any target on the planet. Iran is North Korea’s partner in the development of atomic weapons and advance missiles.

The latest Hwasong-14 missile launch from North Korea confirms that the Pyongyang regime has successfully attained the capability to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMS.) Experts believe that the rocket used in the launch could reach Alaska, Hawaii, and the states of the Pacific northwest as well as American bases in Guam, South Korea and Japan. North Korea’s reach may currently extend to the continental U.S. itself, as its recent submarine-launched missile (SLBM) tests may indicate.

America’s ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, has labelled the test “not only dangerous but reckless and irresponsible…It showed that North Korea does not want to be part of a peaceful world. They have cast a dark shadow of conflict on all nations that strive for peace…[the] act came from the same vicious dictator who sent a young college student back home…in a coma … If North Korea will treat an innocent young student the way it treated Otto Warmbier, we should not be surprised if it acts barbarically on a larger scale.”

Ambassador Haley singled out the issue of nations trading with North Korea, a direct response to China’s continued trade with the Pyongyang regime. According to Haley, “Much of the burden of enforcing U.N. sanctions rests with China…We will work with China, we will work with any and every country that believes in peace. But we will not repeat the inadequate approaches of the past that have brought us to this dark day.” President Trump has stated that “If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will.” In a twitter post, he stated: “Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40 pct in the first quarter. So much for China working with us – but we had to give it a try!”

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) notes that “China is North Korea’s most important ally, biggest trading partner, and main source of food and energy. It has helped sustain Kim Jong-un’s regime, and has historically opposed harsh international sanctions on North Korea… China’s purchases from its neighbor include minerals, seafood, and manufactured garments. In the first quarter of 2017, China–North Korea trade was up 37.4 percent from the same period in 2016. ‘China is currently North Korea’s only economic backer of any importance,’ writes Nicholas Eberstadt, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute… China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States have provided more than 75 percent of food aid to North Korea since 1995, but donations from all countries except for China have shrunk significantly since the collapse of the Six Party Talks in 2009.”

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ABC reports that “Chinese purchases of North Korean iron ore, a key export for the mineral-rich North, rose 34 percent over a year earlier…Chinese oil sales to the North rose 18 percent in the first five months of the year to $35 million…”

The reality is there is very little chance that any action before the international body will be successful, or accomplish anything more than pious statements. Despite their rhetoric, Russia continues to supply advanced arms to Iran, and China continues to prop up the Pyongyang regime.

With no diplomatic solution in sight, and the exceptional and indeed existential danger potentially imminent, military options are being discussed. Those options, however, come at a time when the United States military is at its weakest point in decades due to the Obama-era disinvestment, and when its main adversaries Russia and China are reaping the benefits of massive increases in funding for their armed forces.

According to 38 North, a site specializing in North Korean information, “We had thought that we would have until perhaps early 2020 to prepare for a North Korean ICBM capability, but it turns out they were working on a different timetable. That has serious strategic, diplomatic and political implications for the very near future…US military commanders cannot be 100 percent certain that a war on the Korean peninsula won’t stretch at least as far as Hawaii or Alaska. Soon, US allies will wonder if this is going to affect US commitments to defense and stability in the region. And the US political leadership is going to have to figure out what to do about that.”

The same concern will soon extend to Iranian activities.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.