Imagine a frozen territory once thought to be a worthless, icy wasteland at the center of global competition among the world’s major military powers. That describes the vast expanses of the Arctic today. States in the region, plus China, are vying for influence and control of the area’s natural resources that include significant deposits of oil, gas, and strategic minerals. Rising temperatures and melting ice in recent years also have raised the possibility of a new, year-round, open Arctic passage that could cut weeks off commercial shipping times from Asia to Mediterranean and Atlantic ports. Perhaps more important are the military implications from rising competition among the most powerful states. The defense of North America is an area of increasing concern for the US.
“It is becoming increasingly apparent that competitors, such as Russia and the People’s Republic of China, desire to influence international norms and alter the behaviors of allies, partners and Arctic-focused countries for the benefit of these competitor nations. Russia and the PRC have made their intentions for the region clear through the promulgation of strategic documents that underline their commitment to the Arctic,” according to US Air Force General Glen D. Van Herck, writing in Defense News. Russia is militarizing the area and acting overtly to capitalize on the region’s infrastructure and resources. Enhancing its air and coastal defense capabilities and improving its nuclear deterrent credibility puts North America in a position of greater risk. Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine this year adds to the Pentagon concerns about the potential of an attack on North America through the Arctic region.
Russia’s geographic proximity to North America makes it the most acute security concern to US interests in the Arctic, according to Defense News. Add to this threat China’s self-proclaimed status as a “near Arctic nation,” although it is located over 900 miles from the region. China has improved its blue water naval capabilities, expanded its operational zones globally, and it now holds observer status on the Arctic Council with the Russian Federation chairing the Council until 2023. China’s enhanced threat capabilities coupled with its recent belligerent behavior in Asia raise the level of concern in Washington that its navy could become more involved in Arctic operations.
US national defense strategy calls for strengthening US deterrent capabilities and attaining military advantages through the expansion of joint force capabilities to deter the join Russian-Chinese threat. Washington’s goal is two-fold: maintain a stable Arctic region and an ability to deter any threat from competitor states to the US homeland.
“Executing large-scale joint and multinational force exercises under Arctic conditions exhibits credible deterrence while broadcasting robust US defense capabilities. These demonstrations, when messaged appropriately, have a profound deterrent effect on competitors, molding perceptions and shaping their actions,” according to Van Herck. This month the United States is opening the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies. It will be DOD’s newest regional center with a goal of focusing on building strong networks with domestic and international Arctic-minded security leaders. The Center will conduct focused analytical research aimed toward advancing the Defense Department’s priorities in the Arctic. Given the constraints on DOD’s budget, the opening of the Center highlights the importance Washington places on the region.
Van Herck argues that “Ceding the Arctic to competitors will result in accepting unnecessary risk to North America. The changing Arctic environment and increasing competitor activities in the region should invoke a sense of urgency in all of us. Efforts to develop and demonstrate Arctic capabilities, as well as establishing or strengthening multilateral organizations to address Arctic concerns, are clear indicators of progress.” Russia and China’s behavior in the Arctic also is of grave concern to Canada. In late June Ottawa pledged to spend over $30 billion over the next two decades to help detect and track military threats from Russia and China in the Arctic. It also pledged to modernize it capabilities to defend North America in alignment with NORAD. In March the combined US-Canadian North American Aerospace Defense Command held a yearly exercise in the Canadian Arctic, with the stated intention of testing their ability to “respond to both aircraft and cruise missiles threatening North America.”
If Russia decides to attack the US using nuclear missiles, they will fly over the Arctic region. The threat to Canada and the US, according to Canadian officials, could come in several forms, ranging from small-scale, and logistically extremely difficult, commando raids on Canadian facilities on its northernmost Ellesmere Island to nuclear-armed submarines prowling undetected under the Arctic ice. Given that Canada’s “domain awareness” capabilities are not able to defend against hypersonic missiles incoming over the Arctic, it will be up to the United States to protect North America. Russia and China’s devolving behavior raises the importance of watching the Arctic region for the Biden Administration and being prepared to take action, if necessary.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
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