Is paramount leader Xi Jinping (习近平) in trouble? At the Chinese seaside resort Beidaihe, high-ranked leaders and invited elders of the CCP held their annual summer, closed-door meeting to exchange viewpoints on topics of importance to China. Now 70 years old and under increasing pressure domestically from a floundering anemic economy, and internationally from foreign leaders upset with Beijing’s foreign and defense policies, some are speculating that Xi’s time in power may be entering its dénouement. Like many other authoritarian figures, Xi purges those who oppose him and his policies to maintain a tight-fisted, Machiavellian hold on political power. The recent purges are unusual in the breadth and depth that they cover.
Nikkei’s Katsuji Nakazawa reports that testimony by “sources familiar with China’s internal affairs offers a rare glimpse into the summer conclave: ‘Only several powerful and selected party elders were at Beidaihe this summer…One of the elders was from the People’s Liberation Army…. After a meeting with the elders, Xi vented his anger in front of close aides.’” Chinese communist leaders in the past have reassigned or purged military leaders who gained too much power or could threaten them. Xi is no different in his recent actions. However, this time Xi himself may be in danger of losing absolute control over the party and state.
During the summer it is believed Xi ordered several dozen officials detained or ousted. They were accused of failing to carry out orders, leaking state secrets, found corrupt, or thought to have committed other minor infractions. There is no public explanation from Beijing that explains Xi’s actions. It does give rise to the notion that Xi himself is no longer the sole puppet master, although younger officials who are aligned with the Xi Jinping Faction still hold a large number of seats on the CCP Central Committee, the Politburo, the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC), and in high-ranked PLA command positions. The extent of the purges, according to Western analysts, is broader and more extensive than expected.
One of Xi’s strongest supporters, Foreign Minister Qin Gang (秦刚), abruptly “disappeared” for more than eight weeks before officially losing his position to the former foreign minister, Wang Yi (王毅). Another mystery surrounds China’s Defense Minister, General Li Shangfu (李尚福), according to Willy Wo-Lap Lam of the Jamestown Foundation. Li had several decades of high-level managerial experience in China’s missile, space, and nuclear hardware procurement programs when he abruptly “disappeared” for three weeks, with China refusing to confirm if he still held his position at the time.
Earlier this month media reports revealed that Li was accused of massive corruption surrounding the purchasing of military equipment during his tenure as head of the CMC Equipment Development Department. He was detained on September 1. Voice of America reported last week that this coincides with a purge within the PLA Rocket Force. It appears that more than ten top-echelon Rocket Force officers, including its commander General Li Yuchao (李玉超) and political commissar General Xu Zhongbo (徐忠波) were brought in for investigation by military discipline departments and state security authorities. Accusations range from corruption charges to divulging secrets to American intelligence officers. According to Radio French’s International Chinese Edition, another of Xi’s close associates who is the First Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission, General Zhang Youxia (张又侠), may be in trouble, too. The fathers of Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia worked together in the PLA in Shaanxi in the 1940’s. Even that family association did not help Zhang.
“Xi’s decision to replace the ousted commander and political commissar of the Rocket Force with officers who have had no previous experience with missiles and other nuclear weapons is unconventional,” according to Lam. He adds that “Given that nuclear missiles and related weapons are expected to play a pivotal role in possible military maneuvers such as an invasion of Taiwan, putting two leaders with no experience in the technology-intense Rocket Force could not only have deleterious effects on the Force’s operational capabilities, but could also cause resentment among senior officers many of whom are well-trained aerospace engineers.”
Xi Jinping, in recent speeches to military troops, has emphasized the need for increased discipline and “absolute loyalty” in preparation for war. Although this has been a mantra of Xi’s since he assumed power in 2012, some military analysts in Washington consider it likely that Chinese plans for an invasion of Taiwan may have been compromised by those working on heavy-duty weapons, Chinese missiles and nuclear submarines. If the level of corruption is as widespread as some western officials think, it may be undermining Xi’s position as supreme leader and resulting in an increased questioning of his ability to select qualified key personnel. The smoldering discontent among high-ranked CCP officials and military officers familiar with the unusual purges may be some of the first signs of more turmoil to come in Beijing.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
Photo: Chinese Government