The U.S. faces three existential crises. In Part 1, we discussed national security. In this section we review the national debt and education.
National Debt
The National Debt is closing in on 37 trillion. Fiscal Data notes that Over the past 100 years, the U.S. federal debt has increased from $395 B in 1924 to $35.46 T in 2024. The U.S. debt to GDP ratio surpassed 100% in 2013 when both debt and GDP were approximately 16.7 trillion, obviously an unsustainable situation. The national debt has increased every year over the past ten years. Interest expenses during this period have remained fairly stable due to low interest rates and investors’ judgement that the U.S. Government has a very low risk of default. However, recent increases in interest rates and inflation are now resulting in an increase in interest expense.
The General Accounting Office reports The federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path that poses serious economic, security, and social challenges. We reported that:
As of September 30, 2024, publicly held debt was $28.2 trillion, or 98% of the size of the economy Publicly held debt is projected to grow more than twice as fast as the economy, reaching 200% of the size of the economy by 2047. Government spending on net interest in FY 2024 exceeded federal spending on Medicare and national defense, and is projected to keep growing.
Attempts to address the debt are frequently met with harsh opposition by elected officials whose re-election chances are dependent on promise more to constituents.
Education
In 2024,The Nation’s Report Card reports that the average reading score for the nation at grade 4 was 2 points lower compared to 2022 and 5 points lower compared to 2019. NAEP scores are also reported at five selected percentiles to show the progress made by lower- (10th and 25th percentiles), middle- (50th percentile), and higher- (75th and 90th percentiles) performing students. The 2024 scores at all selected percentiles except the 90th were lower compared to 2022 percentile scores.
A Discovery.org study notes that “The results nationwide are dismal, according to the Nation’s Report Card. Virtually every major city shows declining proficiency for their students, even as school spending continues to increase. For years, we have been told that more money is what is needed to improve student learning. Yet more money has not worked for one simple reason: money is not the problem. The problem is the system.
In public education, we reward mediocrity and discourage excellence… A teacher cannot be fired for poor performance. Consequently, evaluations have little or no meaning…This lack of accountability is not limited to personnel but applies also to the expenditure of education funds.
Education Week Notes that “More countries are edging ahead of the United States in math and science achievement, according to the latest results from an international test of 4th and 8th graders in the subjects.”
America’s economic and cultural future depends on the educational success of its children. That success does not appear to likely under current conditions.
Conclusion
Any one of these crises would normally be enough to rock the nation. Yet, despite the warnings of individuals both in and out of government, there is not an adequate sense of urgency.