Russian influence operations are an important factor in its global hybrid warfare campaigns. In Georgia, a small nation-state located in the Black Sea region, the Kremlin is actively pursuing a campaign of combined military intervention and territorial occupation, economic embargoes, energy leverages, political corruption, and information warfare. Charles Horn, of the Center for New American Security, calls Putin’s Russia the “axis of upheaval.” In 2022, Russian foreign direct investment in Georgia peaked at $105.6 million, before slightly declining to 103.3 million in 2024. It is not the only great power interested in the country. China is also making inroads in Georgia, which serves as a pivotal transit hub for regional trade routes. Beijing, under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is leader of the consortium developing the large, Anaklia Deep Sea port infrastructure project, among others.
Not long ago, Georgia was stabilizing and trending toward the West and future NATO membership. Today, the influence of Russia’s “borderization” tactics are shifting its occupation line deeper into Georgia as it is simultaneously being challenged economically by Beijing. BRI projects underscore China’s growing economic footprint as its moves westward into areas that once were solely under Russia’s sphere of influence. Chinese-made customs control systems have been installed at Georgia’s border checkpoints, including Sadakhlo, Kartsakhi, Kazbegi, Red Bridge, Ninotsminda, and Sarpi, according to reports from the Foreign Policy Research Institute. It suggests that while these installations aim to enhance trade efficiency, they have raised serious concerns regarding the country’s trade infrastructure and national security. Today there are a number of Chinese-led highway modernization projects that will help further China’s requirement for transportation inroads into Russia and Europe.
The $1 billion Rikoti Pass Road being constructed by Chinese companies includes a 32-mile stretch through the Rikoti Pass in central Georgia with 96 bridges and 53 tunnels, according to Radio Free Europe. China is also building a six-mile tunnel, the longest in the Caucasus, through the Sadzele Mountain. The Chinese company, Sinohydro, is leading the Kobuleti Bypass project. It constructed sections of the Bypass, which is aimed at improving traffic flow along Georgia’s Black Sea coast. The bypass includes tunnels and bridges to facilitate smoother transportation. Georgian political, military, and economic stability is under attack by the great powers of the communist world. As a result, its statehood is being derailed in Tbilisi’s attempt to move along its intended Euro-Atlantic integration path.
China is making major inroads economically. Russia is, too, while also continuing its occupation of two small counties in the northern border areas of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia’s territorial control allows it to challenge Georgia’s sovereignty, independent political leadership, and deters its ability to enter NATO. The Kremlin is exerting control without employing kinetic warfare. It is, however, just as deadly as Kremlin interference increases the risk of authoritarian rule expanding among the country’s ruling elites and serves as a potential flashpoint for war.
Intelligence analysts in Washington say that while Georgia has demonstrated strong public resistance to these efforts, the “growing authoritarian tendencies of its ruling elites—aided by Russian interference—pose a severe risk to the country’s future.” Russia’s normalization policy has evolved into a rollback of democratic institutions and realignment with Moscow.
Only two years ago, Georgia was granted candidate status to enter the European Union. Since then, Georgia has turned away from the historic opportunity and reintroduced a Moscow-influenced “Foreign Agents’ Law” to silence critics in civil society and what remains of its independent media. When the populace objected for 85 straight days of mass protest, the government cracked down brutally on them. Analysts suggest that the Kremlin’s propaganda in Georgia helps by promoting appeasement as the path to stability while portraying the West as a disruptor.
Georgia’s geostrategic location makes it a vital link between Europe and Central Asia. Soft great power politics permeates the Georgian political landscape from China on its East and Russia, with growing anti-American and West European rhetoric again dominating the country’s media.
Russian and Chinese tactics target emerging democratic societies worldwide, often working silently, and eroding trust in institutions by manipulating political discourse. It demands a coordinated response from NATO, the European Union, and democratic allies to counter China and Russia’s tactics and to sernly warn those powers against replicating their anti-democratic tactics elsewhere around the globe.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
Illustration: Pixabay