India, U.S. Form Closer Relations

India is playing an increasingly vital role in maintaining peace in the Indo-Pacific realm. It possesses the world’s fourth most powerful military, according to Global Firepower, hwith 3,544,000 military personnel, 4,292 tanks, 285 ships (including an aircraft carrier) and 2,072 aircraft. India, according to the Arms Control Agency, also has approximately 150 nuclear weapons.

It’s strategic importance, as a democracy, in deterring China, is vast. While there no formal alliance of nations equivalent to NATO, India’s role, along with “Quad” members Australia, Japan and the United States serves a similar role in restraining an increasingly aggressive and powerful Chinese Communist regime.

That importance was recently emphasized in the U.S- India “Two-plus-Two” Conference among the defense and foreign affairs leaders of both nations, which charted just how far cooperation between the two democracies has come.

15 years ago, the two nations signed a basic framework agreement on military relations.

The October meeting, held in New Delhi, brought together Defense Secretary Dr. Mark T. Esper, Secretary of States Mike Pompeo, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar and Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. It was the third meeting at this level between the two nations.

Prior to the meeting Esper and Singh sat down to substantive discussions in the Indian Ministry of Defense. Esper and Pompeo also spoke with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The meeting covered a number of areas in the defense relationship. In military-to-military cooperation, the men discussed how to “operationalize” the logistics agreement. They also talked about assigning liaison officers to both countries, in areas that would deepen cooperation. The U.S. Central Command and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command were two areas in the U.S. military discussed. Also discussed was information sharing and secure communications.

Secure communications was part of this discussion and both nations want to further the process and deepen the capability across services and at the leadership level. Another part of the discussion centered on new areas of cooperation both in the region and in the new military domains of cyber and space, the official said.

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Singh emphasized that his nation was faced by China’s “reckless aggression” on his northern border.

Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stressed that “We live in a more uncertain world with much greater stresses and sharper fault lines. For most countries, that means giving security a greater salience in their foreign policy. As major powers, this is even more so in our case. Over the last two decades, our bilateral relationship has grown steadily in its substance, assets, and significance. The accompanying comfort levels today enable us to engage much more intensively on matters of national security… at a time when it is particularly important to uphold a rules-based international order, the ability of India and the United States to work closely in defense and foreign policy has a larger resonance. Together we can make a real difference when it comes to regional and global challenges, whether it is in respecting territorial integrity, promoting maritime domain awareness, counterterrorism, or creating prosperity.”

The conference produced an agreement between the two nations on sharing strategic satellite date. “This enables greater geospatial information sharing between our two armed forces,” Esper noted. .”Based on our shared values and common interests, we stand shoulder-to-shoulder in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific for all, particularly in light of increased aggression and destabilizing activities by China.”

Both India and the U.S. seek to prevent Beijing from infringing on the “legitimate rights and interests” of nations bordering the South China Sea, where the powerful Chinese armed forces have intimidated neighboring nations, militarized sea lanes, and made unlawful claims.

India on Tuesday joined the U.S. in calling for the South China Sea Code of Conduct being negotiated by China and the Southeast Asian bloc to adhere to international law.

The statement “emphasized that the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea should not prejudice the legitimate rights and interests of any nation in accordance with international law.”

Photo: Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Secretary Michael R. Pompeo, Indian Minister of Defense Rajnath Singh, And Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaish (DoD photo)

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.