Moscow’s Nonstop Annexation

Invade… Capture… Annex… Repeat…. Where and when will Russia stop?

Transnistria (1992)
Abkhazia (1992)
South Ossetia (2008)
Crimea (2014)
Luhansk People’s Republic (2014)
Donetsk People’s Republic (2014)
Ukraine (2022?)

Russia has a violent history of annexing the territory of nearby over the border states in the post-Soviet era. The current war in Ukraine is Moscow’s latest attempt to dissect the country. President Vladimir Putin first ordered troops into the Crimean Peninsula eight years ago in February. On March 16, 2014, with armed men guarding the polls to ensure pro-Moscow results, Russia “won” a referendum in which Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine. Actual voter turnout was estimated at 30% with only about half of that number voting to secede. In a public ceremony four days later, Putin signed a treaty incorporating Crimea into the Russian Federation. Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula are recognized internationally as part of Ukraine. According to a White House official this week, Putin is using the same “playbook” as in past military incursions. John Kirby, the National Security Council’s coordinator for strategic communications, said in a White House briefing that “The Russian government is reviewing detailed plans to purportedly annex a number of regions in Ukraine, including Kherson, Zaporizhia, all of Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts.”

Ukraine recaptured Snake Island from Russia earlier in July but, in the eastern part of the country the military continues to lose territory to Putin’s armed forces. Luhansk is now under total Russian control. Kirby says that Russia is following a pattern similar to its earlier incursions that included installing illegitimate proxy officials in areas under its control in eastern Europe. The White House this week is predicting that Putin will call for a sham referendum in Ukraine to claim that the sovereign nation-state wants to join the Russian Federation. Kirby says the timeline for the Russian-sponsored “referendum” may coincide with regional elections scheduled for September 11. Already Russian banks are opening offices in eastern Ukraine, notes Defense One’s Jacqueline Feldscher. To give the appearance of normality, Moscow is forcing Ukrainians living in those eastern areas under its controls to apply for Russian citizenship and is issuing them new Russian passports. Feldscher reports that Kirby’s announcement is an example of Washington continuing to expose Putin’s gameplan so the world can be prepared for Russia’s next moves, and his attempts to obfuscate his intentions.

“Annexation by force would be a gross violation of the UN charter and we will not allow it to go unchallenged or unpunished,” says Kirby. The US, in response to Russian moves is sending additional weapons to Ukraine, including more HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems). On Tuesday the top Ukrainian military official, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, called the HIMARS, along with drones and longer-range rockets a “game changer.” He noted that the HIMARS already helped destroy 30 Russian command stations and an ammunition storage area, slowing Russia’s advance. The Defense Minister reported that his country is not using the weapons to attack inside Russian territory but is “using HIMARS systems precisely like… surgery.” He contrasted it with Russian strategy he compared to a “meat grinder” that has led to the deaths of hundreds of civilian casualties. Former US Ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst, called the Biden Administration risk adverse and argued that it is too timid. “Instead of giving… all the HIMARS… and the longer ranges, they parceled it out in very small dosages.” It appears that protracted warfare will continue in Ukraine as Putin shows no signs of ending his “special operation.” Some military analysts in Washington now are questioning whether Putin intends to stop once the conflict in Ukraine ends or if, as in the past, the Russian leader will continue on his quest to remake the Russian empire. Looking a map outlining the borders of the old empire, Putin has not completed his adventure.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Russian Defence Ministry

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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