New Forms of Warfare in China Are Old Ones Repurposed for the 100th Anniversary of Communism

Over 2,000 years ago Sun Tzu, a famous Chinese general and military strategist best known in the West for his sayings in The Art of War, said “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war.…” It may be what we are witnessing in China today. Next year marks the prestigious 100^th anniversary of communism in China and symbolically is of great import to the CCP leadership.

Nuclear war is considered “a special case” of warfare and viewed generally as a 21^st century stalemate among the great powers possessing the weapons. Using them is on a scale of destruction too horrible to imagine for any rational nation-state. But that doesn’t mean war has gone away. What we see today in China is a revamping of conventional military spending priorities and strategies. Of particular concern is that President Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership have used the post-Cold War period to set new, conventional military goals for 2027 in the areas of mechanization and information warfare. The threat posed by China is real and it is global. What the CCP’s recent Party Plenum meeting called a need to “elevate national security” to a new level, presents an increased danger to nations opposing Chinese attempts to remake the world in its image.

Under the new five-year plan (FYP) economic, technological, and supply chain security clearly will be top domestic national security priorities for the communist giant. To ensure internal dissent is tamped down and doesn’t impact its expansive goals the CCP is requiring that all ministries only put forward plans and budgets that are fully agreed upon in advance of formally submitting them as part of the FYP. Externally, improving security means eliminating the weaknesses in conventional military areas. As Dean Chung of the Heritage foundation wrote recently: “While some units of the PLA employ data links, network-centric sensor-to-shooter system-of-systems, and field a variety of UAVs, electronic warfare platforms, and advanced combat capabilities, other units are still in the midst of simply shifting from towed artillery to self-propelled guns, improving their main battle tanks and becoming fully motorized.” This is significant because China is closing the remaining holes in its offensive strategy and the technologies needed to ensure its success. China floats the world’s largest navy. Its air force is closing the technology gap with the West.

During the initial stages of the recent military reorganization and modernization plan the PLA developed “integrated joint operations” (yitihua lianhe zuozhan; 一体化联合作战) and “civil-military fusion” (junmin ronghe; 军民融合) programs. China also established new “war zones” and replaced its theater commands. Historically, Chinese leaders have moved military commanders around to ensure that loyalty remains to the top CCP leaders in Beijing and that no regional military leaders compete for power with the central CCP. Unlike the Soviet Union, each Chinese advance in technology and strategy is completed at a measured pace to ensure the funding is available to follow through on the political plan. China is not imploding as some western analysts would like to believe. Washington needs to be concerned about the deliberateness and breadth of China’s long-term effort, from its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Beijing’s aggressive moves against democracy in Hong Kong, toward its claims on Taiwan, in its offensive posture in the South China Sea and elsewhere across the world.

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Nearly 20 years of double- digit military budget increases have enabled China to catch up with the West. What technology it has not developed internally it has stolen from abroad. It yields an air force of over 1,700 combat aircraft today. Only 35 years ago China could only put 50% of its air force in the sky at one time due to a lack of pilots and spare parts! It has come a lo ng way. Although China’s total number of ships has decreased slightly, it has improved greatly the advanced technologies of the existing ships, sales two aircraft carriers, and, overall, is a formidable fleet. Multiple classes of surface combatant ships are now in series production and include guided missile destroyers fielding long-range surface-to-air and anti-cruise missile systems and kilo-class submarines. This is not the military of Mao fighting with broomsticks.

China decided against spending large amounts on a nuclear deterrent as did the Soviet Union and the United States. Instead it is building a large and strong conventional force able to extend its reach across the world. Perhaps most concerning, is that strategists in Beijing appear to have the political willpower to fund its conventional military force and use it.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.