Russian President Vladimir Putin is a trained, career intelligence officer who understands the psychological barriers he must overcome to convince the Russian population that his offensive action in Ukraine is necessary to achieve the long-term goal of returning Russia to empire status with great power standing among the world’s most powerful nation-states. It is a long-held desire the Russian people understand and support. Putin also knows there are additional challenges to surmount when special warfare includes the option of using nuclear weapons against a neighboring state.
In just under eight months Putin’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine has morphed from a limited border action to one drawing world attention, as city after city in Ukraine finds it civilian population targeted by Russian bombs. Putin’s forces have destroyed homes and left many civilians dead, including large numbers of women and children. Those not killed or injured often are forcibly relocated inside Russian territory, given Russian passports, and restricted from traveling back to their homes. What does Putin’s end game look like this fall?
President Zelensky said Friday that Putin has upped the ante by preparing for the possible use of nuclear weapons against the Ukrainian population. “They begin to prepare their society. That’s very dangerous,” he says. “They are not ready to do it, to use it. But they begin to communicate. They don’t know whether they’ll use or not use it. I think it’s dangerous to even speak about it,” he said. Military analysts in Washington agree. By preparing the population for an escalation from conventional warfare to a case of “special war” not seen since the Pacific in WWII, Putin is injecting the unthinkable into the realm of reality. In part it may be to enhance his sagging image domestically. As one analyst pointed out, “He needs an off ramp and Washington is not giving him one.” At the White House this week president Biden warned of the possibility of a nuclear escalation by Moscow. It was a dangerous move by the White House. Analysts suggest opening such a public dialogue by itself increases the threat level as it begins to normalize talk of nuclear warfare as a viable option to winning a land war in Europe.
This October the world is witnessing what started as a border incursion in February slowly devolve into a conflict that more closely resembles a proxy war between two nuclear-armed major powers – Russia vs the US. The escalation is undeniable. If Putin is backed into a corner, his latest war of words could easily turn into kinetic activity on the battlefield. President Biden’s giving credence to Putin’s threat this week has moved the world closer to a nuclear incident as it is now officially recognized, although not sanctioned, in both capitals as a viable form of warfare.
RAND Corporation published a report this week analyzing Russian coercive signaling. Although the research was conducted in 2020, it applies to Moscow’s current belligerent behavior that is threatening peace and stability in the region. The authors found solid empirical grounds to make judgments about Russia’s motives that are relevant to the situation in Ukraine and as well as future events. They suggest that much of the assertive, dangerous, or unsafe Russian activity appears to be “directed at shaping specific patterns of ongoing US or allied behavior.” Moscow, according to RAND, appears to be using coercive signals to send targeted messages regarding activities that it finds “problematic.”
Most Russian proactive activities, such as scheduled exercises or strategic bomber training flights, convey general deterrence signals. Without a response they do not pose immediate safety concerns. Using their analysis of past Russian behavior, the authors at RAND provide tools to discern the possible motives behind future Russian activities. What it reveals for the Ukraine theater of war is not all good news. Biden’s statements referencing Putin’s nuclear comments, moves the situation from one of psychological warfare to one that is closer to a physical reality.
The RAND report concludes that Russia’s messaging typically is a deliberative act. Moscow regularly conducts limited military actions that fall short of direct aggression but often creates “escalatory risks” with its hyperbole. According to the report, such puffery is better left unaddressed. It appears the Biden Administration took the bait. Even RAND, however, stops short of saying how far it believes Moscow would go beyond its belligerent words threatening a nuclear strike. The issue remains that the end result, intended by Putin or not, could lead to dramatic action by Moscow with dire consequences for the continental countries, and the world at large. There is no historical track record that a post-nuclear de-escalation with Russia is possible.
Washington needs to understand that Russia’s threats are purposeful and need to be taken seriously. The report suggests that when the Russian leadership feel threatened, it acts out. If a foreign government reacts ineffectively to the hyperbole, it inflames the situation and could turn Europe into a region-wide battleground. Putin’s war of words is likely to remain a verbal battle of blustery statements. In part, he is playing to a domestic audience. The West, needs to understand his motives and fine tune its responses to Putin’s statements to avoid pushing the Russian leader toward extreme measures.
Putin is guilty of initiating the war in Ukraine. Military analysts, however, point out that he is paranoid and could decide to use a military plan that is an exaggerated reaction to a perceived threat from Washington where none exists. The Biden Administration needs to carefully consider its public statements when casually naming the nuclear danger as it gives credibility to Putin’s threat and normalizes the use of nuclear weapons. Biden reinforced Putin’s fear of the West this week. It could unintentionally change the trajectory of world events. Putin does not want to appear as a blustering paper tiger leading a failed state. Washington should recognize the severity of the threat but not force Putin into a position where he must prove he is not weak. By cornering the Russian leader in a corner Biden is helping run the escalatory cycle to a nuclear finality.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.