Inf Treaty – Russian Cheating And American Suspension

A report from the Republican Study Committee

Since 2014, Russia has violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by developing a ground-launched cruise missile.
Secretary of State Pompeo joined NATO in declaring that Russia was in material breach of the treaty on December 4, 2018. Russia had 60 days to return to compliance and did not do so.
On February 2, 2019, the United States suspended its compliance with the INF Treaty due to Russia taking no steps to address its violations. Under the terms of the treaty, the U.S. will withdraw formally from the INF Treaty in six months.

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Russia has been violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty since at least 2014, when it began developing an intermediate-range, ground-launched cruise missile. The INF Treaty prohibits ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, both nuclear and non-nuclear, with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, i.e., 300 to 3,400 miles. Russia’s violation of the treaty poses a significant threat to our European allies.

EUROPEAN ALLIES IN RANGE OF NEW RUSSIAN MISSILES

President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev signed the INF Treaty in 1987. At the time, the United States canceled a number of weapon systems including the Pershing ballistic missile program, and Russia and the United States destroyed thousands of weapons.

Beginning as early as the mid-2000s, the U.S. continued to comply with the INF Treaty while Russia did not, a common theme with U.S.-Russian arms-control treaties. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats has described how Russia violated the treaty by testing and flying a missile, the SSC-8, more than 500km. In recent months, Russia has deployed several operational battalions of the SSC-8 missile.

Any intermediate-range missile deployed in Russia poses significant risk to our European allies by making them much more vulnerable to a rapid attack. Russia would be able to threaten our allies in a way that we could not easily counter. The U.S. would be left with much weaker deterrence and defense capabilities.

In addition, China is not a party to the INF Treaty and is developing its own intermediate-range weapons. While the primary reason for withdrawing from the INF Treaty is Russia’s violations, the Trump administration is very concerned about our inability to counter Chinese aggression if we do not have intermediate-range forces to help defend our allies and interests in Asia. President Trump stated his openness to a future INF Treaty that could include China in the State of the Union address. He said that without a new treaty America would “outspend and out-innovate all others” when it comes to military capabilities. China has expressed opposition to a multilateral arms control treaty.

NATO SUPPORT FOR U.S. SUSPENSION OF COMPLIANCE

In a sign of the administration’s successful diplomacy with our strongest allies, NATO has announced its full support for the U.S. suspension of compliance with the INF Treaty. On December 4, 2018, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo joined NATO in declaring Russia to be in “material breach” of the treaty and warned the Kremlin to change course. Under the terms of the treaty, Russia had 60 days to return to compliance with the agreement. NATO has said if Russia does not comply with the treaty, it will take action to ensure the defense of member nations. The organization noted that “Russia will bear sole responsibility for the end of this treaty.”

On February 2, 2019, the United States suspended our compliance with the INF Treaty due to Russia taking no steps to address its violations. Under the terms of the treaty, the U.S. will withdraw formally from the INF Treaty in six months.

ADDITIONAL U.S. RESPONSE TO RUSSIA’S VIOLATION OF INF

Withdrawal is not the only option available to pressure the Russians into complying with the INF Treaty. The U.S. could notify Russia that we do not plan to extend the New START treaty when it expires in February 2021. The United States already complies with New START’s limits on deployed nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles.

Last year, the administration began research and development of conventional ground-launched intermediate-range systems as part of its response to Russia’s violation of the treaty; these efforts could be accelerated.

Currently, the U.S. relies primarily on high-yield nuclear weapons to respond to a nuclear attack. However, the U.S. could accelerate development and fielding of low-yield nuclear weapons and sea-launched cruise missiles. By having a wide spectrum of response capabilities and weapons we can launch from land, air, and sea, we can better deter Russian aggression.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.