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Quick Analysis

Moscow’s Nuclear Influence Grows

Russia and Rosatom are on the move in Southeast Asia. While China actively pursues its military and economic operations in Southeast Asia, Rosatom is expanding its nuclear energy involvement in the region. Rosatom and Vietnam Electricity signed a new memorandum of the development of nuclear energy six days before President Trump returned to the Oval Office. It creates a long-term commitment for both countries to cooperate in the areas of power plant maintenance, fuel supply, and dispensing. According to Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear energy technology is one of its key foreign-oriented sectors, with numerous power plants under construction in countries such as Bangladesh, Türkiye, China, Egypt, India, and Hungary. The new administration in Washington is concerned that the agreement has negative implications for Western sanctions policies. It appears that it may allow Russia to do an end run around current restrictions. Rosatom’s director, Valerii Likhachev, announced the resumption of construction of the Ninh Thuận-1 nuclear power plant, suspended in 2016, according to Mikael Pir-Budagyan, of the Eurasia Daily Monitor. On January 15, Izvestiya reported that Russia is also scheduled to build a research reactor in Vietnam with the project starting in 2027. The Trump Administration, according to analysts in Washington, will face new challenges as Russia revitalizes its footprint in the region. Earlier this week, Rosatom officials claimed that the nuclear energy industry has been the hallmark of its capacity to outcompete foreign counterparts by offering one-stop-shop projects that include most, if not all, necessary stages of power plant construction, expedited licensing, and lucrative contractual terms. Historical data suggests that these types of Russian contracts are designed to last for decades. Pir-Budagyan notes that reports out of Russia suggest that Rosatom’s foreign revenue has doubled since 2017. Last October Likhachev pointed out that Rosatom was expecting to receive $18 billion in foreign revenue for the year and owned eighty-three percent of the global nuclear power plant market. The Southeast Asia region represents more than a financial win in nuclear energy power for Russia. It is also about improving national pride during a time when Moscow has few accomplishments to cite in its war in Ukraine, now dragging into its third year. “Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly praises Rosatom’s overseas projects and has called them the “best in the world” in terms of technical sophistication and safety standards,” according to Pir-Budagyan. As of this month, Rosatom itself has avoided direct Western sanctions, although its subsidiaries have been targeted by the US Treasury, along with some Rosatom officials. Southeast Asia, according to a 2024 International Energy Agency report, is one of the fastest-growing areas and contributes twenty-five percent of the projected increase in global energy demand by 2035. The Agency points out that within twenty-five years it will surpass the European Union’s total energy consumption. “On an institutional level, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has consistently reaffirmed its interest in exploring nuclear energy cooperation with Russia,” notes Pir-Budagyan. ASEAN’s strategic plan, called the Comprehensive Plan of Action (CPA) and the ASEAN-Russia Work Plan on Energy Cooperation for 2022–2025, identified nuclear energy as a focus area beginning in 2021. In Indonesia, Rosatom is actively engaging with national agencies and institutions to promote its small modular reactor (SMR) technologies. It received recognition in 2024 as the “Best Nuclear Technology Supplier” at the Electricity Connect 2024 event. “In Myanmar,” says Pir-Budagyan, “Rosatom is advancing an SMR project under a 2023 intergovernmental agreement. It is also involved in education, with Russian experts and Myanmar institutions partnering on training programs and science festivals to build local expertise.” From 2019-2025, according to Likhachev, Rosatom trained approximately 400 Vietnamese workers by employing them in the firm’s projects in other countries. This newest agreement puts Russia back on track to finish the construction of Ninh Thuận 1 and is likely to lead to additional construction projects in Southeast Asia at a time when China is also increasingly aggressive in its foreign moves. ASEAN’s goal of obtaining carbon neutrality by 2050 is driving many Southeast Asian states into increasing their ties with Moscow. The consequences are significant for the free world. New, regional long-term commitments provides Russia a major role in the area. As more states use complex Russian nuclear technology it will be increasingly challenging to divest those countries of ties with Moscow, Rosatom and its subsidiaries. Sanction may work in the initial development stage but as plans progress, they could end up posing safety concerns once new nuclear plants are in operation. Russia still must overcome a number of hurdles, including fragmented politics in the region and local public opinion, and safety concerns. Western companies, should they decide to compete, will need government support to remain competitive. The Trump Administration needs to add the Southeast Asian nuclear market to a growing list of concerns in the region. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay